DFS Week 2 Stacks Report – 9/17/17 (FanDuel & DraftKings)

Welcome back and to Week 2.  Unfortunately for me, the Seahawks/Packers game did not go as expected.  Other than that, it was a good week.  Hope you all made some money as well.

The Top Stacks Report will be a weekly article highlighting my favorite correlated stacks of the week on both Draftkings and Fanduel.  I will be using Draftkings pricing in the headers.  Unless one site is specified, I like the stack for both.

Let’s dive into Week 2…

Melvin Gordon ($7,000) and Chargers Defense ($2,800)

I think after a few weeks, you will start to see the process I take and be able to write this article better than me.  Until then, let’s talk about my favorite running back/defense stack: Melvin Gordon and the Los Angeles Chargers.  Opening game in Los Angeles at their little soccer stadium, the Chargers are (as of Thursday evening) a 3.5 point favorite projected to score 24.5 points against the Dolphins coming off their Week 1 bye.  I don’t believe Gordon is a special running back, but he’s an elite fantasy back given volume, opportunity, and situation.  His 18 carries for 54 yards against a below average Broncos run defense was not ideal.  What separates Gordon from the Leonard Fournettes of the world, is that his high rushing volume also comes with a role in the receiving game (5 receptions on 6 targets for 25 yards and a touchdown in Week 1).  This is what gives Melvin Gordon his high floor and overall RB1 weekly upside.  In Week 2, Gordon gets a Dolphins defense that finished 2016 22nd in rushing defense according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA, an advanced metric that attempts to eliminate strength of schedule.  Without David Johnson to lock into cash lineups, the dfs world will have to turn elsewhere.  Gordon as a home favorite against a bottom tier run defense in their Los Angeles opener can expect to see 20+ carries, 4+ targets, and all the goal line work.  On the other side of the ball lies Jay Cutler.  I can’t wait to hear Cutler commentating games from the booth next year, but until then let’s capitalize on Smokin’ Jay’s career 1.05 interceptions per game while he tries to chuck the ball to DeVante Parker being covered by Casey Hayward and Jason Verrett.

Also for those playing on Fanduel, you can run this stack with my new favorite kicker, Younghoe Koo ($4,600) who should go overlooked with the Patriots/Saints and Falcons/Packers games drawing the kicker attention.

Kirk Cousins ($6,100), Terrelle Pryor ($6,000), and Cooper Kupp ($4,100)

In Week 1 against the Eagles, Terrelle Pryor was second to DeAndre Hopkins with 166 air yards (AirYards.com) on his 11 targets.  Air yards is simply the yards the ball travels to the receiver on targets, which is a stat that has been tested to be predictive of future regression.  Basically, Pryor didn’t just see high volume, he also saw deep targets.  11 targets for Pryor is much different than 11 targets for someone like Golden Tate, who saw just 68 air yards on his 12 targets.  As road underdogs traveling across the country to Los Angeles to face the best team in football in the Los Angeles Rams (this is a joke), this a great matchup.  The Rams getting Aaron Donald back are an elite run defense (6th in run defense DVOA in 2016).  However, this game has the 4th highest total of the week at 46 points.  Kirk Cousins is expected to have less than 1% ownership…so I’m willing to take a shot on him in what could be a high scoring game featuring two below average pass defenses.  If Pryor continues to see double digit targets, I will play him in GPPs every week, regardless of matchup.  On the other side of the ball, we can go to rookie Cooper Kupp.  Running out of the slot, Kupp showed that he’s more than just a possession receiver.  In Week 1, he had an aDOT (average depth of target) of 12.3 yards according to AirYards.com, which is more in line with what we expected from Sammy Watkins, who posted an aDOT of 6.2 yards.  Keep playing Kupp until he’s priced appropriately.

Carson Palmer ($6,000), Larry Fitzgerald ($6,500), and John Brown ($5,000)

Last week was an absolute nightmare for the Arizona Cardinals.  Carson Palmer looked washed up, the defense allowed Matthew Stafford to throw for 292 yards and 4 touchdowns, and David Johnson is done until Christmas.  What makes dfs better than season-long fantasy is that we can look at this as an opportunity for others as opposed to crying ourselves to sleep and spending all our waiver budgets on Kerwynn Williams.  David Johnson had 9 targets in Week 1 that will need to go elsewhere now, as the dumpster fire of running backs the Cardinals will roll with do not collectively have DJ’s abilities (as he was the #1 overall receiver by Pro Football Focus in 2016). Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown, 13 and 9 targets respectively, are going to need to step up for this team to compete this season.  People are disappointed in Fitzgerald’s performance against the Lions, which will suppress his ownership.  He was 4th in the NFL in air yards with 144, so if his ownership is going to dip in GPPs from 35% to 10%, he makes for a great play against slot corner Nate Hairston that was burned by Cooper Kupp in Week 1.  John Brown was 6th in air yards in Week 1 with 121 yards.  Without DJ, look for some big plays from Fitz and Smokey Brown.  This will be a good leverage stack to attack the passing game as the general public plays Kerwynn “The Painter” Williams (nickname per Joe Marino).  There is no one on the Colts I want to play unless Bruce Arians comes out and says, “Patrick Peterson will not cover T.Y. Hilton at all.”

UPDATE: John Brown has been ruled out. I like the pivot to J.J. Nelson ($3,800) who will fill his role.  However, with Jaron Brown also in the mix, it is a much riskier pivot.  This makes me love Fitz that much more.

