DFS Week 4 Stacks Report – 10/1/2017 (Draftkings & Fanduel)

Welcome back and to Week 4.  Looking back at my Week 3 article, all the stacks I wrote up either went off or flopped; no in between.  I’m happy to report that the Russell Wilson to Doug Baldwin connection finally hit big!  (I hope you played the Thursday-Monday slate to get the stack in this week).  Unfortunately, one of my favorite players, Darren Sproles, tore his ACL and broke his arm on the same play.  Let’s hope he decides to come back for another season so we can play him in DFS again.

I hope you had a profitable week like I did, but oh what could have been if that Matthew Stafford to Golden Tate touchdown counted to end the game….but we move on.

Disclaimer: the Top Stacks Report will be a weekly article highlighting my favorite correlated stacks of the week on both Draftkings and Fanduel.  I will be using Draftkings pricing in the headers.  Unless one site is specified, I like the stack for both.

Lets dive into Week 4…

Ezekiel Elliott ($8,200) and Cowboys Defense ($2,500)

After a week in which game script got away from the Cowboys early in Denver, we saw Ezekiel Elliott get back to his normal workload Monday night against the Cardinals.  The 22 carries and 4 targets were good to see going into another plus matchup as 6 point home favorites against a Rams team that just let Carlos Hyde run for 25-84-2 on the ground.  In 2016, the Rams ranked 6th in rush defense and 20th in pass defense per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric.  Through 3 weeks this season, the script has been flipped; the Rams are 19th in rush defense and 6th in pass defense DVOA.  With a new coaching staff and Wade Phillips moving the defense from a 4-3 to 3-4, this team might still be dealing with some growing pains…or not, I’m no NFL scout.  I’m not betting on them going into Dallas and having it all sorted out yet.  Zeke has the best overall points projection of the week, and he’s a lock in cash games (head to heads, double ups, and small field contests).  Through 3 weeks, Jared Goff has not attempted more than 29 passes in a game.  The Rams have yet to play in really negative game script, and this could be the first week.  I am expecting the Cowboys to put points on the board early and force Goff to throw more than 30 times for the first time since Week 14 of last season.  I’m not convinced that Goff is over the young QB mistakes just yet.

GPP Pivot: Zeke will be one of the highest owned players on the week, so I will be using a passing game stack of Dak Prescott ($6,200),  Dez Bryant ($6,500), and Robert Woods ($3,900).  If you make multiple lineups and play to play Zeke on most of them, I advise to have a hedge stack.  Basically, the thinking is that if Zeke has a let down game, production should funnel to the pass game.  The total for this game has moved up 1.5 points to 48 and the Rams have gotten 1.5 points on the line moving from +7.5 to +6.  People much smarter than me think this will be a close high scoring game.  If Zeke doesn’t go off, we can expect Dak and company to have a nice day.  Dez Bryant was able to score against Aqib Talib and Patrick Peterson the past two weeks, so I’m not scared of Trumaine Johnson or whoever the Rams trot out there.  Again, the Rams pass defense has been good so far as a whole, but did give up 7-142 to Pierre Garcon last week.  On the other side of the ball, I really like Robert Woods.  I bet you didn’t realize he led the Rams in targets, did you?  Well he does with 19% of the team’s targets.  He also leads the team with 31% of the Rams’ total air yards (AirYards.com).  Woods is also $400 and $2,000 cheaper than Cooper Kupp and Sammy Watkins, respectively.  On a PPR site like Draftkings, I think Woods is in play in all formats as a cheap wide receiver.

Trevor Siemian ($5,200), Demaryius Thomas ($6,300), Emmanuel Sanders ($6,100), Jared Cook ($3,400)

After a tough loss traveling across the country to Buffalo, the Broncos return home to face a Raiders team that just got embarrassed on National TV by the Redskins.  Trevor Siemian and the Broncos receivers have a dream matchup at home against this Raiders secondary.  Last year’s 25th ranked pass defense (DVOA) has started this season 28th in the same metric.  The Broncos should be score at will on offense, and I expect to see the Broncos get their QB back on track this week as a home favorite with a 46 point total.  I have concerns about the Denver backfield with Jamaal Charles getting the goal line touchdown last week, and if this is in response to C.J. Anderson‘s lack of red zone efficiency.  Per Sharp Football Stats, Anderson has a 27% success rate on red zone carries, to Charles’ 57% (which includes a touchdown).  If Charles is going to take 10+ touches a game and red zone work, this backfield will get very difficult.  This leads me to the passing game, that’s much easier to figure out.  Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas combine for 54% of the team’s targets and 68% of air yards (AirYards.com).  Sanders is cheaper but expected to be more popular, so let’s just play both!  The 3-man Denver stack is always in play in plus matchups at home.  The Raiders side is a lot more difficult, with the Broncos defense being elite.  The one leak thus far for the Broncos defense has been covering the tight end.  They rank 25th in pass DVOA vs the tight end and 28th in success rate allowed to tight ends (Sharp Football Stats).  This could be due to their cornerbacks playing so well that targets are funneled to the tight ends, but it’s still actionable information.  If we expect Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree to be held in check, this opens the door for Jared Cook to have a few extra targets.  At $3,400, he’s the only Raider I want in my Broncos stacks.

