DFS Week 14 Stacks Report – 12/10/2017 (Draftkings & Fanduel)
Giovani Bernard ($3,100) and Bengals Defense ($3,300)
Joe Mixon got a concussion on Monday night and the pricing for Week 14 was already released. Assuming Mixon doesn’t clear concussion protocol, Giovani Bernard is a must play across dfs at near minimum price. After Mixon left the game, the only running backs left on the roster were Gio and Brian Hill, who did not see the field for an offensive snap. We can expect Gio to see nearly all of the backfield work as a 6.5-point home favorite against the Bears. The Bears have a decent run defense, ranking 12th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA, but that doesn’t matter when Bernard could see 20+ touches at $3,100 and $5,100 on Draftkings and Fanduel, respectively. The Bengals defense is middle of the road, but get to face Mitch Trubisky and a Bears offense that exclusively wants to run the ball to hide their rookie quarterback. The Bears attempt a league low 30 passes per game (while Trubisky’s season high is 35). Being a road underdog should force the Bears into negative game script, giving us more Trubisky passes to result in turnovers.
Disclaimer: the Top Stacks Report will be a weekly article highlighting my favorite correlated stacks of the week on both Draftkings and Fanduel. I will be using Draftkings pricing in the headers. Unless one site is specified, I like the stack for both.
Alex Smith ($6,500), Travis Kelce ($7,400), and Michael Crabtree ($6,700)
The Chiefs have now lost to both the Giants and Jets; they’re a bad football team. You know who else isn’t good? The Raiders. Based on DVOA, this matchup features the #28 and #32 ranked defenses. That’s why this game has the highest total on the main slate at 48.5 points. Last week against the Jets, Alex Smith proved that replacing him with Patrick Mahomes isn’t going to solve all the team’s problems. On a slate without Drew Brees (Thursday) and Tom Brady (Monday), Alex Smith could be the top overall projected quarterback. 4 of the last 7 QBs to face the Raiders have scored 27+ Draftkings points, with the exceptions being Geno Smith, Paxton Lynch, and Tyrod Taylor (who only threw 27 passes in a blowout). The Raiders rank 27th in DVOA covering the tight end and have given up the 7th most fantasy points to the position. Travis Kelce has scored 20+ Draftkings points in 5 of his last 6. I don’t mind also using Tyreek Hill as the Raiders corners can’t keep up with speed receivers, but I just prefer Kelce if only using one. On the Raiders side, Amari Cooper is dealing with multiple injuries and is expected to miss this game. We can look at the best receiver on the team, Michael Crabtree, to come back from his suspension ready to go against a Marcus Peters-less Chiefs secondary. This defense just gave up 17 catches on 22 targets for 264 yards to Robby Anderson and Jermaine Kearse last week. There’s really nothing else to say.
LeSean McCoy ($7,200) and Bills Defense ($3,100)
LeSean McCoy is having a rough stretch, scoring over 13 fantasy points just once in his last 5 games. With Tyrod Taylor likely out and Nathan Peterson expected to start, the Bills will run Shady into the ground if they have to. Vegas currently has no line on this game as we await Tyrod news, but the Bills opened as 13.5-point home favorites against the Colts (with Tyrod expected). Even if that moves a full touchdown, the Bills would still be pretty heavy 6.5-point favorites. The Colts defense is a complete train wreck, with more players headed to the IR every week (not that it was any good to begin with). The Colts are giving up the 7th most fantasy points to opposing running backs, and Shady should see 20+ touches. Hopefully, he goes overlooked with his recent box scores being unproductive by his standards. Jacoby Brissett has taken 32 sacks the past 6 weeks….that’s insane. I’m not sure how much of that is on him holding the ball too long verse the brutal offensive line, but either way I want in on the fantasy points. The Bills defense is decent (17th in DVOA) and will potentially be missing star rookie corner Tre’Davious White after Rob Gronkowski tried to murder him. While this isn’t good for covering T.Y. Hilton, I am interested in the Bills for the sacks and potential for Brissett turnovers.
Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,500), Trent Taylor ($3,300), DeAndre Hopkins ($8,500), and Stephen Anderson ($3,200)
The Niners-Texans game has sneaky shootout potential. The total has moved up 1.5 points from 42.5 to 44, and this game features the #3 and #7 teams by Football Outsiders’ situation neutral pace metric. If you’ve been reading my articles weekly, you know I’m a sucker for high paced matchups between football teams with bad defenses. Jimmy Garoppolo is going to be (or already is) a stud franchise quarterback for Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco. Last week against the Bears, Garoppolo threw for 293 yards but no touchdowns and 1 interception in a game the Niners kicked 5 field goals. Every week, I think we’ll see the playbook open a little more for Jimmy G as he continues to learn Shanahan’s complex system. Trent Taylor caught all 6 of his targets for 92 yards in his first game with the new QB. At only $3,300 on Draftkings and the minimum priced $4,500 on Fanduel, Taylor doesn’t need much to hit value. Marquise Goodwin is also in play, but I prefer him on Fanduel’s 0.5 PPR scoring system where he’s priced as the WR41 compared to the WR26 on Draftkings. On the Texans side, DeAndre Hopkins is the top overall wide receiver play of the week going up against the #30 pass defense by DVOA. DeAndre Hopkins should run the majority of his routes against Dontae Johnson, Pro Football Focus’ #104 grade cornerback out of 115. One of my favorite overall plays of the week is Texans tight end Stephen Anderson. C.J. Fiedorowicz and Bruce Ellington were both placed on the IR this week and Braxton Miller is banged up. Anderson stepped up last week running 37 routes and seeing 12 targets (4 in the red zone) and a receiving line of 5-79-1. He is considered a tweener, like Jordan Reed and Evan Engram who are essentially just large slot receivers that don’t block well and are called tight ends. Expect to see a lot of Anderson once again as he’s the only tight end left standing and, if Miller is out, he might be the only slot option standing in general.
DeShone Kizer ($4,900), Josh Gordon ($5,500), Corey Coleman ($4,100), and Jordy Nelson ($4,500)
STACK OF THE WEEK
I’m not sure which hype train has been bigger over the past two weeks: Bitcoin or Josh Gordon. The all-world receiver made his long awaited return to football last week with 4 catches on 11 targets for 84 yards; this against the Chargers with perimeter corners Casey Hayward and Trevor Williams ranked #1 and #7, respectively, by Pro Football Focus’ cornerback grades. According to Josh Hermsmeyer’s AirYards.com, Gordon was the 4th overall player in air yards in Week 13 with 210. DeShone Kizer‘s inaccuracy held back Gordon’s production more than the Chargers’ elite defensive backs. He’s going to be one of the most popular plays of the week, but Gordon is still underpriced even with the $1,400 price increase on Draftkings. He also has one of the best matchups possible against a Packers defense giving up the 4th most fantasy points to wide receivers, including a 10-168-2 receiving line to Antonio Brown 2 weeks ago. People are going to just play Gordon and ignore the rest of the offense, but at $4,100 Corey Coleman is a great tournament play either with or instead of Gordon to differentiate your lineup. Coleman was held catch-less against the Chargers on 4 targets, but should bounce back in a big way against the Packers. With the Packers having a good run defense (9th in run defense DVOA), spending $9,600 in salary on Gordon and Coleman together could hit combined value. If I think both receivers will hit tournament winning value, by default Kizer would have to perform well. Davante Adams has been the only Packers receiver most (including myself) have rostered since Hundley took over. Last week, Jordy Nelson saw 90 air yards on 8 targets compared to Adams’ 47 air yards on 6 targets. Going up against the Browns this week, expect Jason McCourty to shadow Adams, opening up an opportunity for Jordy Nelson at just $4,500 on Draftkings.
Disclaimer: the Top Stacks Report will be a weekly article highlighting my favorite correlated stacks of the week on both Draftkings and Fanduel. I will be using Draftkings pricing in the headers. Unless one site is specified, I like the stack for both.
Good luck this week, and feel free to reach out with questions/feedback on twitter @EvanRosenberg0. I would love to hear your thoughts and discuss further.
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