DFS NBA DraftKings Lineup Advice 03/26/21
As we all know that NBA trade deadline was today, and there was some pretty big moves. With that being said it makes it hard to write the night before because there are too many unknowns right now. I do imagine there will be a lot more value open up tomorrow once we know who is eligible to play for their new teams and who is not.
The trade of Nikola Vucevic to the Bulls completely changes one of my oldest DFS strategies. I don’t think you will be able to attack Chicago with the big guys with as much success now. Anyways, it’s Friday and its another big slate, so I will use what information I have at hand right now and I fully expect a lot of this to change come tomorrow.
Be sure to check out today’s NBA Spreadsheet with projections. You can find it here.
Embed from Getty ImagesGuards
Top Play | Trae Young ( $9,100)– The obvious pick here is James Harden if he plays. We don’t know that he will, so I will go with the one I fully expect to play. If you look at the game logs over the last seven games, you will notice Trae hasn’t broke 50 fantasy points in any of them. There is something telling me that he gets 50 or more in this one. At this price he averages 5x value, and has what I believe to be a safe floor in this matchup. I will look to put Ice-Trae in my lineups early on unless there is news that changes my construction.
Mid-tier | Kevin Porter Jr. ($6,200)- He has been out the last two games and is questionable for this one. There is a good chance he plays. With Victor Oladipo being traded to the Heat that leaves more usage and creates a bigger role for Porter Jr. In 4 out of the 5 games the he played 29 minutes or more, he scored 40 or more fantasy points. At this price tag if he is active I think he becomes on of the best value plays on the slate.
Value | Tyler Herro ($5,600)/ Kendrick Nunn ($4,900)- We know that Goran Dragic is out and they do not expect Victor Oladipo to play in this one. The absence of Dragic will create value for one of these guys at least, and if Jimmy Butler were to miss again it would make them both great value plays again. The news will be important here because if Butler is out it would make both guys hard to pass up in a good matchup with a ton of usage to make up for.
Fade | Jamal Murray ($8,200)- This might not be as bad if Aaron Gordon doesn’t play, but either way I don’t like playing Murray personally. In the last 10 out of 12 games he would have failed to hit 5x value at this price tag. He is too up and down for me and he doesn’t do enough outside of scoring to make me like the play on a big slate. If Aaron Gordon does play then I really don’t like this price because we’re not sure of the usage Gordon will take away from everyone not named Nikola Jokic.
Others I Like: Damian Lillard, Jordan Poole, Devin Booker, Caris Levert
Embed from Getty ImagesForwards
Top Play | Jaylen Brown ($8,400)- I’m not one that likes to play Celtics players a whole lot, but I do like what Jaylen Brown has been doing and I think he continues playing well. In his last six games he has been over 42 fantasy points in all of them. That is over 5x value at this price and I think he makes it a seventh game straight. In order for the Celtics to beat the Bucks, they will need Brown at his best. I look for it to be another close and competitive game and one that Brown should play at least 34 minutes in.
Mid-tier | Anthony Edwards ($7,900)- The rookie has looked like a completely different player since the return from the All-Star break. He has scored over 32 fantasy points in 11 of the last 12 games. The Rockets just got rid of their best perimeter defender and that makes it an even better matchup for Edwards. I think we see another 40 fantasy point game from him in this one. As of right now he is one of my favorite plays.
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Value |Bogdan Bogdanovic ($4,600)- I like the price and the matchup for Bogdan. He has played at least 29 or more minutes in 3 of the last 4 games and he should continue playing good minutes. When he gets the minutes he can fill the stat sheet and I think he could go for 30 or more fantasy points in this one.
Fade |Michael Porter Jr ($7,300)- I could be wrong but I think MPJ will be impacted the most by Aaron Gordon joining the Nuggets. Until we know what it looks like with Gordon on the floor it’s hard to pay over 7k for MPJ on a big slate like this. I think there are cheaper and safer options to look at.
Others I Like: Trevor Ariza, John Collins, Andrew Wiggins
Centers
Top Play | Karl- Anthony Towns ($9,900)- The obvious choice that most people would put here is Nikola Jokic and for good reason. I do believe Jokic likely finishes with the most fantasy points out of all the Centers and possibly the highest scorer on the slate. So, while I like Jokic and so will everyone else, I decided to go down to my next favorite in KAT. I look for KAT and Christian Wood to both put up big numbers in this matchup. He has been shooting decent from deep as of late too and if his shots are falling it could easily be a 60 fantasy point night for him. The Wolves will run their offense thru him and give him multiple ways to have a big night. He might not score as high as Jokic, but he should definitely be up there at the end.
Mid-tier | Clint Capela ($7,800)- This is one of my favorite plays of the slate. There is nobody on the Warriors that will keep Capela off the boards and doing whatever he wants to inside. The rookie, James Wiseman will be no match for Capela down low. The big man averages 14 rebounds a game and this is one that he could push close to 20 rebounds again. We will monitor all the news, but for now Capela may be my favorite play on the whole slate.
Value |Aron Baynes ($3,400)- I know when you see this it looks ugly and I felt the same way. However, I do believe because of the size of Deandre Ayton it will force Baynes into some more minutes. When the Raptors are playing against a big traditional type of center they use Baynes more and I think they will have to in this one. If that is the case and he has to play minutes in the mid-twenties then he should be able to hit value. Now with Baynes what he should do and what he actually does is completely different. I think he can provide good value on a big slate, but I’m sure once more news comes out there will likely be better value at the Center position.
Fade | Jonas Valanciunas ($7,600)- There are a few things I don’t like about this play. The main ones are the price and the matchup. There are better plays in the same area and cheaper. The other is the matchup with the Jazz and the defensive presence of Rudy Gobert. I know JVal has been solid value most games this year, but I think this is one where he is an easy fade for me
Others I Like: Zion Williamson, Robert Williams, Deandre Ayton
May variance be on your side and the DFS gods with you!!!
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