Deshaun Watson ($5,200), DeAndre Hopkins ($6,400), and Rishard Matthews ($4,900)

DeAndre Hopkins has 40% of the Texans’ targets through 3 weeks.  The volume is outrageous, but like last season the efficiency is not.  Hopkins has caught 21 of his 37 targets with one touchdown.  Hopkins will continue to see the most volume out of the players in his $6,400 price range, making him a great cash play until he’s priced higher.  For tournaments, we need more production from him.  Being a home underdog against the 24th ranked pass defense by DVOA, the Titans, Hopkins is in a great matchup.  This should be a low scoring, run heavy game; the issue for the Texans is that they have been unable to sustain any sort of run game thus far.  With the volume Hopkins is seeing, we don’t need 35 attempts from Deshaun Watson to hit value.  Watson also doesn’t need to have a high volume passing game to hit fantasy value, because he uses his legs efficiently.  In his first 2 career starts, Watson has rushed 13 times for 108 yards and 1 touchdown.  If he can throw for two touchdowns (both to Hopkins), we’re in business with his rushing output.  Without Corey Davis again, we can look to the Titans #1 receiver, Rishard Matthews.  Last week I wrote about Eric Decker because I thought he was going to benefit as the slot receiver.  According to Pro Football Focus, Matthews sees 31% of snaps from the slot; he gets moved all over to get the optimal matchup (because he’s their #1 receiver).  I ended up moving a lot of my Decker exposure to Matthews last week, as my research continues all the way through Sunday at 1pm.  Be sure to follow me on Twitter and ask me questions – I’m always willing to help out.  Back to the football, Matthews has seen 24% of the team’s targets through 3 weeks, and 29% of the air yards (AirYards.com).  At this point, Matthews is the only Titans player I can trust in dfs.

Eli Manning ($5,700), Odell Beckham ($8,900), Evan Engram ($3,000), and DeSean Jackson ($5,200)

WARNING: Follow the news this weekend on all the Tampa Bay injuries, especially Brent Grimes.  If he’s out, Odell Beckham will see the same Vernon Hargreaves matchup that Stefon Diggs exploited for 8-173-2 last week.  Last week the Eagles decided the best course of action was to “shadow” Beckham with Jalen Mills…Pro Football Focus’ lowest graded cornerback in 2016.  Regardless of the Eagles poor decision, it was enough to tell me Beckham is relatively healthy.  A matchup with Hargreaves might not be as good as one with shadow Mills, but it’s damn sure close.  Buccs linebackers Kwon Alexander and Lavonte David are both expected to miss this game, which should open things up in the middle of the field for Evan Engram.  I’m not a fan of playing rookie tight ends in fantasy, but Engram has seen 5-7-7 targets in his first 3 games.  For $3,000, Engram is right there with Cook as my favorite cheap tight ends this week.  The Buccaneers are pretty straight forward: shadow corner on the other side? If no, play Mike Evans.  If yes, play DeSean Jackson.  (Evans is realistically always in play because he’s a freak and can win in any matchup).  Against the Giants and Janoris Jenkins, no need to play Evans.  Jackson will get plenty of snaps against Eli Apple, currently Pro Football Focus’ 95th ranked corner out of 109 qualified (that’s not good).  Jackson’s 21.9 yards is 2nd in the NFL behind Martavis Bryant‘s 22.4 yards in aDOT (average depth of target) for receivers with at least 10 targets.  He should have some opportunities for the home run ball this week, and separation from Eli Apple shouldn’t be a problem for DeSean.

Stack of The Week

Carson Wentz ($6,600), Alshon Jeffery ($6,200), Zach Ertz ($6,300), and Tyrell Williams ($4,400)

My favorite game for fantasy points this week is the Eagles/Chargers matchup.  We have a total that has risen 1.5 points up to 48, tied for 3rd highest on the slate.  There’s also been some sharp money placed on the Chargers, moving the line to Chargers -2 at home.  The Eagles are traveling across the country coming off a huge win against a division rival on a 61 yard field goal.  The Chargers are 0-3 and are in desperation mode already in Week 4.  After listening to a few dfs related podcasts early in the week, I was ready to write Alshon Jeffery off, because of the matchup with Casey Hayward.  On Thursday however, I heard Greg Cosell (the GOAT) say that Hayward has been playing primarily on the left side and did not shadow Tyreek Hill last week.  I looked into it, and according to Pro Football Focus Hayward has played 85% of snaps from the left corner position.  I think we have an edge here, as the dfs community as a whole does not seem to have a read on who is shadowing and who isn’t yet.  Alshon is projected to be around 5% ownership, and this could be a great spot if the Eagles can keep him on the opposite side of Hayward, where rookie Desmond King resides.  My second favorite Eagles pass catcher this week is Zach Ertz.  I had been locking him into lineups this season due to his egregious price.  He’s finally priced appropriately, but I’m still in on him here.  The Chargers are 31st in pass defense DVOA against the tight end, which includes the 1 reception game for Travis Kelce last week, and 31st in success rate to the tight end (Sharp Football Analysis).   I think a Carson Wentz stack with Jeffery and Ertz, who combine for 48% and 58% of team targets and air yards, respectively is the best way to stack the Eagles.  It’s an expensive use of the salary cap, so I like an under-priced Tyrell Williams to run the stack back on the Chargers side.  I’ll also be using Keenan Allen in my game stacks, but Tyrell also has big upside.  Keenan has the safest floor, but it’s going to be difficult to fit some of the stud running backs with that incredibly expensive stack.  As I said earlier with Beckham, all of these Eagles cornerbacks are plus matchups, especially Jalen Mills.  According to Pro Football Focus, Mills was targeted 21 times last week out of Eli Manning‘s 47 attempts.  That’s the most targets towards one corner in a game in over a decade…absurd.  Travis Benjamin is the boom/bust play on the Chargers that can hit big (33% of team air yards per AirYards.com).  I will have plenty of game stacks from this one, but Wentz-Alshon-Ertz-Tyrell is my favorite.

Good luck this week, and feel free to reach out with questions/feedback on twitter @EvanRosenberg0.  I would love to hear your thoughts and discuss further. 

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