Divisional Playoffs: Best Bets To Win Against The Spread
The Divisional Playoff round is here, and there are four games to bet on this weekend. With the NFL being down to the last eight teams, all four of the games will be tough to call. Last week my Super Wild Card Weekend Picks went 2-2. Let’s start going through the latest NFL point spreads and see what is predicted for each Divisional Playoff games this weekend.
My Divisional Round Playoff Picks
Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers (-6.5)
The Los Angeles Rams upset the Seahawks on the road in their Wild Card Week game. The Rams running game is now led by rookie running back Cam Akers. The Rams run game was ranked 10th in the NFL, and in last week’s playoff game, the Rams rushed for 169 yards. Cam Akers will need to have a good game for the Rams to pull off another upset. Quarterback Jared Goff has been named starting quarterback, and John Wolford is still out due to injury. The Rams have to have a successful play action game if they will be successful against the Packers defense ranked 7th in the NFL. Goff must step up his game. He will use wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods in the passing game. The rams will need Goff to be the quarterback that they thought they drafted to win this game.
After earning the first seed in the AFC playoffs, the Kansas City Chiefs had a bye in the first round of the playoffs. Running back Aaron Jones is ready to be the workhorse back after a season with only 200 carries in the regular season. Jones had a 1,000 plus yard season and looks to continue his success against the Rams. The Rams run offense is ranked 8th in the NFL, and now they face the 3rd ranked run defense. Even with a good running game, the team leader is quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Aaron Rodgers top target is by far Devonta Adams. The Packers offense is the top scoring team in the NFL partly due to Rodgers and Adams’s connection. The Rams defense is the top ranked defense in the league, for a reason, but Rodgers will look to beat them.
The Rams defense is outstanding, but they face an outstanding offense in the Packers. The key to me will be how successful the Goff and the Rams offense will be. If the Rams offense struggles, there is a chance they put too much pressure on the defense. Rodgers and the Packers will be successful enough to win by a touchdown. MY PICK: Green Bay Packers -6.5.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills (-2.5)
The Baltimore Ravens went into Tennessee and beat the Titans in last week’s playoff game. Giving Lamar Jackson his first ever win in the playoffs. The Ravens have relied on the running game all season, and it will be no different against the Bills. In the Wild Card Week game, along with six other games, the Ravens rushed for more than 200 yards. In last week’s playoff game, Jackson rushed for 136 yards. The Ravens will also need to rely on J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards in the run game on Saturday if they hope to be victorious. The Bills have the 17th ranked run defense and will have their hands full with the Ravens. My concern with the Ravens is in the passing game. The Ravens are the worst team in the NFL in passing offense this season. It’s not their strength, but it is almost impossible to win a Super Bowl with a one dimensional offense. The Bills defense gave up the 6th fewest yards to wide receivers this season. Due to that tight end, Mark Andrews must be more involved in this game.
Josh Allen led the Buffalo Bills to win against the Colts in last week’s playoff game. In the running game, the workhorse will be Devin Singletary after Zach Moss obtained a season ending ankle injury. Singletary will be the main running back except within the five yard line. Moss has been getting the goal line carries in recent weeks, which I believe will go to Allen. They will need to pick their spots against a defense ranked 8th in the NFL against the run. The Bills passing game led by Allen is ranked 3rd in the NFL. A major reason the Bills are doing so well in the passing game this season is the Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley. Diggs led the NFL in regular season receptions with 127. The Ravens are ranked 6th in the NFL against the pass. So Ellen and the passing game will need to be on point against the Ravens if they want to win on Saturday.
If Saturday is a snow game like the forecast calls for, which team has the advantage? It is a draw, the Ravens strength is the run game, but the Bills have played in cold games before. The Ravens will need to throw the ball enough to balance their offense, but I am not sure if they can. Allen will have to lead the Bills offense, something he has had a hard time doing in the playoffs in past seasons. MY PICK: Buffalo Bills -2.5.
Embed from Getty ImagesCleveland Browns vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-10)
The Cleveland Browns beat the Steelers in their Wild Card Week game for the Browns first playoff win since 1994. The Browns were without head coach Kevin Stefanski, but that didn’t hold them up. The running game undoubtedly leads the Browns offense. The browns 3rd ranked run offense includes Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. They will have the advantage with the Chiefs being the 21st ranked run defense. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has played well as of late but hasn’t been consistent enough throughout the season. The passing offense is ranked 24th in the NFL. At this point of the season, the Browns weapons are Jarvis Landry, Rashard Higgins, and Donovan Peoples-Jones. The Chiefs 14th ranked pass defense has to pay attention to Hunt, who should be a major target in the passing game.
After earning the first seed in the AFC playoffs, the Kansas City Chiefs had a bye in the first round of the playoffs. Running back, Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been out since his injury in Week 15 but has a chance to play this weekend. If he can return, he will join a backfield that includes Leveon Bell and Darrell Williams. The Chiefs run game is 16th in the NFL, but they mainly use the run game as a complement to the passing game. But they will have to against the 9th ranked run defense in the league. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes is by far the leader of the Chiefs offense. The Chiefs have players with the 2nd and 8th most receiving yards, respectively, in Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. The Chiefs are the top ranked passing offense in the NFL, and they will need to score a lot of points to beat the Browns. The Browns defense is ranked 22nd against the pass, and the Chiefs will look to take advantage.
This Sunday’s playoff game will be an offensive battle of the Browns running game and the Chiefs passing game. The Chiefs bend but don’t break defense will need to keep the Browns out of the endzone. Mahomes can put up points at rapid speed. I don’t think Mayfield can do the same, but can he do enough to keep his team in the game. MY PICK: Cleveland Brown +10.
Embed from Getty ImagesTampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans (-3)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers struggled to beat the Washington Football Team in the Wild Card Week game. The Buccaneers running back Ronald Jones III is questionable for the playoff game after aggravating his quad injury. If he can’t play, the Buccaneers will rely on Leonard Fournette and Keshawn Vaughn. The Buccaneers will need to be successful against the Saints top five run defense even to have a chance to win. Quarterback Tom Brady must have a good game for the Buccaneers to have any shot to win the game. Wide receivers Antonio Brown, Michael Evans, and Chris Godwin will look to be targeted often in the battle of high powered offenses. In my opinion, the Buccaneers X-factor will be Rob Gronkowski.
The New Orleans Saints dominated the Chicago Bears in their Wild Card Week game. The Saints have been their old selves ever since Drew Brees came back from injury. Running back Alvin Kamara is an all purpose back that makes this team run smoothly. the Buccaneers are the best team in the NFL against the run. However, Kamara is one of the few backs that they will have a hard time slowing down. Quarterback Drew Brees leads a Saints passing offense that is getting hot at the perfect time. Brees likes to spread the ball throughout his receivers. His receivers are Michael Thomas, Emanuel Sanders, Tre’Quan Smith. But due to injuries this year, Kamara led the Saints passing game with 83 receptions and 756 yards.
This game is definitely not lacking experienced quarterbacks. Brady and Brees are two of the most experienced quarterbacks, and they will be major factors on Saturday. But to me, they cancel out each other. The key to me will be the running backs in this matchup. Whatever running game is more successful will have the upper hand. MY PICK: New Orleans Saints -3.
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