DFS Week 15 Stacks Report – 12/17/2017 (Draftkings & Fanduel)

Alex Collins ($5,000) and Ravens Defense ($3,800)

The Cleveland Browns have the #1 ranked run defense by Football Outsiders’ DVOA, but have also given up 28+ fantasy points to opposing backfields in 4 of their past 6 games.  Their run defense is actually very good when healthy, but trailing week after week causes game script to allow opponents to just continue to run and rack up the counting stats.  I expect more of the same this week for the Browns, as they are 7.5-point home underdogs to the Ravens.  Alex Collins has seen 17+ touches each of the past 4 games, including 2+ receptions in all 4.  Collins has scored 5 touchdowns in that time, and I look for the team to continue to revolve their offense around him as they push for a playoff spot.  The Ravens defense is pretty obvious; DeShone Kizer has thrown multiple interceptions in 5 games this season, including 3 against the Ravens in their first matchup.  The Browns are also tied for 4th in the NFL in sacks taken with 41, while the Ravens defense is tied for 3rd in sacks with 40.  $3,800 is expensive, but well worth it for the sack floor and turnover upside the Ravens bring in this matchup.

Disclaimer: the Top Stacks Report will be a weekly article highlighting my favorite correlated stacks of the week on both Draftkings and Fanduel.  I will be using Draftkings pricing in the headers.  Unless one site is specified, I like the stack for both.

Tom Brady ($7,600), Brandin Cooks ($7,100), and Le’Veon Bell ($9,300)

From a general fan perspective, the Patriots/Steelers matchup is the game to watch this week.  The Patriots have the #1 offense by DVOA…the Steelers have the #3 offense by DVOA….expect points to be scored.  Vegas agrees, as the 54 point total is by far the highest total of Week 15.  The Patriots rank #32 in run defense DVOA, and I will not be making a DFS lineup this weekend without Le’Veon Bell.  Over the past 4 games, Bell has 41 targets, 35 receptions, and 328 yards receiving; these are unheard of numbers for a running back who has also seen 86% of the running back carries over that span.  Bell is still under priced on both sites at a sub-5 figure price tag.  Obviously I don’t have to tell you Antonio Brown is also a good play, but without a ton of value this week, playing both Bell and Brown is difficult.  I am all in on Bell.  The Patriots just got embarrassed by the Dolphins on Monday and put themselves in a (basically) must win game for home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.  Tom Brady is in play every week, and I look for a big rebound game for both Brady and Brandin Cooks (1 catch for 38 yards on Monday).  Even with just 1 reception, Cooks had 7 targets and 46% of the team’s air yards (AirYards.com).  Box score watchers will be off him thinking that Chris Hogan’s return crushed him upside, but the upside was still there.

Latavius Murray ($4,700) and Vikings Defense ($3,500)

The Vikings are 11.5-point home favorites against a depleted Bengals defense.  The Bengals have given up 34.5 Draftkings points to Titans’ backfield, 28.1 to the Broncos, 33.4 to the Steelers, and 45.4 to the Bears over the past 5 games.  Running backs are going off every week against the Bengals defense that has been hit with the injury bug of late.  I like the combination of Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon to continue this trend alive.  I lean towards Murray due to the game script favoring his between the tackles grinding, as opposed to passing work for McKinnon, though I think both are in play.  The Bengals have an awful offensive line, ranking 28th in run blocking adjusted line yards and 22nd in adjusted sack rate, per Football Outsiders.  The Vikings’ #8 defense by DVOA should have no problems putting pressure on Andy Dalton and forcing mistakes.

Cam Newton ($6,400), Devin Funchess ($6,600), and Jordy Nelson ($6,300)

Cam Newton’s fantasy value is starting to come back to 2015 MVP levels.  Newton has returned to his running ways, carrying the ball 9+ times in 6 of his last 8 games.  The passing numbers aren’t there, however, having eclipsed 200 yards passing just once over his past 6.  Newton gets a very favorable matchup with the Packers pass defense that ranks 20th in DVOA and has lost multiple members of their secondary lately.  His #1 receiver, Devin Funchess, gets a great matchup with Damarious Randall, who is 5 inches shorter and 30 pounds lighter than Funchess.  Since Kelvin Benjamin’s departure, Funchess leads the Panthers with 42% of the team’s air yards and 28% of the targets, per AirYards.com.  On the other side of the ball, the greatest quarterback in the history of football makes his return.  I was really hoping to be able to get a $5,000 Jordy Nelson, but he was priced as if Aaron Rodgers would return.  Regardless, I will be going right back to Rodgers’ favorite target in Jordy Nelson.  I hope that him being only $500 and $100 cheaper than Davante Adams on Draftkings and Fanduel, respectively, will suppress his ownership.

Russell Wilson ($7,300), Mike Davis ($4,000), Paul Richardson ($4,600), Todd Gurley ($8,300)

The NFL MVP enters the biggest game of his season, where a win will put the Seahawks in the driver’s seat to win the NFC West and a loss could have them on the outside looking in for a playoff spot altogether.  This is a matchup between 2 teams that rank inside the top 12 in offensive DVOA as well as both being in the top 7 in Football Outsiders’ neutral pace metric.  You know how much I like high paced games, and this is the highest we’ve got in Week 15.  The total is also the 2nd highest on the main slate, so we should be targeting pieces of this game in every lineup made.  Russell Wilson is my favorite QB on the week from a raw fantasy points view, so I will be happy to play him on all teams I can fit him.  The Russell Wilson to Doug Baldwin stack is going to be popular this week, so my favorite tournament pivot is to Paul Richardson.  Since Week 10, Baldwin has seen 28 targets (16% of team) totaling 426 air yards (28%), compared to Richardson’s 28 targets (16%) totaling 423 air yards (28%).  The overall production hasn’t been as good as Baldwin’s, but Richardson has immense upside.  Richardson is also a huge price discount and will be lower owned.  With Kayvon Webster done for the season, the Rams secondary took a hit.  Whenever there’s a shake-up in a secondary, miscommunication can always be a factor leading to broken coverage.  Richardson is the deep threat that can exploit a big 50+ yard touchdown.  Mike Davis has pulled away from the pack as the lead back in Seattle, seeing 36 touches the past 2 games.  The Rams have given up the 2nd most fantasy points to RBs this season, and for some reason Draftkings has been slow to adjust his price appropriately.  On the Rams’ side, Todd Gurley is just an easy play every week.  Gurley is the closest thing we have in fantasy to Le’Veon Bell, and I am going to try to fit both into lineups this week if possible.  Gurley has 30 targets over his past 5 games to go with a near monopoly of the backfield.  The matchup isn’t ideal for Gurley, but neither was last week’s against the Eagles in which he scored 28.5 Draftkings points on “only” 16 touches.

Disclaimer: the Top Stacks Report will be a weekly article highlighting my favorite correlated stacks of the week on both Draftkings and Fanduel.  I will be using Draftkings pricing in the headers.  Unless one site is specified, I like the stack for both.

Good luck this week, and feel free to reach out with questions/feedback on twitter @EvanRosenberg0.  I would love to hear your thoughts and discuss further. 

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