DFS MLB FanDuel Home Run Predictions 5/31/19

Swingin’ for the Fences 

Hey guys. Sorry for the mini hiatus. I’ve been a bit busy as of late and considering how rough the series has been going, I thought it best to take it easy for a day or so. That said, I am back to try and lay some solid railroad for this train to start taking off. Every team in the league is busy tonight so that means we gotta buckle down and start narrowing down that power pool. We’re very blessed to not have any rainy forecasts tonight so it’s all systems go. I’ll be going back to the original format and try to pick different players from every game by position grouping. Now let’s get to it!

Catcher/Corner Infield

Renato Nuñez – $3,700 vs SFG (Pomeranz)

His average may be pretty sad….but his power numbers definitely aren’t. Nuñez is in the midst of a massive power surge, knocking out 5 dingers over his last 8 games, including a stretch of four in a row. Pomeranz is…..let’s just say not good. He has an ERA of nearly 6.50 and while his K% rate is decent, his BB% drags that down. He’s given up 9 HRs on the season and has shown very favorable splits to RHBs (8 of his 9 HRs) but if you’re on the path to a BAL stack, LHBs have hit Pomeranz pretty hard as well. The play is simple. Massive power surge meets a gas can. I don’t think you need to know much science to know the result of that.

Steve Pearce – $2,500 vs NYY (Happ)

The rivalry is once again renewed tonight with two high powered offenses. Both teams come into this with red hot bats. There’s just one difference: one team has a Cy Young award winner and the other doesn’t. Happ holds a 5.09 ERA over 58 innings this season. He’s been relatively stingy against LHBs, but RHBs hit him for a solid .265 average along with a .553 SLG percentage. While LHBs can barely get the ball off the ground (22% FB rate), RHBs are lifting it at a rate of 51% with a 41% hard contact rate. Pearce has been known as a renowned lefty masher in the DFS world and he gets to face a pitcher he’s had much success against. In 35 ABs against Happ, he’s amassed 11 hits, including a pair of doubles, 6 dongs, 5 walks, and just 5 strikeouts. Pearce’s average is no doubt even uglier than Nuñez’s, but he comes into this game having gotten a hit in 7 of his last 8 games. I love me some BOS RHBs today and Pearce is at the top of my list.

Middle Infield

Nolan Arenado/Trevor Story – $4,800/$4,600 vs TOR (Jackson)

The prices are obscene but this is quite possibly the easiest pick (knock on wood) that I’ve ever had to make with absolute minimal research. Jackson’s given up 5 HRs in just 14 innings. His strikeout stuff is almost nonexistent. He’s at Coors. Arenado is an NL MVP player. Story is the 2nd best power bat on this team. Arenado is batting .481 over the last 7 games with an ISO of .519. Story is batting .346 with an ISO of .308. Both have had multi HR games this season. [Insert Nike slogan here].

Corey Seager – $3,600 vs PHI (Arrieta)

After a slow start to the season, it seems like the young gun is finally turning things around. He’s batting .265 in the month of May and has 9 hits over the last six games with a a pair of HRs. Arrieta is coming off his best outing of the season but he does struggle a bit with his command and has allowed LHBs to hit him for a .283 average and a .491 SLG percentage. It also helps that he’s a career .338 batter against the sinker, which is the primary pitch in Arrieta’s arsenal. With these splits and a 59% hard contact rate over the last 7 games, I can see Seager and the Dodgers’ lefty bats knocking some out of the park.

Outfield

Starling Marte – $3,600 vs MIL (Chacin)

This game features two gas cans so get to narrowing down who you want from this game. For Chacin, he’s given up 11 long balls on the season while having a subpar BB% and K%. He once used to be a respectable ground ball pitcher but that has since taken a nosedive as both sides are hitting around 40% of his pitches into the outfield. Marte comes into this game in decent form, batting .367 over his last seven games with a .200 ISO and 201 wRC+. He also has a 35% line drive and flyball rate over this stretch so he’s definitely making decent contact and putting the ball in play. Add these all together and you get a high chance of getting a dinger.

*Braun is my favorite play from the MIL side

Juan Soto – $4,200 vs CIN (Mahle)

As his player card says, he’s been on one hell of a streak as of late with hits in 13 consecutive games. Over that same stretch, he’s knocked 3 HRs and 13 RBI. Talk about production. While Mahle isn’t a terrible pitcher, he’s coming off a horrendous outing in which he gave up 3 bombs in 5 innings against the Cubs. On the season, LHBs have hit him to the tune of .306 with a .546 slugging percentage. This lines up incredibly well for Soto’s current hot streak. While I do expect Mahle to bounce back, I do expect him to serve at least another to our boy Juan.

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That does it for today. There are quite a few gas cans today to take advantage with very minimal weather problems so be sure to have plenty of exposure. If you have a preference to the other format I had for the smaller slate, please reach out to me @gr33nappleboy and let me know. Until then, good luck!

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