DFS MLB GPP Lineup Advice: Wednesday 4/18/18 (Main)

There are seven games scheduled tonight on the DraftKings main slate, with a lot of great pitchers taking the mound. The hitting options are interesting, just a few obvious teams which will likely carry ownership. Make sure to stay up-to-date on weather and starting lineups before locking in your lineup. Let’s take a look at some great GPP options for tonight’s set of games.

Pitchers

Gerrit Cole (HOU): $11,900 @ SEA
The Astros starter will be the highest owned pitcher on this slate, but it will be hard to fade. In his first three starts, Cole is averaging 36.1 DraftKings points per game. And he only has one win! As a result, DraftKings reduced his price to below $12,000. Does not make any sense. Cole has been amazing this season and should be in line for another great game tonight. The only reason to not roster Gerrit Cole tonight is ownership. Game theory would suggest fading Cole in GPP’s and pivot to another top-tier pitcher, hoping Cole is somewhat average tonight.

Jose Berrios (MIN): $11,000 vs. CLE
In Puerto Rico, be assured that the native Jose Berrios is jacked up to pitch in this game. In front of friends and family, this could be the ultimate narrative of the MLB season (Francisco Lindor homered last night and was very close to hitting two more out of the park). He will be the obvious pivot off Gerrit Cole for a similar price. Again, the ownership will be high because of the narrative. We have seen how talented this kid is and he could easily strikeout 10+ hitters tonight. That being said, Cleveland is a very tricky lineup to get through. With two great switch-hitting bats and five other lefties, Berrios will be in a tough situation. On top of that, Cleveland will look to Carlos Carrasco who is an ace in his own right, making the Twins win tough to come by.

Robbie Ray (ARI): $10,000 vs. SF
I will be 100% all in on Robbie Ray. The two previous pitchers mentioned are of course great options and could be the highest scoring pitchers on the slate. No doubt. However, we just saw Patrick Corbin throw a complete game shutout with eight K’s against this very Giants team. All of the supposedly good hitters on San Francisco are struggling mightily. Evan Longoria is now out for a few days and Pablo Sandoval has replaced him. This weakens an already watered down lineup. Ray throws a lot of great breaking balls which induce a ton of swing and misses. With so much attention on Cole and Berrios, Ray should come in a lot lower owned tonight in a high-upside game.

Chris Stratton (SF): $4,800 @ ARI
Rostering two pitchers facing off against each other is certainly not an optimal lineup construction strategy. We want both pitchers getting the win for additional points. However, to win a GPP, we are looking for around 180 DraftKings points (every night is different, obviously). For that, each player rostered would have to score 3.6 times their salary. For Gerrit Cole, we need 42.8 DK points ($11.9×3.6=42.8). At just $4,800, Chris Stratton needs 17.3 DraftKings points for the same production. In his last outing, Stratton scored 25.4 DraftKings points against the Padres. We know the upside is there. Arizona is a good team with a lot of intimidating hitters. But, the D-Backs are striking out 25.5% of the time and are middle of the pack in other hitting categories. Stratton does not need to throw a gem. He just needs to have a solid outing with some strikeouts in order to pay off value. This will also allow you to pay up for one stud pitcher, along with heavy hitters.

Hitting Stacks

Chalk – High owned stacks

1.) Houston Astros 
As of now, before the lines swing too much, there are three teams seemingly stealing the majority of ownership. The Houston Astros will be the first team. With the second highest implied team run total, set at 4.51, most will look to stack the right-handed hitters against lefty Mike Leake. I personally have faded Houston all season long and it has worked out just fine. Be aware, this team will break out in a big way soon. They are one of the best teams in baseball and are due to score 10-15 runs in a game very soon. My point is that there is no need to eat chalk when there are comparable pivots.

2.) Arizona Diamondbacks 
This is my favorite team to stack, usually. They have a lineup that gets on base and are great at stringing together runs. There is speed in this lineup and in 2017, they were the number one team in the MLB for using the “double-steal” strategy. On top of that, Chase Field is a great hitters park to compliment the power-hitting bats in the lineup. All of that being said, there is no reason to play these hitters when they carry high ownership. With just 14 teams on the board tonight, Arizona has the highest implied run total and are facing the least expensive priced pitcher on DraftKings. With so much interest in Stratton, I will fade the D-Backs and roster them on a full slate where they go overlooked, as usual.

Low owned stacks

LA Dodgers
They won’t be as low-owned as last night, but being overweight on the field is a strategy to be considered. Luis Perdomo will take the mound for the Padres and look to silence the Dodgers. Perdomo is coming off his five-game suspension, missing just one scheduled start. In 2017, Perdomo struggle with left-handed power hitters owning a .349 wOBA. Although Petco Park is pitcher friendly, the likes of Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger are both capable of taking Perdomo yard.

Philadelphia Phillies 
Although seemingly in rebuild mode, the Phillies continue to find ways to win. Tonight, they will see veteran Brandon McCarthy. The righty is off to a 2-0 start but hasn’t shown any strikeout upside. With how hot the Phillies are, in an extremely hitter-friendly ballpark, this is a game which could see a lot of runs scored. Load up on the left-handed hitters for Philadelphia who can launch balls over the short porch at SunTrust Park.

Position-by-position

Catcher
Yasmani Grandal $3,800 @ SD
Evan Gattis $3,700 @ SEA
Jorge Alfaro $3,100 @ ATL
Kurt Suzuki $2,900 vs. PHI

First Base
Freddie Freeman $5,100 vs. PHI
Hanley Ramirez $4,600 @ LAA
Cody Bellinger $4,500 @ SD
Carlos Santana $4,300 @ ATL
Yuli Gurriel $4,100 @ SEA

Second Base
Jose Altuve $5,000 @ SEA
Ozzie Albies $4,400 vs. PHI
Kike Hernandez $3,900 @ SD

Third Base
Alex Bregman $4,300 @ SEA
Scott Kingery $4,100 @ ATL
Maikel Franco $3,700 @ ATL

Shortstop
Carlos Correa $5,100 @ SEA
Corey Seager $4,400 @ SD
Andrelton Simmons $3,600 vs. BOS
Dansby Swanson $3,500 vs. PHI

Outfield
Mike Trout $5,500 vs. BOS
Mookie Betts $5,300 @ LAA
Bryce Harper $5,200 @ NYM
Rhys Hoskins $5,100 @ ATL
George Springer $5,000 @ SEA
Yasiel Puig $4,600 @ SD
Justin Upton $4,500 vs. BOS
Josh Reddick $4,100 @ SEA
Odubel Herrera $4,000 @ ATL
Matt Kemp $3,900 @ SD
Chris Taylor $3,800 @ SD
Ender Inciarte $3,300 vs. PHI
Aaron Altherr $3,100 @ ATL
Nick Williams $2,900 @ ATL

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