DFS NBA DraftKings Lineup Advice 01/29/21
Are you all ready to send your account balances to the moon?? Oh, sorry I have been reading way too much WallStreetbets lately. The same concept applies though, we’re just not crippling hedge funds in the process!!
The one good thing about Friday is we know it’s normally going to be a bigger slate and more to choose from. That is pending any crazy sightings of that thing we call Covid!! I will always make this based off the info I have at the time, so some things definitely may change. From the way things have been this season, I would expect changes for sure. Now, let’s get to the breakdown and see if we can’t send those accounts to the moon!!
Be sure to check out today’s NBA Spreadsheet with projections. You can find it here.
Embed from Getty ImagesGuards
Top Play | Trae Young ($9,100)- In his last six games, he has scored 50 fantasy points or more. In the last five, he has averaged 57 fantasy points per game. He has scored 26 or more real-life points in the last five of six, and the other he scored 20. When Trae has his shot falling, he can put points up in a hurry. The good thing about Trae is when his shot isn’t falling, he has the ability to get it done in other areas, especially with assists. He is in the top five of the league with 8.8 assists per game. The Wizards are in the bottom for defensive efficiency and the middle of the pack in the pace of play. When you add those in with the fact that Bradley Beal said, “we can’t guard a parked car” it makes me want to load up on Trae during this hot stretch.
Mid-tier | Jordan Clarkson ($6,400)- This will depend on the status of Donovan Mitchell. In the last game without Mitchell, he scored 31 real-life points and 44.8 fantasy points. I wouldn’t be against the play if Mitchell were to play either. The minutes are secure with or without Mitchell in the lineup and Clarkson has been one of the best bench players in the league this year. He is averaging almost 30 fantasy points per game and 18 real-life points per game. If Mitchell is out then Clarkson would be a safe bet for 30 minutes or more and would give him a solid floor in the spot.
Value |Darius Garland ($5,000)- Since coming back from injury he has played at least 20 minutes per game, and in the last two he played 31 and 26. As long as his minutes are there he should be able to provide solid value at this price. On the year he has averaged 28.1 fantasy points per game, that’s almost 6x value at this price. I will take that all day. The Knicks have been playing hard and they get after you on defense, but the Cavs need playmakers and Garland is one they rely on when healthy. The matchup isn’t great, but I’m betting on the talent and minutes to make him a solid value at this price tag.
Fade |De’Aaron Fox ($8,500)- I’m a big believer in the talent of Fox, but the price is too much for me right now. I know he is capable of big nights as we saw when he exploded for 77 fantasy points. The problem is other than that game his highest is 49 fantasy points. I don’t doubt that he can get to 40-42 most nights, but 6x at this price is 51 fantasy points and he’s done that only once this year. I’m willing to take my chances on him not having a ceiling game in this spot and that’s what you likely need for him to help send you to the moon!!
Others I Like: Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, Lamelo Ball
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Top Play | Domantas Sabonis ($9,200)- In the last matchup with Charlotte, he went for 55.8 fantasy points. I have always attacked them with the big guys, and I plan on sticking to that trend. On the year he is averaging a double-double and 47.6 fantasy points per game. He is getting it done and is a safe bet to play at least 35 minutes per game. With a usage rate of 23.6 and playing heavy minutes, I will load up on Sabonis. I think his floor is safe and he has the chance to flash his ceiling in this matchup.
Mid-tier | Gordon Hayward ($7,000)- The price on Hayward is too good to pass up. In the last matchup he underperformed, but I think that was an outlier. He is going to play heavy minutes every game that he is healthy in, and he’s the best player on the team. In four of the last five games, he has scored 37 to 57 fantasy points per game. This season he is sporting a 25.5 usage percentage and averaging over 1 fantasy point per minute. For the game to be close it will take a big effort from Hayward, and I expect him to play around 37 minutes. That would give him a projection close to 40 fantasy points. With the price tag of $7,000, I will safely fire Hayward up in GPP and cash.
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Value |Joe Ingles ($4,700)- The same for Jingles as it is for Clarkson. If Donovan Mitchell is out and Jingles gets the start, he becomes the best value on the slate in my opinion. In the last game he started without Mitchell, he played 30 minutes and scored 41 fantasy points. While he may not go for 40 or more again, I do think somewhere in the low to mid 30’s is a reasonable outcome. The news for Mitchell is one to monitor for sure and nothing against Mitchell, but I hope he doesn’t play. That is for my own selfish reasons though. I like having good value identified early in the day on a bigger slate.
Fade |Kristaps Porzingis ($7,900)- The last two games the Unicorn hasn’t topped 29 fantasy points. His minutes have been there, but the production has been hit or miss. The matchup isn’t one I would expect him to break out in either, and this mid-range area is full of guys I like more than the Unicorn. For those reasons, I don’t think I have any exposure to KP.
Others I Like: Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, Demar Derozan
Centers
Top Play | Nikola Jokic ($10,100)– There really isn’t much that I need to say about Jokic. He has cooled off some in his last two games, but his cooling off is 43 fantasy points. The usage rate is up and they’re running the offense thru him. On the year he hasn’t been below 42 fantasy points, and he’s only been in the ’40s in five games this year. He is more likely to score 50-60 fantasy points in most games, and I think one of those 60 burgers is on the menu for this one. When you look at the Spurs team, they have nobody that can stop Jokic. The only hope they have is for him to get in foul trouble. I think Jokic finishes as the highest scorer on the slate, and at a bare minimum in the top three.
Mid-tier | Rudy Gobert ($7,500)– I normally don’t like playing Gobert. He is always one of those guys that are quietly going to get 35-40 fantasy points each night. The problem I have with playing him is he usually doesn’t flash his ceiling, but his last two games have changed that outlook for me. If Donovan Mitchell doesn’t play and Gobert gets a usage bump, he could easily go for 50 plus again. The Mavericks don’t really have anyone that can keep him off the boards, especially on the offensive end for the easy put backs. It will be interesting for me to see how lineup construction looks once we have more news. I’m going to be stuck deciding between Jokic or Gobert from my early look at it.
Value |Bobby Portis ($4,200)– I will say this is a GPP flier. The minutes for Portis can be up and down, but in blowouts, he usually gets minutes in the mid-twenties. If you think this game can blowout, then there is potential that Portis could provide solid value. Now, I don’t like predicting blowouts but I do think it’s possible here. This could prove to be a sneaky value play with some upside if that were to happen. I honestly will consider it, but I’m likely going to be going Jokic or Gobert in most of my lineups.
Fade |Andre Drummond ($8,600)- On the year Drummond has had big games against the Knicks, but in those games, he played 33 minutes or more. In the last five games, he hasn’t played more than 28 minutes. Now, I won’t say he can’t smash in fewer minutes because he has already shown in the last game that he can. For me, it’s hard to pay the price tag for what is likely less than 30 minutes. I don’t think it’s worth chancing when I can save $1,100 and go to Gobert, who I know will get his minutes and provide a solid floor. So, this isn’t me saying that Drummond has a bad game. It’s me saying I don’t think the risk is worth the reward at the price tag with too many unknowns when there are cheaper guys in better spots.
Others I Like: Joel Embiid, Nikola Vucevic
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