DFS Week 7 Stacks Report – 10/22/2017 (Draftkings & Fanduel)

Disclaimer: the Top Stacks Report will be a weekly article highlighting my favorite correlated stacks of the week on both Draftkings and Fanduel.  I will be using Draftkings pricing in the headers.  Unless one site is specified, I like the stack for both.

I apologize if this article is shorter than usual, as I’m going away for the weekend and have less time than usual.  Lets dive into Week 7…

Melvin Gordon ($7,000) and Chargers Defense ($2,400)

Melvin Gordon has been getting insane usage the past 2 weeks after dealing with the knee injury.  He has 45 carries, 20 targets, 313 total yards, and 4 touchdowns….if that didn’t convince you, the Broncos allowed 117 yards on 21 carries to Orleans Darkwa last week.  I believe Gordon is not getting the love he deserves as a fantasy option (he’s not an elite real life player) and I believe he’s still under-priced for his usage and role.  The Broncos offense is a mess right now.  Trevor Siemian is dealing with a shoulder injury, Emmanuel Sanders has already been ruled out, and even Demaryius Thomas is hobbling into this game with a calf injury.  The Chargers have the #5 ranked pass rush by Football Outsiders and will go up against the #24 pass protection offensive line in the Broncos.  The Chargers defense has a nice sack floor and has big upside if Siemian is playing at less than 100%.

Jared Goff ($5,800), Robert Woods ($4,000), and John Brown ($4,900)

The Cardinals pass defense, ranked 24th by DVOA, has become a defense that we shouldn’t just stop fearing but can actively target.  Outside of Patrick Peterson, this secondary has been awful.  We should expect Peterson to cover Sammy Watkins, which means we find the #2 option that gets a matchup with Justin Bethel and play him.  DFS is a lot more simple than most believe.  Robert Woods would be that guy going up against Bethel, so we should play him.  He has gotten talked up a bit in the industry, but people don’t like targeting receivers against the Cardinals.  Woods is seeing 6-8 targets a week over the past month, so for $4,000 on Draftkings you can do much worse.  The Cardinals run defense is ranked 4th by DVOA, so I think the Rams focus more on the passing game in this one.  Jared Goff‘s attempts have been all over the place this season ranging from 21 to 47.  The pace of this game with a 46.5 total should have Goff throwing 40+ times against a bad secondary.  He only had 1 game over 20 points this season, but as a low owned tournament option, he’s in play for me.  On the other side, I do like Carson Palmer also, but I like the savings and ownership drop to Goff slightly more.  John Brown is my favorite play from the Cardinals receiving corp.  Here’s what I said about Brown in my Pickem article:

He’s back to full health and has 26% of the Cardinals’ air yards (highest on the team).  The Rams rank 24th in explosive pass plays according to Sharp Football Stats, so there’s potential for Smokey Brown to break a couple long ones.

Drew Brees ($7,600), Michael Thomas ($7,500), and Randall Cobb ($5,300)

The Saints/Packers game has the highest total of the main slate at 47.5.  It sucks Aaron Rodgers isn’t playing, but I am going into this game in the hopes that Brett Hundley is capable enough to make it fantasy relevant still on both sides.  Drew Brees is having one of the worst seasons of his career for fantasy production, but this is the ideal matchup against the Packers secondary.  If Brees is unable to throw for 300 yards this week, it might be time to avoid him until he gets the Ben Roethlisberger price drop.  I hope the dud he put up last week lowers his ownership, but I still think he’ll be popular.  My favorite receiver play of the week is Michael Thomas going up against all of these Packers corners that have given up the following receiving lines: 5-108 to Julio Jones, 10-111-1 to A.J. Green, and 5-52-1 to Dez Bryant.  Let’s hope Brees to Thomas bring me home a million dollars!  On the other side, it’s much tougher to figure out who Hundley’s go-to receivers will be.  My favorite play is Randall Cobb, because he has the best matchup against Pro Football Focus’ 107th best corner (out of 108) Kenny Vaccaro who is now manning the slot.  Cobb will be the high percentage throw safety blanket for his inexperienced QB this week.

