Dynasty Buy-Low Sleepers (Fantasy Football)

Dynasty Buy-Low Sleepers

There are very few, if any, true sleepers in fantasy football anymore. The game has become so saturated with media coverage that true fantasy fans know the backup to the backup’s backup. I play in leagues that have taxi squads, which in effect are “practice” squad players for fantasy football. These are guys that aren’t quite ready to take up a valuable roster spot, so you can stash that player on your taxi squad until he is ready for the primetime. This is a long-winded way of saying, “Sleepers are dead”.

Yes, true sleepers are no more, but there are still some chances in Dynasty to buy-low on a player that could have a breakout season, be it this year or next, and the following three players are guys I’m trying to buy as much stock in as I can…

WR Chad Williams (ARI)

In Arizona, Larry Fitzgerald is the No. 1 WR and David Johnson is the No. 1 RB, and those may be the only sure things in this Arizona offense. The QB figures to be Sam Bradford but with his injury history and the draft capital invested in rookie QB Josh Rosen, it could be Rosen’s job sooner rather than later. The Cardinals also invested a second-round pick in WR Christian Kirk who will be Williams’ main competition for the No. 2 WR spot opposite Fitz, and one of the more intriguing camp battles to watch in August.

Williams is going into his second-year after being drafted in the third-round last season. Concerns over his conditioning coming into the 2017 season — and ultimately struggling to learn the playbook — derailed his rookie season before it even started. He appeared in six games, had seven targets three receptions and 31 yards — not exactly what you’re looking for from a third-round rookie.

That’s all behind him now. He has a new coaching staff and a new opportunity to prove himself. He freely admits that he was overwhelmed by the playbook and the mental part of the game last season, but to combat that, he went to work out with former Bengals WR Chad “Ochocinco” Johnson to help him get his “mental right.”

“He actually took my mind to another level,” Williams said. “He prepped my mind more than he prepped my feet. It was me and Chad going at each other every day.”

He is coming into the 2018 season with an entirely new mindset and he doesn’t have much competition outside of Kirk to secure a role in this offense. Even in a worst-case scenario, Williams would secure the No. 3 position and would play on the outside in three-wide sets — with Fitzgerlad moving into the slot. Mike McCoy is the new offensive coordinator in Arizona after having the same role in Denver last year. With McCoy as the OC in Denver, the Broncos ran 11-personnel (3-wide receivers) 66.1 percent of the time — the ninth-highest percentage in the league.

The presence of all-world RB David Johnson may lower that percentage a little, but I still expect them to be in the top half of the league in 11-personnel as Johnson is a very good receiver out of the backfield. Williams, even as a No. 3 WR, would benefit from an offense that lines up in 3-wide sets that often and would be on the field 60-plus percent of the time. Currently WR96 on FantasyPros, Williams can be had for a bag of potato chips and a coke, a small price to pay for a guy that could have a breakout season.

RB Elijah McGuire (NYJ)

McGuire was put on the fantasy map in a Week 4 game against the Jaguars last season when he took a third-quarter carry and went 69-yards for a touchdown. He did little else the rest of the season as he was playing behind veterans Matt Forte and Bilal Powell.

Fast forward to 2018.

His situation hasn’t gotten any better as the Jets signed former Browns RB Isaiah Crowell this offseason and Powell, as of July 16th, is still on the roster. So, why do I have him as a buy-low you ask? Easy, I don’t expect Powell to be on the roster by Week 1. Powell is due $4-million and his cap hit is $4.8-million this season. That $4.8-million cap hit ranks as the 10th highest cap number among all RBs in the NFL — higher than guys like Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon and Christian McCaffery. If the Jets were to cut him, there is only $883k in dead money.

Meanwhile, McGuire’s cap hit is a mere $600k, give or take, and if he can show the Jets’ brass that he can handle the receiving back role, he is a much cheaper option over Powell — making Powell expendable.

McGuire has received high praise this offseason from one of the Jets coaches, RBs coach Stump Mitchell had this to say about McGuire,

“Eli looks fantastic to be perfectly honest. I’ll tell you who I see Eli as — and he is in the hall of fame. Eli has the skill set to be a Ladainian Tomlinson if he was given that opportunity”

High praise indeed. I’m not willing to go as far as to say McGuire is the next Tomlinson, or that he is even the next starting RB for the Jets, but what he is is a cheaper receiving RB to Powell, on a team that will be playing from behind and passing a lot in 2018. As the current RB73 on FantasyPros, much like the Jets, you won’t have to invest much in him.

RB Kenneth Dixon (BAL)

Dixon had a promising — if unspectacular — rookie season that created a little buzz going into 2017. That was before he tore his meniscus to end his season before it ever started. By all accounts, however, he comes into this season fully healthy and despite playing behind incumbent starter Alex Collins, there is reason to believe that Dixon can carve out a nice role that could lead to some fantasy success in 2018.

Going back to 2016, Dixon averaged only 4.3 yards per carry on the season, however, from Week 9 on he averaged a full yard per carry more as his touches increased over the second half, suggesting he was starting to figure things out. This year’s Ravens team doesn’t look good on paper, and while they may want to grind it out on the ground, if their defense can’t keep them in it, they may have to resort to passing the ball more often then they would like. If Dixon were to secure the passing down RB role in this offense, that extra passing would greatly benefit him in PPR leagues.

Looking at this offense as a whole, there isn’t much that impresses you. Their wide receivers are a whos who of cast-off wide receivers with Michael Crabtree, John Brown and Willie Snead expected to be their top three guys, “Hey, Baltimore, 2015 called and they want their wide receivers back.”

Their offensive line is ranked 24th by PFF heading into 2018, and their tight ends are both rookies with a ton of upside but may struggle in Year 1. All of this benefits Dixon as a pass catching RB out of the backfield.

Dixon averaged 3.4 targets per game in 2016 and that number should be even higher in 2018 with the lack of receiving options for QB Joe Flacco. Alex Collins was non-existent in the passing game last season as he had a paltry 23 receptions for 187 yards. A combination of Danny Woodhead and Javorius Allen held down the passing down role in 2017, with Woodhead getting 39 targets and Allen 60. One might think by looking at those numbers that the Ravens used two RBs for their passing downs, but, in fact, Woodhead only played in eight games, and the majority of Allen’s targets came in the games Woodhead did not play.

A reasonable expectation would be that whoever lands the passing down role between Dixon and Allen would see the bulk of those targets. Just for comparative purposes, if those combined 99 targets went to one single back in 2017, it would have ranked as the fourth most targets for a running back behind only Christian McCaffery (113), Le’Veon Bell (106) and Alvin Kamara (101). Currently being drafted in dynasty startups as RB63 according to FantasyPros, the upside is there for Dixon to vastly outplay his ADP.

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