What’s up everyone, week 3 is in the books! Unlike my fantasy league success, my DFS success has been on the brighter side of things. We saw Seattle beat the Dallas Cowboys in a shootout, Giants and Jets completely look like a blunder of a team and The Falcons blow ANOTHER 4TH QUARTER lead. I hope my week 4 Fan Duel values find you luck and wins you money! Don’t forget my GUT FEELING PLAYER this week. As always, we only play milli makers here!
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Week 3 Gut Feeling Player: Miles Sanders.
Miles Sanders finished as the weeks RB21 in .5 PPR (20th in full) so I will go ahead and give myself a win for my week 3 GUT FEELING PLAYER. Sure Sanders barely returned 2x value but if you had him in your lineups he didn’t hurt you. In fact, we turned out to be a great cash play and less of a tournament play.
Gut Feeling Play Record: 2-1.
QUARTERBACKS
Ryan Fitzpatrick (vs SEA), $7,100
For the second week in a row I am taking the QB going up against the Seattle Seahawks, Mr. Fitzmagic himself. Ryan Fitzpatrick has put together a 2 week stretch of 24+ points including a very impressive 328 yards and 2 touchdown performance against a stingy Buffalo defense in week 2. He then turned around on a short week, and put up 160 passing yards, 38 rushing yards with a total of 3 touchdowns. Fitzpatrick is averaging a hair under 23 yards per game on an average of 5 carries. Lets look at some factors that has the arrow pointing up for Fitzmagic this week, Seattle has to travel all the way to Miami (probably the longest road trip in all of football), Seattle has won more games than any other team in the NFL the past two years by 1 score; and Seattle has given up an average of 22 points per game on the road the last 2 years. This is going to be more of a shootout than people think.
Running Backs
Darryl Henderson Jr. (vs NYG), $6,400.
I actually think Henderson Jr. is not going to be as much of a chalk play as people are leading on. He has dominated the Rams backfield for 2 straight weeks and with Cam Akers set to miss another week, Darryl Henderson Jr. is set to tear up a Giants defense that just allowed a 49ers backfield to combine for a total of 35.6 points, good enough to be the RB2 of the week. McKinnon and Wilson actually didn’t rush for much but they still were able to find the endzones on a couple of untouched plays. Since being the guy, Henderson has averaged 18.8 FanDuel fantasy points and has found the endzone in back to back weeks. Henderson will return 2.5x value this week as that seems to be his floor, currently.
Kenyan Drake (@ Car), $7,000
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Drake has not looked good this year at all and quite frankly, if this were a buy low article, he’d still be here. Drake has one thing I love to look for in not only redraft leagues, but DFS, and that’s tier 3 or 4 running backs who get tier 1 volume; Drake has had nothing but that. Averaging 18 carries per game, roughly 2 targets and totaling about 80 yards from scrimmage; Drake’s problem has been just not getting into the endzone. But going up against a Panthers defense that continues to get gashed by running backs, having allowed a top5 running back in now 3 straight weeks; I suggest riding that wave. Drake is lowkey this week because of the touchdown regression, but I fully expect him to find the endzone this week with the possibility of scoring twice; increasing his ceiling to 4x value, that’s a return Wall Street investors dream of.
WIDE RECEIVER
Odell Beckham Jr. (@DAL) – $6,600
OBJ is pretty much going to flirt with WR2 numbers the rest of the year. But, throughout the season, he will find himself in this exact scenario where the matchup is not only favorable but a game that has an expected o/u of 55 points! The Dallas Cowboys have been nothing short of a disappointment on the defensive end. Week 1, against the Rams, The Cowboys allowed Robert Woods to finish as the WR20. HOWEVER, “America’s Team” has allowed the WIDE RECEIVER 1 in back to back weeks; Ridley in week 2 and Lockett in Week 3. In addition to that, they have allowed both Russell Gage(week2) and DK Metcalf(week3) to still finish as wide receiver two’s on the weeks their counterparts finished a top of the fantasy WR position. Both Dallas and Cleveland are at the bottom third in the NFL when it comes to pass defense and despite the success The Browns will have running the ball; they’ll need Baker to throw the ball more than 23 times this game in order to have a chance at winning.
TIGHT END
Darren Waller (vs BUF) – $6,700
Darren Waller had a complete blunder in week 2 finishing with 2 catches on 4 targets for 9 yards. The Raiders looked lost on offense in Foxboro against a Bill Belichick led defense. The Buffalo Bills are stout against the run and Tre’davious White is a top outside corner in the league and despite Jordan Poyer is playing great at the safety position but that hasn’t translated well to guarding the TE position as the Bills allow the 10th most points to the position including a 23 fantasy point performance from Gesicki back in week 2. Waller’s price is super rich but he warrants it with the matchup. At $900 cheaper than Kelce and $700 cheaper than Andrews, Waller should finish at a better value than them when its all said a done with a 2x value floor.
GUT FEELING PLAYER
Will Fuller (vs MIN) – $6,100
I wrote about Fuller last week as a solid value play and he showed some prowess, following that week 2 donut, and came through with 13.4 Fan Duel points. Fuller not only has an extremely better matchup this week, but the Texans showed that they had some sort of pulse offensively. The Minnesota Vikings are not the same defensive identity team they’ve been in recent years. Between weeks 1 and 3, the Vikings have allowed a lot of deep threat wide receivers like MVS and Kalif Raymond to show out and have let wide receivers in general run all over them as they have allowed the 3rd most points to the position this year. Team’s wide receiver 1 have done damage against the Vikings, and being Houston’s defense is no better, and a 53.5 point over/under, The Vikings might find themselves scoring a ton too. Fuller will return 4x value this week and is my GUT FEELING PLAY!
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