DFS MLB FanDuel Home Run Predictions 6/2/19

Swingin’ for the Fences 

Yesterday got off to a rather slow start in terms of overall offense and power for the main slate but at least somewhat relieved Smoak salvaged the article. Today we have another manageable 7 game slate with an abnormal amount of strong winds blowing out to the bleachers so hopefully Mother Nature can help us out a bit today. The pitching crop today isn’t too shabby but there are always going to be HRs hit and we gotta look for them so let’s not waste any more time.

Catcher/Corner Infield

Mike Moustakas – $3,800 vs PIT (Lyles)

After a very solid start to the season, Lyles has buckled in his last two outings, giving up 9 runs in just over 9 IP. On the season, he’s shown stark splits in favor of LHBs, allowing an average of .268 as opposed to .169 for RHBs. That’s already a big red flag for a matchup against MIL who boasts a load of power lefty bats. He’s also been slightly worse at home, allowing a .257 average compared to .158 on the road. All in all, the weather isn’t the only thing that’s not too rosy. Moose meanwhile has slammed four dingers over his last 7 games, including a 4 hit game with a double dong. He did come out of the game on yesterday after being HBP but he wanted to stay in so I assume he should be good to go for today’s contest.

Joey Votto – $2,700 vs WAS (Scherzer)

It’s already weird that I’m choosing someone that’s going up against Scherzer. What’s even weirder is that Votto is sub 3K. His power has somehow dissipated when he was usually a top tier slugger last season. That being said, he remains a well-above average contact hitter with good plate discipline. Over the past week, he’s batted an obscene .611 with a .579 BABIP and a 42% line drive rate. As for points we can pick at for Scherzer, he’s been a little shaky against LHBs this season (.287 BA, .452 SLG) and has been slightly worse on the road (3.82 ERA, .272 BA compared to 2.89 ERA, .236 BA at home). Votto isn’t completely new to Scherzer as they have faced each other 15 times. He’s 4-15 with a double, HR, and 3 walks. Votto is swinging a very hot bat so who knows what might happen.

Middle Infield

Jonathan Villar – $3,400 vs SFG (Samardzija)

Camden has proven to be quite the venue for offenses to thrive so far this season. As far as park factors go, Camden is the 6th friendliest for runs scored, 3rd for HRs, and 9th in hits. If an ace isn’t pitching in this park, it’s probably a good idea to take a look at that game. Samardzija has given up 10 HRs this season and has been terrible on the road with a 5.46 ERA. I don’t think that’s very ace-like. He’s had problems with LHB power and while Villar isn’t likely someone who falls under that category, he’s been flexing a little bit of muscle. Over his last 7 games, he’s gone 10-24 with a pair of doubles and HRs for an ISO of .400. On a team that’s been putting runs on the board, he stands a cut above the rest.

Niko Goodrum – $3,200 vs ATL (Teheran)

Teheran has been weirdly good this season and it’s scaring the hell out of me. Batters are only hitting .208 off him with a sub .300 wOBA in a hitter’s ballpark. He has a respectable ERA. LHBs have only hit 2 HRs off him. Everything we know about him has been wrong so far. Something’s gotta crack, right? He’s still a flyball pitcher that allows 40%+ hard contact. He’s due for a bit of negative regression, especially against lefties, and that’s where I’ll take a stab with Goodrum. He’s coming off a recent 5 hit performance with a double dong and is hitting .310 with a .345 ISO over the past week. The only other players who’ve posted better power numbers have been Castellanos and Dixon and neither excite me all that much. Goodrum has a 62% flyball rate over this stretch with a hard contact rate of 43%. I think he has the best shot and exorcising whatever is possessing Teheran right now.

Outfield

Austin Meadows – $4,500 vs MIN (Odorizzi)

Odorizzi has been fantastic so far this season. Five of his last six outings have been shutout performances and in each he’s displayed good strikeout stuff. He’s not exactly a pitcher to pick on but something’s gotta give in this game. Odorizzi has been lights out at home but has leaked a few more runs on the road this season so that’s a point in our favor. Odorizzi has a slight split in favor of LHBs. Point two. He’s also a massive flyball pitcher. Big point number 3. Meadows has been playing out of his mind over his last 7 games, going 15-30 with a pair of doubles, a trio of HRs, and six multi-hit performances. I think it’s safe to say he’s feeling it right now. He’s been mashing every pitch he sees, as evidenced by a minuscule 4% soft contact rate in this stretch. This is a pitcher’s ballpark but today has one of the friendliest environments in terms of weather and wind. I like his chance of pulling one to the bleachers in right.

Marcell Ozuna – $4,300 vs CHC (Hamels)

I was struggling between Ozuna and Heyward for this final spot right but I think I’m leaning towards the former at the moment. Hamels has been less than stellar in his last two performances, giving up 9 runs on 16 hits in just 8 IP. He’s shown very noticeable splits this season which makes things easier to analyze. RHBs hit him at a .272 clip with a .440 SLG% while sporting a 4.73 ERA on the road. While he has done a good job keeping the ball on the ground, I’m willing to take a chance against it with Ozuna who has knocked 2 out of the park over the last four games. RHBs have a 43.6% hard contact rate against Hamels and Ozuna has had decent success against Hamels in his career. Call it a gut feeling but I think he comes through once again.

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This writeup has gotten be a bit hyped for today’s slate. I have a good a idea of who I want to target and hopefully I’ve helped you towards narrowing down your player pool as well. All that’s left to do is just pick and pray. Good luck!

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