DFS Week 13 Stacks Report – 12/3/2017 (Draftkings & Fanduel)

Melvin Gordon ($7,400) and Chargers Defense ($4,000)

This one’s pretty simple: the Chargers are 14-point home favorites against the Cleveland Browns.  Although the production hasn’t been there, Melvin Gordon is still seeing the workload, with 20+ touches each of the past 3 games while only scoring 1 touchdown on 12 red zone touches.  The touchdown regression is coming.  The Browns run defense has not been as stout as earlier in the season, allowing 28+ fantasy points to the Bengals, Lions, and Vikings over the past month.  The Chargers defense is elite at this point.  They have the #7 adjusted sack rate by Football Outsiders, and have had multiple interceptions each of their last 3 games.  This is a cash viable stack.

Case Keenum ($6,000), Stefon Diggs ($6,200), and Mohamed Sanu ($5,600)

Case Keenum has exceeded his value on Draftkings in each of his past 4 games.  The Falcons’ defense ranks 26th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA and has allowed 20+ points in 9 of their last 10 games.  With a 2.5-point spread and the 3rd highest total on the slate, look for this game to be a sneaky shootout.  All the attention has been on Adam Thielen (very much deserved), but this matchup lines up well for forgotten man Stefon Diggs.  Thielen will see mostly Brian Poole coverage out of the slot, who’s played well this year (77.6 grade on Pro Football Focus).  Diggs gets the best matchup, as Desmond Trufant is out for the Falcons and they’ve ranked 28th in DVOA covering the WR #2 (opposite Trufant) this season; this could be the Stefon Diggs big game I’ve been chasing for months.  On the Falcons’ side, Julio Jones will be shadowed by Xavier Rhodes who had a nightmare Thanksgiving allowing 2 touchdowns to Marvin Jones.  I believe in future coach of the year Mike Zimmer and his ability to learn and adapt from mistakes made.  After the Marvin Jones game and what Julio Jones did last week to the Buccaneers, the Vikings should do everything they can to not let Julio beat them.  This should open up the passing game for Mohamed Sanu.  Sanu has been a model of consistency, scoring double digit fantasy points in 8 of 10 games played this season.  This is a tournament only stack.

Geno Smith ($4,500), Sterling Shepard ($7,000), and Jared Cook ($5,400)

I’m excited to watch what the best quarterback on the Giants’ roster can do.  Yes, you read that right, I truly believe Geno Smith is an upgrade to Eli Manning in 2017.  According to Player Profiler, Geno has a 95th percentile height-adjusted speed score and an 87th percentile burst score.  When you have no run game or an offensive line, you need a mobile quarterback (see Russell Wilson).  It’s a gross play and there’s a possibility he gets benched, but there’s tournament merit to the play if he can throw for 2 and run for 1.  Sterling Shepard is expected back, and I’ve lost so much money playing Evan Engram in his absence, so Shepard owes me.  It’s tough to know if Geno has any chemistry with the backups he might have practiced with a lot (Roger Lewis, Travis Rudolph, and Tavarres King), but I’ll stick to the best receiver on the field.  The Raiders are also the worst pass defense in the league, ranked 32nd in pass defense DVOA.  On the other side of the field, Michael Crabtree is suspended and Amari Cooper is out with an injury.  The targets have to go somewhere, right?  Jared Cook is going to be popular, but he’s to easiest player to predict targets for, as he’s been consistently seeing 5+ targets a week.  The Giants have also given up the most fantasy points to the tight end position.  This is a large field tournament only stack.

Jared Goff ($6,700), Todd Gurley ($8,200), Cooper Kupp ($6,400), and Larry Fitzgerald ($6,000)

The Rams are 7-point road favorites against the 4th ranked run defense DVOA in the Cardinals.  Jared Goff had 19 fantasy points in a 33-0 blowout of the Cardinals earlier this season, where he threw for 1 touchdown and 1 interception.  Goff continues to improve every week, throwing for 9 touchdowns and 1 interception in the 4 games since.  Now that Goff is priced up, I will continue to play him at minimal ownership when he has tournament winning upside every week.  The Cardinals have a good run defense, but Todd Gurley was able to run 22 times for 106 yards and a touchdown while also catching 4 of 8 targets for 48 yards.  Like I wrote last week, pairing Goff with Gurley is something that the general public thinks is negatively correlated, but it’s far from it.  Robert Woods is still out and Sammy Watkins should get shadowed by Patrick Peterson, leaving Cooper Kupp as the last man standing.  Watkins and Kupp combined for 45% and 55% of the team’s targets and air yards, respectively (per AirYards.com).  Kupp had a $1,400 price jump, but he’s still underpriced for the matchup and situation.  Since Blaine Gabbert took over 2 weeks ago, Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown have combined for 43% of the team’s targets.  John Brown will not be active this week, leaving Fitz with a heavier workload.  Gabbert has proven to be adequate, so I’m comfortable with Fitz this week.  This is a tournament only stack.

Josh McCown ($5,500), Robby Anderson ($6,300), and Travis Kelce ($7,000)

STACK OF THE WEEK

I never thought I’d be able to write a Jets stack as the stack of the week, but here we are.  According to Fantasy Labs, Josh McCown has exceeded his Draftkings’ salary based expectation in 8 of 11 games this season.  He is still priced way down at $5,500, only $1,000 above the minimum which is just disrespectful to the 38 year old journeyman.  The Chiefs’ 24th ranked defense by DVOA has been beatable over this stretch losing 5 of 6 games.  According to Sharp Football Stats’ average explosive pass rate metric, the Chiefs rate 23rd against the big pass play.  Robby Anderson has been one of the league’s best receivers of late, scoring a touchdown in 5 straight games.  Anderson should be able to take the top of the Chiefs defense as he has in most matchups this season, and I’ll keep betting on the 50 yard touchdowns while he’s still not outrageously priced.  On the Chiefs side, I will always put my money on Travis Kelce.  The Jets and Jamaal Adams have been good against tight ends, 4th in DVOA, but that didn’t stop Rob Gronkowski from a 6-83-2 line.  Kelce saw 4 targets last week, his fewest since Week 3.  Look for the Chiefs to get their best player going in this matchup.  This is a cash viable stack.

Disclaimer: the Top Stacks Report will be a weekly article highlighting my favorite correlated stacks of the week on both Draftkings and Fanduel.  I will be using Draftkings pricing in the headers.  Unless one site is specified, I like the stack for both.

Good luck this week, and feel free to reach out with questions/feedback on twitter @EvanRosenberg0.  I would love to hear your thoughts and discuss further. 

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