DFS MLB FanDuel Home Run Predictions 6/12/19

Swingin’ for the Fences 

Hey…guess what day it is? Guess what day it is….it’s hump day! Today we got a nice platter of 8 games for us to choose from as well as game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals. To St. Louis and Boston fans, best of luck to you. If you win, party safe. If you lose, at least you won’t have a morning hangover. With that out of the way, let’s dive back into some MLB action.

Catcher/Corner Infield

Kyle Seager – $3,100 vs MIN (Berrios)

It’s never a safe bet to go against Berrios at home but I think Seager defies those odds and sneaks one out tonight. While Berrios does show very favorable ERA at home (2.72), his average allowed is actually noticeably higher (.263 against .210 on the road). He does give up some HRs from time to time as indicated by his 1.2 HR/9 and .386 SLG% allowed. On the season, he’s allowed better batted ball statistics for LHBs despite a .222 average. They have a 22.3 LD%, 42.9 FB%, and 39% HC. Majority of Seattle’s power comes from the right side which limits us to Vogelbach and Seager. While both are perfectly viable as one-offs, I’ll give the edge to Seager who’s batting .314 against RHBs and is 3-8 lifetime against Berrios with a double and two dongs.

TOR/BAL starters – $2,100 – $3,700 (Hess/Jackson)

Combined, Hess and Jackson have allowed 28 HRs in just over 80 IP. That’s a HR/9 of 3.15. They allow a .329 average on 44.5 HC% with a sub 20% K rate. Don’t overthink this. This game was a match made in the DFS heavens. Any warm body that sees the field tonight has a pretty decent chance of hitting it out in one of the league’s friendliest ball parks known to man.

Middle Infield

Ozzie Albies – $3,100 vs PIT (Keller)

Keller made his major league debut earlier this season against the Reds and was only able to last 4 innings while allowing 6 ER. A few solid minor league starts later, he’s back at it with Kingham being taken out of the rotation. This time, the matchup is much less friendly. The Braves have the 6th best wRAA (weighted runs above average) and are top 10 at home in ISO, BABIP, and wRC+ among others. Albies has just recently joined in contributing to those categories. He’s been far from form so far this season as demonstrated by his demotion to the butt of the order. Prior to Monday, he had gone 32 games (!!!) without a single HR. Now, he’s knocked out 3 over his last couple games. He’s hit .304 over the past week with a ISO of .348, HC% of 36.4, and a walk rate of 20%. I think Keller gives us another repeat performance of his debut and we should be sure to gets some ready against him.

Fernando Tatis Jr. – $3,600 vs SFG (Anderson)

While Anderson has overall been solid, he’s been slightly prone to the long ball (1.29 HR/9) while allowing a 39.8 HC% and 29.3 LD%. He’s been exceptional at keeping the ball down against LHBs but the RHBs have a noticeable edge with a FB% almost double those from the left side. Meanwhile, Tatis has gone 10 for his last 21 with a double, a pair of HRs, and a rate of 50% for hard contact. I almost never feel comfortable suggesting Padres, especially in a park like this but I do think the kid gets a hold of one.

Outfield

Scott Kingery – $2,900 vs ARI (Kelly)

Last time I suggested to target Kelly on the road, the result was a dud. What I failed to realize is that TOR is among the worst teams in the league at home with a pathetic dead-last wOBA of .242. The Phillies aren’t exactly a juggernaut at home but they’re not as sad. They have a .284 wOBA and a 102 wRC+. As mentioned in that previous article, the way to attack Kelly is from the right side (.273 average, .484 SLG%, 1.73 HR/9, 38.6 HC%). The Phils have a couple hot hitting right handed bats in their lineup and one of them is Kingery. 6 of his last 8 hits have gone for extra bases, including 3 HRs over his last 2 games. For some strange reason, he’s still remains absurdly priced under $3K. PHI is not TOR so I’m definitely expecting different results tonight.

Marcell Ozuna – $4,300 vs MIA (Yamamoto)

You must be tired of seeing his name….to be honest, I am too but he continues to be the only Cardinal that’s worth something these days and he has the power to hit it out any day of the week. Today he gets a matchup against Yamamoto who is making his ML debut. His stuff is far from overpowering and can be likened to maybe Jered Weaver, where his fastball tops around the mid to upper 80s. He’s also considered a flyball pitcher. While he was solid last season, he’s struggled slightly so far this season in the minors 3.58 ERA with his problems coming against RHBs (4.78 ERA in 37.2 IP, 20 ER, 6 HRs). Ozuna has been batting .409 over the past week with a 53% HC rate. If there’s anybody today that hits a HR, it should be Ozuna.

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That just about does it for today’s piece. There are quite a bit of cheap power bats for the taking so be sure to take advantage of it. Also, as a staunch reminder, do not waste the DFS Gods’ gift of a game in Camden. Just do it…..T__T. Anyways, happy hunting and bombs away!

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