DFS MLB FanDuel Home Run Predictions 6/5/19

Swingin’ for the Fences 

Well yesterday was an interesting day to say the least. Snell gave up a grand slam. Marlins somehow put up 16 runs. The O’s and Braves both put up 12. Rangers and Astros also jumped in the fun with 11 and five other teams had 9. Balls juiced much? In any case, today we have another 12 games to take advantage of and hopefully the bats can continue this onslaught for another day. The downside is that almost all games have a forecast of some kind of rain which does put a bit of a damper on things but no worries. There’s always going to be a gas can or two that helps to brighten the day.

Catcher/Corner Infield

Freddie Freeman – $4,300 vs PIT (Musgrove)

Let’s just say that Musgrove is very happy that May is over. He had a dazzling start to 2019, compiling a 1.54 ERA over March/April and allowing a batting average of just .192. Since then, he’s allowed a .302 batting average with an ERA over 8. To put it in context, he gave up triple the amount of runs he allowed in his first two months in the month of May. Now, he gets to face a power team in ATL at home where he’s struggled (6.41 ERA). He has given up 4 of his 5 long balls on the season over the last 3 outings and has a massive split that favors LHBs. I don’t know about you but Freeman became an auto lock as soon as I came across it. He hasn’t been exactly crushing of late but all he needs is the right matchup and this sure as heck fits that category.

Jason Castro – $2,800 vs CLE (Carrasco)

It’s hard to believe now that Carrasco was once a Cy Young award candidate. He’s 4-6 this season with an ERA approaching 5 and both sides slugging over .500 against him. He’s given up 14 bombs in 65 IP with 10 of them being at home. He can be attacked from both sides but lefties have the upper hand with the .587 slugging percentage. Castro is a returning pick in this article and while he isn’t mashing like he was not too long ago, he’s still swinging a pretty hot bat. He’s gone 8 for his last 18 and a BABIP nearing .600 over the last two weeks. While bats like Cron and Cruz figure to be higher owned, Castro should fly under the radar as a cheap bat for easy production and a possible sneaky bomb.

Middle Infield

Mike Moustakas – $4,000 vs MIA (Alcantara)

While Alcantara hasn’t exactly been terrible, he hasn’t been too sharp either. His last outing marked the fifth time giving up 3+ walks and was fortunate enough to escape unscathed against a weak team in a pitcher’s park. This time he isn’t so lucky. Today he faces a team that walks nearly 10% of the time against RHPs with a .200+ ISO in one of the friendliest hitting environments in baseball.  He has a 5.11 ERA on the road and allows a .397 slugging percentage to LHBs. Moose comes in swinging a hot bat with a ton of power and a penchant for crushing sinkers and changeups. He’s knocked 5 out of the yard over the last couple weeks with a 43% hard contact rate and .556 ISO over this past week. Moose has done me wrong a couple times but I still believe in him.

Xander Bogaerts – $4,400 vs KCR (Junis)

Bogaerts has been flat out raking the ball. In his last 7 games, he’s recorded five multi-hit performances, with four doubles and three dingers . Junis has given up multiple HRs in three of his past 5 outings. The play is rather simple. The game time temp is going to be an abnormally toasty 85 degrees so expect the ball to incur some extra reward points for mileage in the early going with this Boston offense.

Outfield

Dexter Fowler – $2,800 vs CIN (DeSclafani)

The breakdown on DeSclafani is rather easy. DeSclafani, on average, has given up at least one HR every 3, 4 IP (14 HRs in 54.1 IP). LHBs hit him for a .321 average compared to .196 for RHBs. Here’s the real knocker: LHBs have a .670 SLG% against him. That’s not a typo. Out of the 34 hits he’s given up to them, an absurd 18 of them have been XBHs. Fowler’s been extremely hit or miss and he’s coming off a “hit” game in which he homered. Dating back to the beginning of May, he’s either given you a base or two, or homered and given you double digits. He has a 33% line drive rate over the last week and has a .350 average on fastballs. This is a pretty risky play but one that can give you an edge over the field.

David Dahl – $3,600 vs CHC (Darvish)

Dahl is yet another one of my favorite guys to use this season. He hits for a high average, drives in runs well, and has some pop. In his last 7 games, he’s hit at a .500 clip with a 1.306 OPS. With Blackmon out for the time being, the young gun has been making the most of it. Meanwhile, Darvish has struggled with control all season. To put it into perspective, he’s had 12 starts so far this year. He’s walked 2+ in 10 of those games and 3+ in 9 of them. Then you figure in his HR problems where he’s allowed 11 on the season, including 3 of them just two starts ago. LHBs have been the way to go so far this season against Darvish with a .272 average and .505 SLG%. I don’t know about you but I think Dahl figures into that equation quite well.

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Hope you guys enjoyed today’s edition! The power bats have set in motion and now we just wait and see if that momentum can keep going. I feel like today’s piece has a good mixture of cheap and power guys to turn to so hopefully they work out for ya!

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