Dynasty Buy Low Sell High Players Headed into Week 2
I have always enjoyed fantasy football but dynasty just has its own architecture, which is so satisfying upon completion. Buying low and selling high is just one of many factors that make or break your dynasty football fantasy team. You will experience highs and lows along the way, because trust me you will stumble, as buying low on a player is just as much as a gamble as selling high on another. I will be publishing a weekly buy low sell high article for you dynasty enthusiasts and hope to provide you with the information you need to better equip you for the tough decisions that dynasty football has to offer.
Sell High
RB Nyheim Hines (IND)
Coming into this season, a lot of us expected Nyheim Hines to be more of a fantasy impact player, but no one could have seen an overall RB4 (27.3 points in PPR) finish, just behind Josh Jacobs, Christian McCaffrey, and Ezekiel Elliot. Philip Rivers is known to check down to the running back frequently and he continued that trend with the Colts targeting Hines 8 times. His red-zone usage was just as impressive as he received 4 carries, converting 1 carry for a 12-yard touchdown. As a dynasty, or redraft owner you are excited with his performance (as you should be), however, I consider selling high on him, with Rivers set to be a free agent after this season, the future at the quarterback position with the Colts is currently not on the roster, and this brings major questions marks on his usage after this year if Rivers does not return. Is it possible that the next quarterback does not impact Hines usage and production? Of course, but I rather sell high for proven players whose usage is guaranteed well past just one year.
WR Marvin Jones (DET)
We all know what Marvin Jones is at this point. He is going to have his customary blow up games 20% of his games in a season, and land you his low floor games for the remainder of the season. Why is he on my sell high list? Entering a contract year at age 30, what he or the organization decides to do is anyones guess, and I do not like to put my stock in players with potential movement in their near future (there are exceptions to this logic of course). Without Golladay in the lineup, he was not even the leading receiver in targets, those honors went to rookie WR Quintez Cephus (Read more below). Jones stock may be very inconsistent week to week and before it drops any further, I would at least consider putting him on the trading block in your leagues.
TE Darren Waller (LV)
Derek Carr only threw the ball 30 times against the Panthers and 8 of those passes went to Darren Waller, which is 26.66% of the targets on an offense that is dictated by the run. By comparison, he commanded 22.81% of the targets from last year. Raiders drafted Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards, both of which ran over 35 routes week 1. Considering they are both rookies the Raiders were expected to rely heavily on Waller. Given the talent both rookie wide receivers possess especially Bryan Edwards who is listed as the X receiver on this offense, it is only a matter of time this year that we see Waller’s target share drop and with that his production, which is great for the team but not for fantasy. Think about this, of the tight ends drafted in the top 5 this year, only 2 finished inside the top 12 for Week 1 in fantasy points. You can get more upside from selling Waller at the wide receiver or running back position while he still commands a large number of the targets.
RB Raheem Mostert (SF)
I am going to play devils advocate here on multiple levels. Raheem Mostert had himself a great game, no question about that. Take away the 76-yard reception (a touchdown) and you have to ask yourself, did Mostert really have that great of a game? Averaging 3.7 yards per carry, I cannot say with total confidence that Mostert is truly the back to own in that backfield. It is not as clear cut as you may think once you dive into the numbers. Jerick McKinnon (Bonus buy low) actually played an NFL game, and granted did not get a lot of touches, he did receive the same number of targets as Mostert. I believe more in McKinnon to make a push as the season progresses for more playing time. Just go back and watch his tape from his time with the Vikings two years ago. It’s easy to forget just how good McKinnon is and how well his style of play actually fits this Niners offense. I consider the Niners backfield a dynasty RBBC.
Buy Low
QB Deshaun Watson (HOU)
If you watched Thursday night matchup between the Texans and Chiefs, you are thanking the heavens to have walked away with 24.35 fantasy points. That was one tough game to watch, especially for dynasty owners who invested a high draft capital for him. Owners watching that game saw this offense without DeAndre Hopkins (traded to the Arizona Cardinals in the offseason for David Johnson), realize this offense is significantly different without Hopkins. Watson finished no better than 15th in every passing category for week 1. Players like Gardner Minshew, Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, Mitchell Trubisky and 16 others finished better than Watson. His sack rate of 11.1% of his dropbacks does not help, but Watson has the individual talent to bounce back from this, the caveat being the receivers can stay healthy. Watson’s value is low enough where I consider him to be a bargain to buy right now.
QB Carson Wentz (PHI)
Yes, I am very well aware Wentz lost to a team that has no name, and was sacked 8 times by said team that has no name. Same year same story for Wentz, Eagles are dealing with injuries across the entire offense except at tight end. They had 3 of their 5 starting offensive lineman hurt, so it should not be a surprise that the offensive line struggled to protect Wentz. Not long removed from an MVP caliber season, and signed through 2024, he finished QB10 last year in fantasy, with the exact same scenario handed to him. It is one game, and yes it may potentially be one season of struggle, but in Dynasty you play the long game, and I am doing just that with Wentz.
TE Logan Thomas (WAS)
14, that’s the number of tight ends that caught a touchdown week 1, which is it is going to be easy to overlook Logan Thomas. He led the team in targets (yes even ahead of Terry McLaurin) and everyone’s darling Antonio Gibson. This team with no name, (outside of McLaurin), has no wide receiver threat significant enough to challenge Thomas’s target share as Haskin’s security blanket. He is not Jordan Reed (let’s hope not), but a position which is Russian roulette outside the top 5, you may not have to gamble for much longer if week 1 was a sign of targets to come for Thomas past just this year.
WR Quintez Cephus (DET)
You must be wondering why I’m mentioning someone who frankly did a whole lot of nothing week 1 in my dynasty buy low section. Marvin Jones (as mentioned above) is in his final year of his deal and was out-targeted by Cephus. All while Kenny Golladay was out. You might be saying, once Golladay is back, Cephus will be relegated to the third option on this offense or fourth based on how you value Hockenson. Dynasty is not always about immediate production, sometimes you buy low on a player to stash on your bench till the right opportunity presents itself. He is not going to cost you a lot, and considering he was just one of 12 wide receivers to see a minimum of 10 targets.
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