Week 14 is a great time to get into Yahoo’s DFS format. For those who have been reading my previous articles, you’ll know that I attempt to point out the best player price value on Yahoo’s Sunday slate.
For roster and scoring settings, check out my Week 1 article.
Home and Dome
There are a few elements that I look at in order to find the most desired matchups. There is what I call Home and Dome, teams that are playing at home with an indoor stadium. Wind can be a factor that can negatively impact passing offenses and being indoors takes that element away. There are three teams that play Home and Dome in the Week 14 Sunday Slate:
Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers
Las Vegas Raiders vs Indianapolis Colts
Los Angeles Chargers vs Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins (MIN) $28 @ TB
The problem with Kirk Cousins is always volume. He has constantly been an efficient quarterback, especially with the Vikings. There was a game this year where Cousins only threw 14 pass attempts. With that risk, it can be difficult to trust Cousins. However, if there was ever a week for Minnesota to shift to a pass-happy approach, this is the time. The Buccaneers have allowed the 3rd fewest fantasy points to running backs. Against the pass-funnel defense, and with a pair of elite-level receivers to stack with, Cousins is arguably a great value below the $30 mark.
Sam Darnold (NYJ) $23 @ SEA
And below that $30 is where I want to remain at this position. I’m willing to go all the way down close to the minimum price. Sam Darnold presents a great opportunity at a cheap cost. While the Seahawks defense has improved, they may be without Carlos Dunlap. His recent acquisition by Seattle is one of the primary reasons why they have gotten better. Without him, they may return to the unit that has surrendered the 2nd most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
More Value: Mitchell Trubisky (CHI) $22
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Running Back
Derrick Henry (TEN) $37 @ JAX
Last week, Derrick Henry was one of my biggest plays, and he failed to pay off. The game script worked against him, and he also lost a fumble for the first time this season. This week, I’m going right back to Henry, even with the $3 increase in price. It’s all about the matchup. Some of Henry’s best career games have come against the Jaguars, and this is far from the best defensive unit they have had in that time. While Henry is not the cash-game lock that this next player is, he may be a valuable tournament play if people are turned off by last week’s performance.
Aaron Jones (GB) $32 @ DET
Throughout this article, I will constantly preach value. That is so that you can afford an elite option at a position. This week, the player that I have ranked as the top running back is Aaron Jones. Last time he played the Lions, Jones produced 43.6 fantasy points. In twelve weeks, I do not believe much as changed for the Detroit defense. Therefore, look for Jones to dominate once again. The game script says it all. The Packers are heavy road favorites (-9) in the highest combined over/under (53 points) of the week.
More Value: Jonathan Taylor (IND) $24
Wide Receiver
Justin Jefferson (MIN) $27 @ TB
As mentioned earlier, I expect the Vikings to employ a more pass-friendly approach. Either of Minnesota’s top receivers are viable. Between the two, I prefer Justin Jefferson to Adam Thielen, simply because of the price. Also, with Kirk Cousins being somewhat of a bargain I want to take advantage of that. I feel like you lose a bit of that advantage by playing a stack option that is more expensive than the quarterback.
Cole Beasley (BUF) $16 vs PIT
Yes, it is a difficult matchup against the Steelers defense. But I do not view them as an avoid with regards to Bills players. For instance, last week, Cole Beasley produced 23.5 fantasy points on 11 targets against the 49ers defense. The Steelers are arguably better, but Beasley has still received double-digit targets in three close games without John Brown. As one of the top two targets on a high-powered Buffalo offense, Beasley should be in line to produce well above his price range again.
Brandon Aiyuk (SF) $14 vs WAS
Not only is Brandon Aiyuk leading the 49ers in Red Zone targets (12), but he has double what any of his teammates have. And perhaps contrary to expectations, San Francisco has a balanced Red Zone approach, with 56 pass attempts as compared to 54 Red rushes. I was certainly expecting them to be more run0heavy close to the goal-line. Aiyuk is probably the biggest beneficiary of this tactic. Take advantage of what I see as the biggest bargain on the slate.
More Value: Darnell Mooney $13 / Anthony Miller $12 (CHI)
Tight End
Rob Gronkowski (TB) $17 vs MIN
With the news that Eric Kendricks will be out for Week 14, it makes the Vikings defense much more vulnerable. One of the areas that Kendricks was responsible for covering (and which is was doing a fantastic job) was tight ends. With the 2nd highest over/under of the week (at 53 points), this is definitely a game I want to attack. Rob Gronkowski makes the perfect play in that regard. With the absence of Kendricks, this is a great matchup. And Gronkowski is a great stack option either with his own quarterback, or (my favorite of the week) as a run-it-back option with his opponents (Cousins/Jefferson).
Mike Gesicki (MIA) $ 16 vs KC
Last week, Mike Gesicki saw 11 targets, leading all Dolphins pass-catchers. Has the transition to Gisicki as the team’s top target been completed? Yahoo does not reflect that in their prices. Therefore, if you believe that Gesicki is the new alpha on the team, take advantage before his price rises.
More Value: Logan Thomas (WAS) $12
Deep Dive
RB – Mike Davis (CAR) $18 vs DEN
Ok, $18 is probably too expensive for a Deep Dive, but Mike Davis is a value relative to the pricier options I have recommended at running back. Yet another week, where Christian McCaffrey is likely out, means another week for Davis as a workhorse. And with no price adjustment, this is a play to continue to take advantage of.
WR – Quintez Cephus (DET) $11 vs GB
Sometimes you just have to take a stand. Without Kenny Golladay, and with T.J. Hockenson likely to be covered by linebackers, that leaves Marvin Jones as a clear target for the secondary. I expect Jaire Alexander to shadow Jones, which potentially leaves Quintez Cephus 1-on-1 vs Kevin King. Coming off of a touchdown game, the rookie receiver may be building report and momentum with his quarterback. Last season, King in coverage was the matchup that Detroit exploited. My call this week is to play Cephus at a near-minimum price.
Defense
Green Bay Packers $13 @ DET
Yes, on the surface this is not the greatest defensive situation. Road and Dome team, facing a clutch quarterback and a running back that has historically torn this unit apart. However, without their top wide receiver, Jaire Alexander can focus his attention on the high performing Marvin Jones, the Lions may be forced to rely on other option. One aspect the Packers have improved upon this season is covering tight ends. With the coverage matchups being less than stellar, Detriot may struggle to move the ball.
Los Angeles Chargers $12 vs ATL
Another Dome defense. Only this team is at home and they will be facing a Falcons team without Julio Jones. This pick is mostly bargain hunting for a situation just like this. In certain games without Jones this season, the Falcons have struggled to operate on offense.
Thank you for reading DFS NFL Yahoo Week 14. Be sure to check out all of the great DFS content available on Going for 2.
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