Marcus Mariota ($6,900), Derrick Henry ($5,500), Rishard Matthews ($5,500), and Ricardo Louis ($4200)

Mariota looked like he wasn’t completely healthy Monday night coming back from injury, but I think another week should help.  Again, make sure to check up on injury reports this weekend.  Mariota had 2 rushing attempts for 0 yards against the Colts, which is a bit worrisome.  I only want to roster Mariota if we are getting the rushing floor and upside he brings with his legs.  So assuming reports are that he’s 100% good to go Sunday morning, fire him up in your tournament lineups.  Many people are hyping up Delanie Walker this week, and I understand the Browns are atrocious against the tight end, but Walker is $5,800 and hasn’t put up more than 8.1 fantasy points this season.  He’s priced almost as high as Zach Ertz and Travis Kelce, which is insane to me for a tight end who has no more than 4 receptions and 61 yards since Week 1.  I will pivot instead to Rishard Matthews who has without question been Mariota’s favorite receiver over the past full year.  Again, without trying to sound redundant to those who also read my Stacks Report article, I said this about Matthews:

DISCLAIMER: Make sure to check Sunday morning for Demarco Murray’s status.  If he’s out, Derrick Henry will be in all of my lineups.  The Browns have a good run defense (#3 in DVOA), but Henry would see 20+ touches at a relatively cheap price for running backs.  I do like the passing game more for the Titans traveling to Cleveland as 5.5 point favorites.

I understand he will get the same matchup that limited DeAndre Hopkins to 2 receptions last week, but also gave up 11-182 to Antonio Brown, 7-153-1 to T.Y. Hilton, and 5-63-1 to A.J. Green in a blowout.  I will continue to target #1 receivers against the Browns.

On the other side, it’s difficult to trust any receiver while the Browns play quarterback roulette every week.  If I had to pick one, I’ll go back to Ricardo Louis who’s seeing the most consistent targets over the past month with 6, 9, 8, and 7.  The Titans have the 25th ranked pass defense by DVOA, so the Browns should be able to move the ball.

Stack of The Week

Dak Prescott ($7,300), Dez Bryant ($7,800), Pierre Garcon ($5,800), George Kittle ($3,600)

I want to start out by saying I REALLY hope C.J. Beathard is competent, because I’ll have a lot of Cowboys teams.  This is another potential Dez Bryant top wide receiver of the week spot against San Francisco corner Dontae Johnson.  Bryant had 14.8 points against the Packers secondary at high ownership, so maybe people think he doesn’t have the ceiling anymore and will look elsewhere.  He has 21 targets the past 2 weeks, and 10 red zone looks on the season.  The Cowboys’ 26.25 team total is the highest on the main slate against a defense that ranks 13th in rush DVOA and 26th against the pass.  When factoring price, I think Dak Prescott is the best quarterback of the week.  He has shown an insanely high floor, having at least 17 points each week this season.  Dak’s throw for 250 yards and 3 touchdowns each of the past 2 games, and he’s in another great matchup.  I think there’s options on the other side of the ball (again, hoping and praying Beathard isn’t a trainwreck).  Pierre Garcon is someone I’ve had exposure to every week this year and will continue to at this price.  Garcon is seeing the volume to be a $7,000 wide receiver, but being on the Niners must be keeping his price in check.  Outside of the Seahawks game, Garcon’s targets this season are as followed: 10, 10, 8, 11, and 12.  He has yet to score a touchdown, but has seen 6 red zone targets.  Dallas has the 23rd ranked pass defense by DVOA, and his matchup with Cowboys corner Anthony Brown is one to target.  My favorite overall play of the week is George Kittle.  Over the past two games, Kittle has 17 targets (2nd on the team to Garcon).  According to Player Profiler, Kittle has an 88th percentile SPARQ-x score, which is a measure of athleticism.  Oh, and most importantly, Kittle and fellow rookie C.J. Beathard were college roommates last year at Iowa….if you believe in narratives, you’re playing George Kittle this week.  Below see a picture of Beathard and Kittle in college so you know I’m not lying.

Good luck this week, and feel free to reach out with questions/feedback on twitter @EvanRosenberg0.  I would love to hear your thoughts and discuss further. 

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