Don’t Draft That Guy!
Over the years when prepping for fantasy football drafts, I’ve kind of established some rules, picked up some habits, and in some ways have made a few soft guidelines for myself to follow along the way. And one of them is more like a mantra, words to live by when heading into the draft room. Six simple words. Let him be someone else’s problem.
These are players who carry some red flags, and inevitably their ADP’s should be higher than your comfort zone to begin with. But at some point in the draft you may be faced with the decision to take them if they’re among the best available. Do your homework and the proper research, and you should be able to resist the temptation. Here are a few of those on my list who I’ll look to avoid and why.
Evan Engram burned me big time last year. Not only did I buy into the hype, but I also grew up a Giants fan. Engram delivered with huge performances in weeks one and three (11-116-TD, 6-113-TD), but flamed out with injury problems in the following five games (21-190-1) before getting shut down for the season. I have no trouble prioritizing fantasy teams over sports teams, and this injury bug was far more devastating on my FFL psyche. I always find it hard to trust players who are injury prone. When I see Engram as the top available option on my ranker, I’ll likely opt for a guy like Marvin Jones or Kareem Hunt in that round. The tight end position will be easy enough to fill in a near later round with someone like Tyler Higbee or Noah Fant.
Embed from Getty ImagesJames Conner is another one of these injury prone types I’m going to stay away from in 2020. After what we saw last season, he’s going to need to prove again he can stay on the field. Even with shoddy QB play Pittsburgh got good games from Benny Snell and Jaylen Samuels in Conner’s absence, and they added Anthony McFarland in the 4th round of the draft. Upside and the lure of a return to 2018 form will inevitably have people drafting Conner higher than where I’d want to take him. But I’m perfectly fine with the likes of Raheem Mostert, Melvin Gordon, David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, and Cam Akers all ahead of Conner given the need for a RB in the same round.
Zach Ertz is at that point in his career, picture a roller coaster easing it’s way over the apex of the climb. The scary anticipation of when the drop begins is looking you in the face. Ertz is turning 30 this season, and has averaged just under 110 targets per year in his seven year career. The 5,743 receiving yards equates to a lot of tread, but if father time doesn’t catch up to him in 2020 his heir apparent just might. Dallas Goedert looks poised to make a huge jump, and one of my out on a limb predictions is that he will out-stat Ertz as early as this season. Let someone else draft Ertz as that so called “third best TE” in the league.
Drew Brees soured me from a fantasy perspective in 2018 with the four game run starting in week 12 where his passing yards were 171, 127, 201 and 203 respectively. While his 2019 season was stronger in some regard (TDs went from 2.13 per game to 2.45, with an uptick in PYG), we also saw Sean Payton trotting out Taysom Hill more often on gadget plays. Brees enters this season now 41 years old, and Payton will likely increase the designed snaps under center for Hill throughout the year as New Orleans continues to evaluate his prospects as a possible replacement when the sun sets on Brees’ storied career. Seeing your QB come off the field for gadget snaps in the redzone can be infuriating. Let that be someone else’s aggravation.
Embed from Getty ImagesD’Andre Swift is a tremendous dynasty asset, but won’t be on my radar in redraft formats. First things first, all rookies will be a bit further behind the eight ball to make an immediate fantasy impact due to the pandemic limiting OTAs this offseason. Although Kerryon Johnson’s fantasy value clearly took a hit from the Lions drafting of Swift, KJ is still a big time talent. Factor in the Patriots’ cloth Matt Patricia was cut from, and this backfield has full blown committee written all over it for 2020.
Wrapping up with a few extra quick hits here… I won’t be surprised one bit if Marlon Mack gets phased out of the Indy backfield on the early side of the season, Alshon Jeffery’s foot injury in week 14 looked really bad for a 30 year old, and Antonio Brown is no longer worth rostering. Talk about wasting a roster spot to put perspective on AB, I can’t believe how many dynasty leagues I still see Josh Gordon rostered in when he hasn’t been a difference maker since 2013. That’s six years of you could’ve had someone else in his place.
Happy drafting and remember when it comes down to any of these guys, let him be someone else’s problem.
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