FOOTBALL IS BACK! What’s up everyone, with the first football Sunday of the year approaching, fantasy football drafts being completed and beers getting a nice brisk in the fridge, please remember, Daily Fantasy Sports is gambling, so please do it responsibly. This week and the 16 weeks that follow, I will be giving YOU, my favorite value picks on Fan Duels MAIN SLATE including my “Gut feeling player” of the week.
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QUARTERBACKS
Carson Wentz, (@ Washington) – $7,700
Despite adding Chase Young with the 2nd overall pick in the NFL draft this year, The Washington Football team did not do anything to improve their secondary that allowed 35 passing touchdowns last season. Washington allowed the 10th most points to the position last year, and that is including two 20+ point performances from Wentz. In last years season opener, Washington traveled to Philly, in which they allowed Wentz to throw for 313 yards and 3 touchdowns. At his price, Wentz is the 6th highest priced QB, so he can very well finish top 3 at the position. Plus, he’s a favorite of mine for 2020.
Mitchell Trubisky, (@ Detroit) – $6,900
As much as it hurts you to read his name, it hurts me to make the argument. Year 3 under coach Nagy, Foles looming in the shadows, potential contract year and job is on the line; if there is one player in the NFL who needs a great week 1, its Mitchy-T. Last year, despite what is said about the guy, he showed up when playing division rival, The Detroit Lions, scoring an average of 22.32 fantasy points in last year’s matchup’;s. If you want to go even further back, he scored 41 points in the one game against them in 2018. Detroit gave up the 7th most points to the position last year and made a lateral move by letting Darius Slay go this off-season but adding rookie Jeff Okudah. If David Montgomery is ruled out, I look to Mitchell executing more designed runs and slinging the ball around a bit more. His price makes risking it, that much more.
RUNNING BACK
Josh Jacobs, (@ Car) – $8,200
The start to an MVP campaign starts Sunday for Josh Jacobs. Like many, I am extremely high on Jacobs this season and he starts with a juicy matchup against a Carolina team that allowed the most points to the running back position last year. The Panthers did well in the NFL draft adding DT Derrick Brown to go along with Kuwann Short, but between losing James Bradberry in free agency and Luke Kuechly to retirement, they have minimal talent on that side of the ball. The Raiders offensive line is going to improve, as they did in 2019, and we know Gruden likes a work horse. Jacobs averaged 19 carries per game last year and should be expected to not only carry the ball a ton this game, but see some passing work as well, as Las Vegas is sending out two starting rookie WR’s.
James White, (vs Mia) – $5,300
The Patriots are hurting at running back to start the season with training camp breakout Damien Harris on IR, Sony Michel on a snap count due to surgery done back in May and Rex Burkhead, well, being Rex Burkhead. James White could very well be the guy to lead that backfield in the early goings. We don’t know what to expect out of Cam Newton, but what we do know is that James White is probably this teams 3rd option in the passing game with Edelman and Harry (who I’m predicting to ball out this year) ahead of him. Sprinkle in some extra rushing attempts and you have a low RB2/high RB3 guy that will return 3x value.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Calvin Ridley, (vs Sea) – $6,600
I am pivoting at the WR position at least for week 1 and I am trying to get guys who have a rapport with their quarterbacks. After watching Deshaun Watson and the Texans struggle to get their Wideouts the ball, it may point to a correlation of no preseason. Ridley does not have that issue with Matt Ryan at quarterback and going into year three. Ridley had 2 of his best games last year when Austin Hooper was out during weeks 11-12 where Ridley combined for a total of 21 targets, 14 receptions, 228 yards and 2 touchdowns. What is even more impressive is that those weeks with Hooper out, backup tight end Jaeden Graham was still utilized in the offense carrying an above average DVOA at the position, he just didn’t produce. I like Hayden Hurst but not to start the season as QB Matt Ryan still has not come around to him. Ridley will be the 2nd option on this team and could lead them in touchdowns this season. He has 17 in his first two years compared to Julio’s 14 the past two seasons.
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GUT FEELING PLAYER
Dallas Goedert, (@ Was) – $5,200
Its inevitable that Goedert breaks out this season. Between being the team’s 2nd best receiving option and one of the few healthy weapons, Wentz and the Eagles will run and SHOULD run more 2 TE’s in week 1. In 2019 the Eagles ran 12 personnel on 608 plays last year, and that number is daunting because it perfectly correlates how Ertz finished as the TE4 last year while Goedert finished as the TE10. Goedert’s price is a bargain now and should rise pending a week 1 breakout. You might want to check your waiver wires; he may still be there. Dallas Goedert is my GUT FEELING PLAY of the week for DFS.
More Value Plays:
Gardner Minshew II, (vs. Colts) – $6,700
Fournette is out of town and Armstead is hurt. The Jags will be led by a Chris Thompson backfield and a weak defense. Jacksonville throws the ball a ton in week 1.
Terry McLaurin, (vs Phi) – $6,500
Question marks with McKissic and Gibson in the backfield and no clear cut #2 option, Scary Terry picks up right where he left off.
Mike Gesicki, (@ NE) – $5,400
Cook, Gronk and Hooper are all priced higher than Gesicki in week 1; that makes him an extreme value. If Fitzpatrick is on his game, Gesicki is the play. Patriots took a few hits with opt outs at the SS and LB positions; they will have issues guarding the Tight End position all season.
Chris Herndon, (@ Buf) – $4,800
Its put up or shut up time for the promising Jets tight end. He is healthy and has a rapport with Sam Darnold; plus, rookie WR Denzel Mims is ruled out for Sunday.
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