Eric Gray Could Be a Big Value at RB in Your Rookie Drafts
Eric Gray
Oklahoma – Running Back – 5’9 1/2″ 207 lbs.
2022 Stats: (rushing) 213 att 1,366 yds 6.4 ypc 11 td; (receiving) 33 rec 229 yds 6.9 ypr 0 td
Pros
Eric Gray seems like he has been on the devy radar for a decade. Now he is finally making it to the NFL. He went through a transfer and a coaching change and finished well in 2022. In my opinion, he is being consistently undervalued in rookie mock drafts.
Gray won’t wow you with any one trait, but he is a very solid, well-rounded running back prospect who does everything effectively enough to be a reliable producer. In that regard, he is like Zach Charbonnet, just with a lower ceiling. He shows good vision, accelerates well downfield into the second level, and has the necessary footwork and lateral agility to make defenders miss. Gray does fine between the tackles as well as on outside runs. He is an effective and productive receiver, which raises his PPR floor for us in dynasty fantasy football.
From an analytics perspective, Gray’s profile has some positives. His weight and 30.6 BMI check the size box, and his estimated 40-yard dash time of 4.57 would cross the 4.60 threshold. He had elite (for a running back) team receptions percentages in year 2 (16.8%) and year 4 (13.15%). Gray’s RYOE (149.1) and RYOE/att (0.8) in year 4 crossed desired thresholds, and his max dominator rating of 29% (year 2) crossed the 22% threshold (as would his year 4 mark of 23%). (numbers per Jay Stein)
Cons
Gray is an older prospect; he’s 23 and will be 24 in November. That can hurt his draft stock. Gray’s lack of elite athleticism will also push him down some draft boards. He has quickness, but even at his size, you’d want him to be faster than he is.
The 2023 running back class is deep with players who can be producers at a fantasy level of RB2/3, and Gray is one of them. That is the definition of “solid, if unspectacular.”
From an analytics perspective, Gray has some blemishes in his profile. As noted, he would not check any age boxes, including the early declare box. Additionally, Gray would need to run a good bit faster in his official 40-yard dash to produce the type of speed score and RAS we want to see. His yards per team play never hit “green” marks on the spreadsheet, and his career average of 5.6 yards per attempt falls short of the 6.0 threshold. Gray’s expected draft capital of round 4 would not check our box for rounds 1 to 3. (numbers per Jay Stein)
Summary
Eric Gray is a veteran productive running back prospect who is flying under the radar because he is not a sexy, exciting one. His 2022 season, though, showed he thrived after Lincoln Riley left Oklahoma. According to PFF, his stats for that season included 3.43 yards after contact per attempt (yco/att), 58 missed tackles forced, and 1.03 y/rr. They gave him grades of 92.4 for running, 90.6 for offense, and 96.2 for elusiveness. According to Jay Stein, all of these numbers were top 20 for FBS backs with at least 172 rushing attempts that year.
Currently, Gray is still projected as a 5th-round pick on NFL Mock Draft Database. In the 2023 NFL, I don’t think of the dreaded “day 3 running back” the same way I used to, and a 5th seems low for him, but it does make him a potential value pick for you in rookie drafts. He will have PPR upside as a committee back/complementary back and can be at least serviceable for a time should a lead back in front of him get injured.
Given team needs and Gray’s expected draft capital, some landing spots that make sense are: the Texans (105th and 139th overall), Cardinals (97th and 106th), Colts (107th and 141st), Raiders (110th and 144th), Panthers (115th and 133rd), and Giants (129th). Should the Cowboys (130th), who just franchise tagged Tony Pollard, move on from Ezekiel Elliott, or if the Bengals (132nd) cut ties with Joe Mixon, they could also be in the mix.
Ideal Role: an NFL team’s complementary, pass-catching back
2023 Dynasty Rookie Draft Projection: early 3rd to early 4th round
Player Comp: a lighter Lamar Miller, Miles Sanders if they threw him more passes, Aaron Jones
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