Disclaimer: the Top Stacks Report will be a weekly article highlighting my favorite correlated stacks of the week on both Draftkings and Fanduel.  I will be using Draftkings pricing in the headers.  Unless one site is specified, I like the stack for both.

Lets dive into Week 6…

Mark Ingram ($4,400) and Saints Defense ($2,700)

The Saints/Lions game has the highest total of the week, but has experienced some sharp line movement on both the Saints and the under.  The Saints have moved a half point to 4-point home favorites receiving only 42% of bets, and the total has dropped from 50.5 to 50 receiving only 27% of bets (numbers via Fantasylabs).  These line movements might not seem significant, but since 73% of bets have come in on the over, this tells us there are some big bets on the under; Vegas is begging people to take the over.  Looking a bit closer into the matchup, and I can understand why.  The Lions play incredibly slow as they’re 27th in situation neutral pace, and even 25th in pace while trailing by 7+ points according to Fantasy Outsiders.  The Lions offensive line has been less than stellar, ranking 31st in run blocking and 29th in pass protection having allowed 18 sacks through 5 weeks (Fantasy Outsiders).  The Saints defense isn’t the complete dumpster fire we’re used to anymore, and I expect them to be able to get some pressure on a banged up Matthew Stafford in this matchup.  Transitioning to the other side of the ball, we have the Saints that are more up tempo, except they are bottom half of the league in pace when they’re winning or down by less than 7.  Basically, this game could be more paced down than most are expecting.  The Saints traded Adrian Peterson to Arizona to replace another washed up running back in Chris Johnson.  Peterson’s departure should give Mark Ingram a slight bump in touches.  Ingram has seen 14 carries each of the past two games (one was a blowout win and the other a blowout loss), as well as 4+ targets each game this season.  Ingram has yet to score a touchdown or eclipse 100 yards from scrimmage, but he has 10+ fantasy points every week.  Ingram is a home favorite with a floor of 10 points for $4,400, make sure he’s on your cash teams.

Javorius Allen ($5,400) and Ravens Defense ($3,700)

I wrote the following about Javorius Allen in my Week 6 Pickem article:

If Terrance West misses this game, Javorius Allen is a lock for me in this tier.  The Ravens are 6.5 point favorites at home against rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears.  Last week in positive game-script, Allen had 21 carries and 5 targets.  Allen is 6th in the NFL in red zone carries with 14 and has seen 5+ targets in his last 4 games.

Since I wrote that, West has been ruled out.  There has also been some John Harbaugh coach speak about the fumble issues of rookie running back Alex Collins.  I would be shocked if we don’t see 20 touches for Allen this week.  If we can project 20+ touches for $5,400, I’m not sure why people aren’t as excited to play him as I am.  My internet friend Anthony Amico started the hashtag #BuckForBucks, so make sure to use it when you post screenshots of Buck winning you all the money.  The Ravens defense, 6th in DVOA by Football Outsiders, gets to face Mitchell Trubisky in his first road start of his career coming off a short week.  Good luck, Mitch Mitchell.

Jameis Winston ($6,200), Desean Jackson ($5,800), and John Brown ($4,500)

The Buccaneers are 1 point road favorites traveling across the country to face the Cardinals.  The total has moved up 1.5 points to where it currently sits at 45.5.  I think people are going to overlook this game that has really good fantasy potential.  The Cardinals and Bucs rank 2nd and 3rd respectively in pace according to Football Outsiders.  Besides their first game of the year when they blew out the Bears, Jameis Winston has attempted 40, 38, and 46 passes each of the last 3.  He’s thrown for 328+ yards in each game, and has 6 total touchdowns.  With 21+ Draftkings points in each game, it’s amazing that no one is discussing Winston and this game in general.  The Cardinals 24th ranked pass defense by DVOA (Football Outsiders) is not what it used to be outside of Patrick Peterson.  On the other side of the field, Justin Bethel should draw Desean Jackson with Peterson shadowing Mike Evans.  Bethel is Pro Football Focus’ 90th ranked corner out of 110.  Bethel won’t be able to keep up with Desean.  Last week, Bethel let up a bomb 60 yard touchdown to Torrey Smith; the Cardinals are 27th against the deep ball by DVOA.  Look for Desean to have a monster game with the potential for a couple long ones.  On the other side of the ball, I’m mostly interested in John Brown.  He appears to be fully healthy as he’s been taken off the injury report and played 80% of the snaps last week after seeing only 61% two weeks ago.  John Brown also led the Cardinals in air yards last week, and has seen 7 targets in two straight games.  This is a good matchup for him against a Bucs secondary that ranks 24th in DVOA against the deep pass.

