A recurring theme with the 2023 class has been a strong disappointment at the level of the wide receivers. The most common gripe is with the size – or lack thereof – of this upcoming crop. While I agree with the undersized nature of the class, I believe there are many gems to be found in the 2023 pass catchers. Amongst them is former North Carolina Tar Heel, Josh Downs.
Lining up from the slot, Josh Downs broke out as a true sophomore, amassing over 1,300 yards in 2021. While he missed a few games through injury in 2022, Downs was still extremely productive, averaging 93 receiving yards and a touchdown per game in his final college season. Downs wins on the field with excellent route-running, consistently gaining separation in a variety of ways:
Downs possesses tremendous short-area quickness, which he combines effectively with lethal changes of direction. He is able to drop his hips and turn on a dime, making him extremely difficult to stop. Downs backs up his physical attributes with a strong understanding of leverage. He can manipulate defenders with ease on the field; his plays are littered with instances of him being open in acres of space:
#NorthCarolina WR Josh Downs breaking down the defender in the slot.
He runs a mean whip route, huh? It really is fun watching Downs at work; I love the way he uses changes in speed and tempo to unsettle defenders and win routes:
Yes, Downs is a smaller receiver, but the most surprising aspect of his game is his contested catch ability. He boasted a 72.2% success rate in contested catch situations, amongst the highest in the 2023 class last season. Downs is tough and aggressive, and he attacks the ball in the air. With his excellent ball-tracking skills, Downs adds a vertical threat element to his game. This also adds a different way for him to win in the red zone:
Downs certainly has more to his game than meets the eye. He displays remarkable toughness for his frame, and he goes above and beyond to impose himself on the game.
Cons
All that being said, Downs is small and slight. He can be thrown off routes against press coverage, and with the ball in his hands, he usually goes down at the first point of contact. These are valid concerns for NFL teams, and unlike Smith-Njigba or Addison, who have enough in their game to move around the field, Downs will likely feature exclusively from the slot at the next level.
While Downs plays bigger than his size, his small catch radius can limit him in certain situations. With less time and space to work with in the NFL, we could see balls thrown frustratingly out of reach of Downs far too often.
Lastly, Downs understandably lacks impact as a blocker. He may struggle to stay on the field depending on the personnel used, especially with his usage from the slot. Fantasy managers will have to account for reduced snap counts unless he lands on an extremely pass-heavy team.
Summary
Josh Downs is a talented, dynamic slot receiver who thrived at North Carolina. A gifted route-runner, Downs displayed an ability to win in all areas of the field. Impressively, the former Tar Heel played above his size in contested catch situations, showing great hands and ball-tracking technique. He is part of the new generation of wide receivers that prove size isn’t everything in football.
However, managers should be concerned with his fantasy ceiling. Downs will be relegated to a slot role in the NFL, and while he will provide a solid PPR floor, there may not be enough upside to warrant a high rookie draft pick. Still, I could see him retain his vertical threat at the next level, given what he did show in college. Therefore, he will be a good addition to rosters, but managers will need to analyze the situation he lands in to assess his productivity. We may need to wait into Year 2 or 3 until he is a difference-making starter, and managers do need to accept that such status may never come for Downs.
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