DFS Week 8 Stacks Report – 10/29/2017 (Draftkings & Fanduel)

Disclaimer: the Top Stacks Report will be a weekly article highlighting my favorite correlated stacks of the week on both Draftkings and Fanduel.  I will be using Draftkings pricing in the headers.  Unless one site is specified, I like the stack for both.

Lets dive into Week 8…

Joe Mixon ($4,700) and Bengals Defense ($3,600)

I have been holding onto Joe Mixon on multiple season long teams, rejecting trade offers left and right waiting for the breakout game.  The Bengals are 10.5 point home favorites against the Colts (30th in Football Outsider’s defense DVOA ranking).  The one bright spot for the Colts defense this year had been 1st round rookie Malik Hooker, who tore his ACL last week and is now done for the season.  The Colts have allowed a combined 84.6 Draftkings points the past two weeks to opposing running backs (Jaguars and Titans); those are not so good numbers if you didn’t know.  Mixon’s workload is a bit of a concern, as he went into the bye week with touch counts of 21, 21, and 15; then last week coming off the bye, Mixon saw just 10 touches.  Mixon has had a narrow range of outcomes the past 4 games, scoring between 8.8 and 13.1 PPR points in each.  Over that stretch, he has 8 red zone carries and has only scored one touchdown.  So for $4,700 and an 8-10 point floor with big upside, Mixon is arguably the best overall play of the week.  The Bengals are the top defense on the week without factoring price.  The Colts offensive line that allowed 10 sacks to the Jaguars last week is ranked dead last in pass protection according to Football Outsiders.  The Bengals are tied for 9th in the NFL with 18 sacks thus far (and they’re post bye week).  This stack is cash viable and I’ll have it in most of my contests.

Dak Prescott ($7,300), Ezekiel Elliott ($9,200), Jason Witten ($4,200), and Chris Thompson ($5,800)

Last week I wrote about Dak Prescott and Dez Bryant, but did not have Ezekiel Elliott on those teams.  Man, what a mistake that ended up being.  If Zeke was on those teams instead of Le’Veon Bell, I’d probably be writing this from my private island.  As you can see, I don’t plan on making that mistake again.  This Redskins defense is banged up, losing Jonathan Allen to the IR last week and Josh Norman has yet to practice in full.  If Norman is out, I’ll be including Dez Bryant into this stack, so make sure to keep an eye on the injury report Sunday morning.  Carson Wentz lit this defense up for 4 touchdowns last week, and I think Dak will have similar success.  His rushing floor and upside makes him an elite fantasy QB; he has 3 rushing touchdowns over the past 4 weeks and 24+ rushing yards in all but one game this season.  Ezekiel Elliott has been on fire since the Broncos game.  Over his past 4, he’s averaging: 28 touches, 146 yards from scrimmage, and 1.5 touchdowns.  On the main slate without Le’Veon Bell, Zeke is clearly the top upside RB if paying up at the position.  If Norman plays and shadows Dez, this would open up for extra targets elsewhere.  Jason Witten has 1 red zone target each of the past 3 weeks, which included a 10 target game.  The Redskins rank 28th in DVOA defending the tight end and are allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to tight ends.  On the other side, the Redskins pass catchers are difficult to assess with Terrelle Pryor and Josh Doctson not having set roles in the offense.  The only guy I can really trust is Chris Thompson, who’s scored 15+ fantasy points in 5 of 6 games this year.  His price is starting to get expensive, but the upside is there against a Cowboys defense that ranks 30th in DVOA defending running backs out of the backfield.

Mark Ingram ($7,400) and Saints Defense ($3,400)

Mark Ingram‘s new found usage and role in the Saints offense makes him one of the best fantasy RBs in the NFL.  Even though his price has risen $3,000 on Draftkings the past two weeks, I believe he’s still under-priced.  Since the Adrian Peterson trade, Ingram has had: 47 carries, 219 rushing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 10 targets in 2 weeks.  If this usage continues, Ingram is a top 5 RB for fantasy.  The Saints are 9 point home favorites, so Ingram should have the right game script.  The Saints defense is a great stacking partner, as Mitchell Trubisky, who’s taken 4 sacks each of the past two weeks, travels to New Orleans.  Trubisky has only attempted 23 passes total the past two weeks, as the Bears are relying on the run game.  This week game script should force the Bears to throw more, so there should be potential for turnovers.

Philip Rivers ($6,300), Melvin Gordon ($8,100), Keenan Allen ($7,300), and Chris Hogan ($6,500)

The Patriots were able to hold an opposing QB under 300 yards passing for the first time this season thanks to some fog machines last week.  Assuming we don’t have any more Patriots shenanigans, I expect the Chargers and Philip Rivers to expose the Patriots horrible defense that’s ranked 31st by DVOA.  Dont’a Hightower, the leader of the Patriots defense, is done for the season.  This game has a 48.5 total, and I think the Chargers will have no problem moving the ball.  We can stack Philip Rivers with his main weapons Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen.  Without Hightower, Gordon could be in for a ceiling game.  The Patriots rank 29th in DVOA against RBs out of the backfield, and Gordon has 24 targets the past 3 weeks.  The Patriots defense is overall bad, but they’re especially vulnerable in the short passing game, where they rank 31st in passer rating allowed to QBs according to Sharp Football Stats.  Keenan Allen is 3rd in the NFL in targets and T-6th in red zone targets.  The Patriots aren’t as easy to gauge, but if Casey Hayward covers Brandin Cooks for the majority of the game, Chris Hogan is my favorite option.  The Chargers also rank 5th in DVOA against the tight end; I don’t think that matters much when you have the GOAT Rob Gronkowski who’s always in play, but I prefer Hogan slightly more given the matchup.

Stack of The Week

Russell Wilson ($6,500), Doug Baldwin ($6,900), and DeAndre Hopkins ($7,500)

I don’t really have to say much at this point, because if you’ve been reading my articles this season you know the drill.  Going into this season, Russell Wilson was my favorite QB in fantasy and I really liked him to have an MVP season.  I’m ready for the second half Seahawks to show up and start playing like the Super Bowl contender they are.  The total in this Seahawks/Texans game has already risen 3 points early in the week from 43 to 46.  That’s a major line move that implies Vegas completely misjudged this game, so let’s not make the same mistake.  Since the injuries to J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus, the Texans only opponent has been the Kevin Hogan led Browns, so we haven’t really seen the dismantled Texans defense in a tough matchup yet.  The Texans did allowed 29.8 fantasy points to Alex Smith the week prior.  The Seahawks will be the first big test since the injuries, and I expect them to fail pretty miserably.  To pair with Wilson, I’ll be using his favorite target Doug Baldwin, who has one of the best matchups of the week against slot corner Kareem Jackson (per Pro Football Focus).  I do not love any option on the Texans, but I’ll have exposure to DeAndre Hopkins.  The Seahawks have yet to shadow with Richard Sherman, but I can’t confidently say they won’t against Hopkins this week.  If they don’t, Hopkins should see 10+ targets in the right game script for the Texans passing game.  He’s projected to be low owned on a 9 game slate of games, so I think an elite talent like Hopkins should make it on to a roster or two.

Good luck this week, and feel free to reach out with questions/feedback on twitter @EvanRosenberg0.  I would love to hear your thoughts and discuss further. 

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