Kirk Cousins ($6,800), Jamison Crowder ($4,000), and Pierre Garcon ($6,300)

I am numbers driven with most of my analysis, but sometimes I can’t help but fall for a nice narrative.  This week, we have Kirk Cousin facing his former (and probably future) coach in Kyle Shanahan.  This could be an important game for him to prove to Shanahan that he’s worth the big money contract he’ll be looking for this off-season when he inevitably leaves Washington.  The Redskins are 11 point home favorites against the Niners traveling coast to coast for a 1pm game.  Game script could get away from the Washington passing game, but they will be without Rob Kelley and Samaje Perine has not proven to be an NFL caliber starting running back yet.  In two games seeing double-digit carries, Perine has rushing lines of 19-49 and 21-67 against the Raiders and Rams respectively: two bottom half run defenses.  The Redskins have just been unable to move the ball on the ground.  Washington’s 28.75 team total ranks 2nd on the week, and I expect the scoring to come through the air attack.  I think there’s merit to playing Jamison Crowder, Terrelle Pryor, and Jordan Reed against the San Francisco 26th ranked pass defense by DVOA.  I went with Crowder here because of the drop in price from $5,100 down to $4,000.  He laid an egg with 1 catch for -7 yards on Monday night football before the bye week, but he was playing through a hamstring injury.  Coming off a bye week, Crowder is off the injury report and should get his usual 5-7 targets.  For $4,000, Crowder is very much in play.  Pierre Garcon has seen double-digit targets in each of the 3 games not against the Seahawks or Patrick Peterson and the Cardinals.  The Redskins will be without Josh Norman, making Garcon even more enticing.  Garcon also has the second most receiving yards in the NFL of players yet to score a touchdown (behind Adam Thielen who I love this week) per AirYards.com.  Even though he plays on the Niners, we should expect some touchdowns to come for Garcon.  Why not in a revenge game against his former team?  Last week he faced another former team in the Colts and went for 8 receptions on 11 targets for 94 yards.  Revenge narratives are real.

Stack of The Week

Deshaun Watson ($6,700), DeAndre Hopkins ($8,100), and Ricardo Louis ($3,900)

I know I know, Deshaun Watson to DeAndre Hopkins is everyone’s top stack this week.  I am going to eat the chalk here, as these guys will both be in my cash game lineup and many tournament teams.  The Texans have a Vegas team total of 28.25 and are 10 point favorites against the Browns.  The Texans have scored 124 points over the past 3 weeks…that’s an average of over 40 points per game.  While Deshaun Watson’s insane efficiency in not sustainable, we will have to wait another week to start preaching regression since the Browns (31st in pass defense DVOA) won’t be able to slow him down.  Sure, DeAndre Hopkins is finally priced correctly, but outside of the Patriots game (8 targets) he has seen a MINIMUM of 12 targets per game.  The Browns have allowed the following receiving lines: 11-182 to Antonio Brown, 7-153-1 to T.Y. Hilton, and 5-63-1 to A.J. Green in a blowout.  The Texans defense has lost J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus for the season, which is devastating to what has been an elite defense the past few seasons.  I believe the shake up to the defense could allow the Browns to put points on the board.  The total in this game currently has the biggest line movement on the week going from 44 to 46.5, so it appears people agree with me.  I will have exposure to Kevin Hogan at $4,600 in tournaments to differentiate myself from all the Watson-Hopkins lineups.  Another way I’ll get a unique lineup is by bringing back the popular stack with a Browns player; most people won’t go that route.  It’s difficult for me to trust any Browns receiver after drafting Kenny Britt on all my season long/best ball teams and playing Rashard Higgins multiple weeks in dfs so far.  It looks like Ricardo Louis is (the new) top option in Cleveland, after having one of the most successful games against Morris Claiborne coverage last week with 5 receptions on 7 targets for 71 yards.  Don’t go all in on Louis by any means, but he and Duke Johnson are the only Browns weapons I have much interest in.  Make sure to get some Kevin Hogan in your life this week.

Good luck this week, and feel free to reach out with questions/feedback on twitter @EvanRosenberg0.  I would love to hear your thoughts and discuss further. 

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