Tom Brady ($7,900), James White ($4,000), Chris Hogan ($5,600), and Ted Ginn ($4,800)

I bet you were waiting for me to get into the “big” games this week.  I can’t start out with the good plays and finish with the Carson Palmer and Cooper Kupp takes…then you’d stop reading.  Congratulations on getting here, now let’s talk about angry Tom Brady.  Thursday was a shocking performance for the Patriots.  One game sample sizes are difficult in football, but even more difficult with the Patriots.  There are some positives we can take away from the loss to the Chiefs, however.  Even though Mike Gillislee stole the show with 3 touchdowns, James White‘s usage stood out to me most when assessing this backfield.  White vs Gillislee proceeded as follows: 43 snaps to 23, 10 carries to 15, 5 targets to 0, and 4 red zone touches to 6, respectively.  This includes the Patriots leading the game going into the 4th quarter, so the game script was on both ends of the spectrum.  I expect to see the Patriots utilize White most between the 20s, and clearly trust him enough in the red zone to keep him on the field.  In a pace up shootout, White’s my guy.  Obviously, I think Brandin Cooks and Rob Gronkowski are good plays, but I’m trying to show the best way to be contrarian while still having exposure to the best teams/games.  After a disappointing first game from the man expected to fill Julian Edelman‘s role, Chris Hogan is a prime positive regression spot.  Danny Amendola ended up playing out of the slot the most, but suffered a concussion and has yet to be cleared.  Assuming he is unable to play, Chris Hogan should actually (for real this time, I swear) enter the Edelman slot role.  Hogan’s ownership is not expected to be as high as Cooks or Gronk, making him a nice pivot in a stack with Brady.  I have not even mentioned yet that the Saints secondary made Sam Bradford look like Tom Brady last week.  On the Saints side, we have another nice matchup.  The Patriots defense turned Alex Smith into Joe Montana and Kareem Hunt into Walter Payton.  I’m not ready to say the Patriots defense is a bottom 10 defense in the NFL, but it sure isn’t top 10.  One of my favorite weekly GPP plays this season is going to be Drew Brees‘ best deep threat, Ted Ginn.  He has big play potential in a matchup that allowed for a 75-yard touchdown to Tyreek Hill.  Ginn can take the top off the defense at any moment and Brees has one of the best deep balls in the league.

Matt Ryan ($7,500), Mohamed Sanu ($4,500), Ty Montgomery ($5,800), Randall Cobb ($5,900)

The Sunday Night game features the second highest over/under of the week at 54.  These teams have so many weapons, that I think it’s important to have at least one player from this game in all of your lineups.  Ty Montgomery is going to be the chalk this week, and rightfully so.  He is the every down back for one of the best offenses in the NFL with high target upside.  Players with his volume, floor, and ceiling are priced $2,000 up from Montgomery.  For me, even at 30+% ownership, I will be overweight… and most likely I will have him locked into all my lineups.  Since I will be playing Montgomery, I should look for some under-owned plays in this game for stacks.  I like both Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers (I’ll have both in stacks), but I will give Matty Ice the slight advantage due to opening night at the new stadium atmosphere.  It’s so close for me that I’m resorting to crowd noise narratives (please help me).  The Matt Ryan to Julio Jones stack will probably be the most popular of the week.  I think Mohamed Sanu is a viable pivot off Julio.  Sanu should see mostly Quinten Rollins coverage, who we tried to pick on with Doug Baldwin last week.  Rollins did nothing in that game to tell me he has transformed into a Pro Bowl slot corner, so we will continue to attack him.  In the two meetings last season, Sanu had stat lines of 9-84-1 and 5-52-1.  For the Packers, you’re going to see a theme brewing for the season: I think Randall Cobb is better than Davante Adams.  Cobb is projected to be higher owned, but I’m fine with that.  Cobb’s 13 targets resulted in just 43 air yards, compared to Adams’ 127 yards on 7 targets.  Adams will have big games this season, but on a consistent basis, I want Randall Cobb’s volume in PPR formats like Draftkings.

Stack of The Week

Ben Roethlisberger ($6,700), Le’Veon Bell ($9,800), Martavis Bryant ($5,500), and Adam Thielen ($5,000)

My favorite game to target in GPPs is the Steelers/Vikings game.  After people were let down by Le’Veon Bell last week, his usual 30%+ ownership is expected to dip under 20%.  Le’Veon Bell. Under 20%. No David Johnson in sight.  You might be asking yourself, “What’s the catch?”  The best part is…THERE IS NO CATCH.  I believe last week was a punishment for his holdout, but the Steelers almost lost to the Browns because of it.  I expect no Todd Haley nonsense this week with Bell’s touches.  The Steelers are at home, giving Ben Roethlisberger the upside for GPPs.  I understand the matchup with the Vikings is less than ideal, but I think the Steelers can put up points, and so does Vegas with their 25.25 team total.  Antonio Brown will be shadowed by Xavier Rhodes.  I believe Brown can win this matchup, but it should at least keep his target volume in check.  This should open up the door for extra targets to the other killer bees: Le’Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant.  Bryant is quickly becoming my favorite play of the week with his matchup against Trae Waynes and his projected ownership under 10%.  As far as air yards, in Week 1 Bryant had 89 on 6 targets compared to Brown’s 90 on 11 targets.  Brown will always get the volume, but when he is in a tough matchup we can expect Big Ben to take a couple extra deep shots in Bryant’s direction.  The Vikings are coming off a short week after a big win against the Saints.  The Vikings are forreal and will look to prove it traveling to Pittsburgh in Week 2.  Draftkings pricing comes out before Monday Night Football, so the Vikings players’ prices do not reflect their performance.  This has produced $6,100 Stefon Diggs and $5,000 Adam Thielen.  Both players are criminally under-priced and firmly in play.  Adam Thielen had 157 yards in Week 1, after breaking 200 in Week 16 last season; this does not appear to be a fluke.  Thielen does give you a bit more salary relief to play Bell.

Good luck this week, and feel free to reach out with questions/feedback on twitter.

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