DFS NASCAR DraftKings Lineup Advice: Homestead Picks 11/19/2017

NASCAR’s Monster Energy Series Cup champion will be crowned this Sunday in Miami for the final race of the season at Homestead Speedway.    Homestead Speedway is a 1.5 mile oval, intermediate track.  There will be a brand new champion, as last year’s reigning champion Jimmie Johnson failed to qualify for the final race.  Martin Truex Jr. will have the edge going into the race with his accumulation of points during his dominant season.   However, his competitors and three former champions – Brad Keselowski(2012), Kevin Harvick(2014), and Kyle Busch(2015) – will look to be the only other driver not named Jimmie Johnson to win multiple titles.  I will review the Final Four as well as some other notable drivers in the last NASCAR race of 2017.

The Final Four

Martin Truex Jr.($11,100):  Martin Truex Jr. deserves to win the title after his dominant season with seven races wins over the course of the year.   He also leads in Stage wins with 19, where Kyle Busch is 2nd with 14.  Homestead is an intermediate track, where Truex Jr. excels.    Truex Jr. may not win the race, but he will most likely be crowned the 2017 Monster Energy Cup champion barring any disaster at the beginning of the race.

Here is a quick look at some Intermediate Track stats since 2015:

• Martin Truex Jr.:  9 Wins, Average Finish = 7.3
• Kevin Harvick: 3 Wins, Average Finish = 8.4
• Kyle Busch: 4 Wins, Average Finish = 9.5
• Brad Keselowski:  3 Wins, Average Finish = 10.6

**Stats from DriverAverages.com

Kevin Harvick($9,700):  Harvick likes to finish the season strong.  In his sixteen starts in sixteen years at Homestead, Harvick has finished in the Top 10 in fourteen of these starts.   In the last 3 years, he has finished in the Top 3, winning the 2014 race in his championship year.  Harvick has momentum coming into the race with strong finishes in his last three races with a 5th place, 1st place, and 5th place finish respectively.

Kyle Busch($10,500):   Kyle Busch won this race in 2015 to seal his championship season.  He has had a great season with five wins, second only to Martin Truex Jr.  He has four Top 10’s in the past five years at Homestead Speedway.  Joe Gibbs Racing has provided Kyle Busch with fast cars in the back half of this season.  If Truex Jr. runs into trouble in the race early, I predict that it will be Kyle Busch who wins it all.

Brad Keselowski($9,900):  Keselowski is lucky to be in the Final Four.    Chase Elliott needed a win to make it to the Final, and was leading with 10 laps to go.  At this point, Elliott would be in and Keselowski would be out.   However, veteran Matt Kenseth who had a strong and fast car all day at Phoenix, regained the lead from Elliott and held onto win in an emotional victory.   Keselowski accumulated more points over the season to edge Elliott for the final spot.    But, don’t count out the former champion for this race as he has three Top 10’s in the past four races.    Keselowski was in the Top 10 in last year’s race with 10 laps to go, but was involved in the dramatic Carl Edwards crash that propelled Jimmie Johnson to the front.

When constructing your lineups, it will be impossible to field all four of them.  You may be able to fit three of the playoff drivers, but will really take chances with the scrubs to fill the rest lineup.   My advice is the pick either Martin Truex Jr. or Kyle Busch, and pair him with either Kevin Harvick or Brad Keselowski to build your lineup around.   Or, go with Truex Jr. and Busch to stack the Toyota drivers together.

Other Notable Drivers

Dale Earnhardt Jr.($7,800):   This will be the legendary and most popular NASCAR driver of all time’s last race.  Dale Jr. will retire after this race.    As for DFS, he has been terrible all season with a 5th place finish as his best showing.   But, he is worth a GPP flyer in a multi-entry contest.

Chase Elliott($9,400):    Elliott was so close last week to qualifying for the final by leading the race with 10 laps to go, but Matt Kenseth flagged him down and never gave up the lead after that.  Elliott had the same situation a couple of weeks previous to this but was wrecked by Denny Hamlin while leading with under five laps to go.   He has seven 2nd place finishes, the most out of any active drivers without winning a race.  Look for him to continue to score a Top 5 in this race.  In terms of Fantasy Points per Dollar, he ranks fifth among all drivers.

A.J. Allmendinger($6,300):   Allmendinger is sixth in Fantasy Points per Dollar for the whole season and can provide some salary relief.  Last year, he finished an impressive 8th place while starting in the 12th position.

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