DFS MLB FanDuel Home Run Predictions 6/15/19

Swingin’ for the Fences 

Congratulations to the Raptors and Blues for winning their first ever franchise championships. Condolences to the Bruins and especially the Warriors who suffered three torn muscles and a broken collarbone. You never wish that on anybody. Moving on from that, now we can devote our full attention to MLB action. Hopefully any hangover you guys might have are over since we got 8 games on tap for the main slate…so strap in and let’s get this show on the road.

Catcher/Corner Infield

Marwin Gonzalez – $3,200 vs KAN (Sparkman)

I think it’s safe to say that Sparkman doesn’t like pitching away from home. In 3 starts this season on the road, he’s only gone a total of 7.2 innings with an ERA of 8.33. Lucky for us, he’s on the road. Even luckier for us, he’s going up against the stupidly good offense that is the Twins, who have scored 36 runs over the last 5 games. LHBs have been the way to go against Sparky with a .292 average, .492 SLG%, 41.5 FB%, and 48.2% HC. While I would love to repeat Kepler and Castro again, I’ll mention another guy that’s appeared before. Gonzalez is batting a scorching .391 over the last week with a .261 ISO and 73% HC; while his 35% K rate is quite high, Sparkman has a K rate of less than 15% so the risk is very minimal. Twins LHBs make for a very strong stack tomorrow. Don’t miss out.

Freddie Freeman – $4,000 vs PHI (Nola)

There’s two criterion to look for when going against Nola. One: Is he on the road? Two: Does the opposing team have good LHBs? If both questions are a yes, a stack is in play. Nola has a 6.75 ERA on the road so far this season and allows a .311 average with a .541 SLG%. While Nola does have a very good strikeout rate (25.7%), Freeman has stuck out just 13% of the time over the last two weeks so that won’t do Nola any good. Freeman comes in batting .321 over this stretch with a .396 ISO, 33.3% LD rate, and 64.4% HC. With a warm game time temp and some healthy winds, I see no reason why Freeman won’t hit it out tonight.

Middle Infield

Tim Anderson – $3,600 vs NYY (Sabathia)

Sabathia has been relying on his deception over the last several years to get people out and induce ground balls and he’s been quite good at it. Elite, actually….which makes his current performance a little bit puzzling. Last season, he had a flyball rate of 33.5% and a hard contact rate of just 23.4% over 153 IP. This season, that flyball rate has increased to 43% and the hard contact is at 48%. The only thing that has remained constant are his splits in which RHBs have a massive favor. They own 12 of his 14 HRs allowed this season with a .263 average and .550 SLG%. Tim Anderson has a split of .281 on the season against lefties and comes in hitting .273 over the past week with a .227 ISO. He also has a 35% flyball rate in this stretch along with a 59% hard contact rate. Also, according to park factor, Guaranteed Rate Field has been the 3rd friendliest for all batters in terms of HRs. I believe a mini CWS stack could be in play and Anderson would be my first pick.

Marcus Semien – $3,500 vs SEA (LeBlanc)

LeBlanc has been a little annoying to pinpoint this season but once again the numbers are there to support stacking against him. He has a HR/9 of nearly 2 against one of the best teams against LHPs with a FB% of over 47 and SLG above .500 to both sides. He faced OAK on the 24th and went 5 innings while allowing 4 ERs on 5 hits, two of them being dongs. Semien comes in batting .400 over the past week with a slash line of .438/.700/1.138 and ISO of .300. He also has a FB% of 50 and HC% of 46 in this stretch. He’s one of the more consistent bats to trust in this OAK lineup and I trust that he can get the job done against LeBlanc.

Outfield

Carlos Gomez – $2,500 vs STL (Wacha)

Wacha looked good in his last start….but it was against the Marlins, so I’m not looking much into it. While he does relatively well in the groundball department, he still suffers massive splits to RHBs. On the season, they’re batting .313 with a huge SLG% of .582 over 34 IP. Much of that can be attributed to that fact that he’s allowed 10 HRs to them for a HR/FB% rate of 34.5.%. That’s pretty damn high. It just so happens that the Mets have a guy named Carlos who is hitting the ball pretty damn hard and oh, he’s a righty. He’s batting .357 over the past week with a .429 ISO, FB% of 47, and a LD% of 43. Personally, I think Gomez is a massive piece of sugar honey iced tea….but he’s in a good spot here so I won’t stop you if you decide to play him.

Danny Santana – $3,100 vs CIN (Roark)

Today is a rather fun day to look at pitchers as there’s a good deal of them with pretty obvious splits. Roark is no different. RHBs have only hit Roark at a .229 clip and a measly .249 wOBA. LHBs on the other hand have had great success with a .306 average and a .397 wOBA with .509 SLG to match. He also allows a 33.3% LD rate as well as a 44.7% FB rate. Santana comes in batting .280 over the last week with a .240 ISO and a warm, humid environment at his aid. Roark has given up 3 dongs over his last two starts and a matchup against a top 5 team against RHP pitching will not help. Load up on lefty bats.

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The breakdown of day 1 without any basketball or hockey is now finished! With no more distractions in the way, we’re free to put in more research in scouring those bombs out. There are some pretty fun stacks out there today so get your exposure. Good luck!

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