Dynasty Value Picks (#FantasyFootball)
Every league I play in is a dynasty format and most of those leagues are 16 teams. That means in most of my leagues have around 100 running backs and 100 wide receivers rostered. Even every starting QB and around 50 tight ends are rostered as well. So to be successful in these leagues you have to identify value in guys that in most 12 team leagues might not even get drafted.
Once you get past the obvious top players your focus shifts from the best player to best value. In this article, I am going to talk about one player from each skill position that you can get later in your draft and should easily outproduce their draft value.
Ronald Jones II – FantasyPros Dynasty Rank 39th RB 121st Overall
RoJo is the perfect example of what is wrong with rookie hype or rookie fever or whatever you want to call it. The Bucs went out and got Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski and everyone got excited for the Bucs offensive players including RoJo. Then the Bucs went and drafted Ke’Shawn Vaughn and all of a sudden RoJo started free-falling in the ranks. Before the addition of Vaughn, the Bucs backfield was RoJo and Dare Ogunbowale. So, of course, the Bucs were going to add some depth to the backfield. No team is going into a season with just two running backs and one of them is really just a 3rd down guy at best.
RoJo will be the number one back in Tampa and should see close to 200 carries if not more. Vaughn will get his share of carries too, he might even see upwards of 170 carries. With Brady at quarterback, I think the Bucs will run more than they did last year. Brady will at least turn the ball over less which means longer drives and less having to come from behind. All that translates to more running back usage. Even if RoJo only gets those 25 additional carries for 100 more yards and 1 more touchdown over last year’s numbers that will put him right into RB2 status even in 12 team leagues. I will take strong RB2 potential from a guy I can get in the 10th round any day.
Jamies Winston – FantasyPros Dynasty Rank 28th QB 196th Overall
This one is a little more of a gamble than the others in this article. Think back to the year 2006 when the Saints signed a free agent quarterback that had been underachieving on his current team for 5 years. That quarterbacks name was Drew Brees. We all know what Brees has done since joining the Saints in 2006, a Hall of Fame career. No, I am not suggesting Sean Payton is going to turn Jameis Winston into a Hall of Famer. But look at the similarities. Winston struggles for four years with the team that drafts him. He now goes to the Saints where he can sit for a year and absorb all the knowledge Coach Payton and Brees can offer. Could there be a better opportunity for a guy with all the talent that Winston has?
It is assumed that this is Bree’s last season, but that does not mean Winston is the perceived heir to the starting job next year. He did only sign a one year contract with the Saints. I know Winston threw 30 picks last season, but maybe some time with coach Payton and Brees, and eye surgery, might help Winston cut down those interceptions. Let’s not forget despite throwing those 30 picks Winston was still a top ten quarterback with over 5,100 passing yards and 33 touchdowns. If he cuts those interceptions in half he becomes a top-five quarterback. If Winston can progress and impress enough on the practice field and in the film room maybe he earns a prove-it contract with the Saints and we can finally see the potential he has to offer. The bottom line is it might take a year for this buy low to bear fruit, but if you have the roster space to spare I think it would be well worth the spot to stash Winston and see what happens next year.
Blake Jarwin – FantasyPros Dynasty Rank 23nd TE 218th Overall
Jason Witten is finally gone and should not be back. I say should because its the Raiders and Cowboys so you just never know for sure. All that aside the Cowboys did not address the tight end position in the draft or in free agency. The picture is clear Jarwin is the number 1 tight end in Dallas. Witten’s slash line last year was 63/529/4 which was good enough to be a low TE1 even in 12 team leagues. Jarwin who is virtually a physical clone of Witten, but much faster than him, should be able to achieve similar if not better numbers.
I know many people are concerned with the first-round pick of CeeDee Lamb cutting into Jarwin’s ceiling, but the Cowboys let Randall Cobb leave with his slash of 55/828/3 along with Witten. So between Cobb and Witten the Cowboys lost 118 receptions. Even if Lamb gets 60 of them, which is pretty good for a rookie on a team that already has two established wide receivers, that leaves almost 60 for Jarwin. Now I know Jarwin won’t get all 60 but let’s give him 35 of them. Jarwin is now looking at 66 receptions and with defenses focused on guys like Amari Cooper and Ezekiel Elliot, Jarwin should have plenty of room to use his speed to produce at least 700 yards and six touchdowns in the process. In full point PPR, you are looking at a top ten tight end potential here. Not bad for a guy ranked 32nd among tight ends and 218th overall.
WR Russell Gage – FantasyPros Dynasty Rank 111th WR 271st Overall
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Since the start of last season, the Falcons have parted ways with Austin Hooper, Devonta Freeman, Mohamed Sanu (traded midseason), and Justin Hardy, all of which accounted for 186 receptions. During the draft, the Falcons did not draft a single skill position player. In free agency however they did bring in Todd Gurley to replace Freeman, Hayden Hurst to replace Hooper and former first-round bust Laquon Treadwell. I do not see Gurley being used in the passing game the way Freeman was, Hurst only has 43 career receptions so to think he replaces Hooper’s numbers immediately might be a stretch, and Treadwell I think was more addition for depth only.
So it is entirely reasonable to think the Gage can snag 35 of those 186 lost receptions. Add that to last year’s numbers and now he has 80 receptions. Let’s add 350 yards and just 1 touchdown to go with those 35 extra receptions and now Gage has a slash line of 80/750/2. In full point PPR leagues Gage would put up 167 points which would place him right around 40th in WR rankings. I know being the 40th best wide receiver does not seem all that great but FantasyPros currently ranks him in dynasty at the 111th best WR. So the guy that is basically going undrafted could easily be a WR4 in 12 team leagues and WR3 in 16 team leagues.
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