DFS NBA DraftKings Lineup Advice 02/06/21
Breaking News: The writer bnett2210 will write on the second half of the back to back. There were rumors floating around about wrist cramps, or it may have been the head injury he suffered when he saw that Malcolm Brogdon or Domantas Sabonis had combined for ZERO minutes in the fourth quarter, in a close game!!! You have to love NBA DFS though huh??
We do get a good nine-game slate for Saturday night. There has been some early injury news, but the biggest of that news is the Nets ruling Kevin Durant out already. We were reminded again today of how quick value can open up on a slate. It’s been a common theme this year with teams having the minimum eight guys available, and opening up a ton of value, so this year more than most, we have to be prepared for it to happen at any time.
Anyways, enough rambling, let’s see if we can continue to add more money for those Valentines Day plans!!
Be sure to check out today’s NBA Spreadsheet with projections. You can find it here.
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Guards
Top Play | James Harden ($10,700)- We already know Kevin Durant is out, and that makes Harden a smash play. The Nets can’t stop anyone and it’s causing all of their games to be higher-scoring. The only chance they have of winning is to have big nights from Harden and Kyrie Irving. It shouldn’t be a problem for Harden to put up big numbers in a good matchup and one that should be high-scoring. I really want Joel Embiid to play as well. With Embiid active, it would help create the higher-scoring game and push Harden to play big minutes again. The 76ers are one of the top teams in the East, and it would be the perfect game for the Nets to send a message to all of the doubters. I think the combo of all of that will push Harden to have one of those 60 plus fantasy point games.
Mid-tier | Eric Gordon ($5,800)- There is a good possibility that John Wall sits in this one. That would put the Rockets without two high-usage guys in Wall and Christian Wood. It would likely push Gordon to a 30 minute floor. In the last 8 out of 10 games, he has scored 20 or more real-life points, and the Rockets will need his scoring to stay competitive in this one. The last three games, he has been at 30 fantasy points or more and I think he gets there again. At his price I think his floor is safe and if his shot is falling we could see 40 easily.
Value |Shake Milton/Furkan Korkmaz/Tyrese Maxey- There is a chance that Seth Curry is out, and that would give the start to one of these three guys. If the 76ers are short-handed again then all three could be good value, but whoever is a starter would be the one you would want. I have already touched on how bad the Nets defense has been, so there is plenty of upside potential here.
Fade |Stephen Curry ($9,700)- We all know how quick Steph can get hot and put up points in a hurry. The points are nice obviously, but the problem for me is at this price, Steph has hit value 40 percent of the time. He has went for more than 48 fantasy points in 6 of his last 15 games. In three of those he had 11 rebounds. That is not consistent enough for me to feel comfortable about paying this price. I think there are cheaper guys that will score close to Steph, if not more and I would rather go that route. With that being said, Steph has been killing me this year. When I play him, he has a floor game, and when I don’t play him, he breaks the slate. So, you do what you want with Steph.
Others I Like: Kyrie Irving, Damion Lee
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Top Play | Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000)- If the Cavaliers can keep the game competitive enough again to where Giannis has to play at least 30 minutes, then another 60 burger is likely to happen. I think the Cavs can keep it close enough to where Giannis gets the minutes. In that case, it makes it likely that he is one of the highest scorers on the slate. If the value opens up enough to do so, I will try and get Giannis and Harden together in most lineups. I believe they end up as the highest scorers on the slate.
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Mid-tier | Kristaps Porzingis ($8,200)- The Unicorn has scored 40 or more fantasy points in his last three games. In the last matchup with the Warriors, he only played 25 minutes and scored 41.8 fantasy points. He would have played over 30 if the game was close. The Warriors were hot from the beginning and never let up. While it could happen again, I think the Mavs come to play this time. That should put him playing at least 30 minutes. If he plays 30 or more against a Warriors team that is short on big men, he should hit over 40 again. It’s been a little bit since he has broke the 50 fantasy point mark, but I have this feeling he does it in this matchup.
Value |Juan Toscano-Anderson ($4,200)- We have injury news that could change this. If the Warriors are still missing a few guys then I like the value he provides. He played more minutes than anybody last game, and if the game gets out of hand it will help his value even more. The main news to monitor is about Eric Paschall. If Paschall is out, then fire up Juan.
Fade |Khris Middleton ($7,600)- In the last 3 out of 4 games, he hasn’t been above 30 fantasy points. He has been under 20 real-life points in five straight games. Those stats alone put Middleton on my fade list. There are better plays in the same price range and cheaper.
Others I Like: Ben Simmons, Zion Williamson, Jae’Sean Tate
Centers
Top Play | Joel Embiid ($10,500)- I’m basing this off the assumption that Embiid plays. He’s been on the injury report a few times this year and has played multiple times. There isn’t much to say about why to play Embiid, it should be obvious. The Nets defense is an obvious reason too. With the way Embiid has been playing and how bad the Nets defense is right now, this is a dream matchup. We just saw Pascal Siakam score 65 fantasy points on this Nets team. If they can’t stop Siakam then they will have even bigger problems with Embiid. If there is anyone that I think can outscore Giannis or Harden on this slate, I think it’s Embiid, as long as he is good to go.
Mid-tier | Nikola Vucevic ($8,900)-The always play big guys against Chicago strategy was effective, to say the least. It is a back to back, but I have no concerns over him being available. I don’t see the Bulls finding a way to stopping him overnight, so I will go right back to the big man. I love the spots for both Vucevic and Embiid, and depending on lineup construction, if you need the savings then go Vucevic.
Value | Demarcus Cousins ($6,300)- We know Christian Wood is going to be out for some time, and John Wall could miss this game too. That would give a usage bump to Boogie, and a minutes bump. In the three games that he has played at least 30 minutes, he is averaging 48 fantasy points. We all know minutes equal production normally and that is definitely the case for Boogie. If he gets extended minutes for an extended time then his price is likely to increase quickly. If you’re paying up at other spots and can’t get to the guys mentioned above then I think Boogie is your guy. He is capable of breaking the slate with a full workload and good savings compared to the others.
Fade |Jonas Valanciunas ($7,100)- This is an easy fade for me. He hasn’t played in three weeks and is likely to be limited. The risk is not worth the reward in a situation that he likely doesn’t see more than 20 minutes.
Others I Like: Clint Capela, Bobby Portis
May variance be on your side and the DFS gods with you!!
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