Draft Strategy: Five Early-Round Redraft ADP’s That I Love

1.) Travis Kelce (ADP: 16th Overall, TE1)

Why I love it

Last year, Kelce finished as TE1 (18.4 PPG) and 10th in targets per game among all players (9.4). He’s the number one option on a team with the 2018 MVP and a horrendous defense which somehow managed to get worse this offseason.

To top off an already great situation, Tyreek Hill, who finished 16th in targets per game last year (8.6), is unlikely to see the field. I expect Patrick Mahomes to redirect the majority of these lost targets toward his stud tight end.

I see a lot of late-round wide receivers that have the potential to finish with respectful fantasy football numbers. With this in mind, I lean towards drafting Kelce over my first and second round WRs. To me, he is by far the best fantasy football tight end and therefore worth his 16 overall ADP.

The argument against it

The only argument against drafting Kelce would be the fact that you’re putting an early round pick towards a tight end. Yes, this is true. I’ve always been against drafting tight ends before the 5th round. However, Kelce is the anomaly of this rule. He is invaluable to the Chiefs and he will be invaluable to your fantasy team.

Consensus

If Kelce is sitting there at the beginning of the second round and your top running backs are off the board, then you need to pull the trigger on this guy.

2.) Todd Gurley (ADP: 17th Overall, RB10)

Why I love it

There are two simple reasons:

1.) He scored the most fantasy points in 2017.

2.) He scored the most fantasy points in 2018.

With rumors kicking in that the Rams are worried about Gurley’s knee, the top fantasy scorer from 2017 and 2018 is slipping to 17th overall. Even if Gurley does end up losing reps, I expect him to finish at least as a top 10 fantasy running back.

The argument against it

The Rams spent a third-round pick on RB Darrell Henderson. This has created concern amongst fantasy football junkies that the Rams will reduce Gurley’s touches significantly to combat his chronic knee issues. Even if this is true, Gurley is clearly the more talented back and will handle the majority of the workload (think Kamara and Ingram).

I expect the Rams offense to take a step back next year as Bill Belichick taught the NFL how to beat Sean McVay’s offense in Super Bowl LIII. This might hurt Gurley as well, but I think fewer points will create closer games meaning that TG30 will get more snaps in crunch-time.

Consensus

Take Gurley if he’s there in the 2nd round. If you’re that worried about his knee problems you can always handcuff him with Darrell Henderson.

3.) Keenan Allen (ADP: 25th Overall, WR11)

Why I love it

Getting Keenan Allen in the third round could be the steal of the draft. To me, this guy has been a model of PPR consistency. I know 2018 wasn’t Allen’s best season, but he still finished WR12 in PPR formats. He’s on a top 5 offensive unit and should see even more targets in 2019.

The argument against it

There are too many weapons on the offense (?). That’s the only logical explanation for Allen’s current ADP. To combat this argument, let me start by saying that I’ve never liked Hunter Henry. I see him a red zone threat, but nothing more. I don’t like Mike Williams either. He’s another great red zone target but struggles to get separation against cornerbacks. Outside of these two pass catchers, I can’t think of any other receiving weapons (maybe Travis Benjamin?).

The Chargers lost Tyrell Williams to the Raiders in free agency. To me, Williams was the only other route runner who could create separation in the open field. The team appeared to agree with me as they had Tyrell on the field for 76.5% of offensive snaps (2nd most on the team). I expect LAC to lean heavily on Allen outside the red zone giving him a ridiculous amount of receptions in 2019.

Consensus

I see Allen as the clear-cut number one option on a phenomenal offense and a steal at the top of the 3rd round.

4.) Tyler Lockett (ADP: 50th overall, WR21)

Why I love it

Seattle cut Doug Baldwin due to a failed physical and somebody needs to fill the void (5.6 targets per game) he leaves behind. Preferably, the Seahawks need someone fast twitched that can play the slot and get open for Russell Wilson.

Queue Tyler Lockett, the only Seahawks wideout that has been rostered for more than two years. He played 89.6% of Seattle’s snaps in 2019 including 34.7% from the slot. He was also one of the most efficient receivers in the league and should see his production skyrocket with Baldwin gone.

Lockett is currently the 21st WR off the board in PPR drafts. He’s being selected after guys like Kenny Golladay (WR18), Cooper Kupp (WR19), and Calvin Ridley (WR20). I’d take Lockett over each as he, respectively, has a better quarterback, isn’t coming off a torn ACL, and is a legitimate WR1 in his offense (He has the greatest 2018 target share among all returning WRs.)

The argument against it

The Seahawks are a running team. With Chris Carson breaking out in 2018 and Rashaad Penny rostered behind him, Seattle wants to “pound the ball” which takes targets away from their top pass catchers. Yes, I buy that, but he’s still the best receiving option for one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. To go with that, Seahawks defense isn’t what it used to be. They’re mediocre (at best) and just traded their best pass rusher, Frank Clark. I expect them to be playing from behind in 2019, forcing Wilson to feed his best receiver.

Consensus

Tyler Lockett is put in a situation where he ends up being a top 15 wide receiver. I plan to target him in the middle of the 4th round.

5.) D.J. Moore (ADP: 68th Overall, WR28)

Why I love it

Devin Funchess is gone. Greg Olsen is old. I can’t come to terms with Curtis Samuel being a wide receiver. D.J. Moore is an extremely versatile wide receiver. I believe that a combination of hard work, athleticism, and physicality turns Moore into the next Steve Smith.

The argument against it

Moore’s placement on this list is less about his situation and more about my infatuation with his skillset. Do I think the Panthers will abuse him with targets like some of the other names on this list? No. That’s not the type of offense that Norv Turner runs (see here). That being said, Turner clearly turned to his young wideout toward the end of 2018 as Moore was targeted the most of any player not named Christian McCaffrey in weeks 10 through 17 (7.0 per game). I think Moore’s skill set continues forcing Turner to give him the football.

Consensus

D.J.’s route running and ball skills are holding him back from becoming a top 20 WR. With Funchess gone and a few extra reps with the first-team offense, Moore pans out into just that in 2019.

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