What’s up everyone, with week 1 in the rearview mirror, I hope you found my plays not only useful for DFS purposes, but helpful when making some tough league lineup decisions. Week 1 brought us many surprises, and unfortunately, injuries. Robby Anderson and Jamison Crowder are top 10 wide receivers, Big Ben out-rushed Saquon Barkley and Stephen Gostkowski went from the most accurate kicker in NFL history to, well, no longer the most accurate. Week 2 should add some MORE clarity as we get ready to win some money with my FanDuel values. As always, we only play milli makers here!
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Week 1 Gut Feeling Player: Dallas Goedert.
Dallas Goedert was my week 1 GUT FEELING PLAYER of the week. He finished as the tight end two for week 1 only behind Mark Andrews. At his cost, Goedert was a win for week1. Remember, my gut feeling play of the week is just someone I just LOVE for the week, regardless of matchup, history, or skills.
Gut Feeling Play Record: 1-0.
Quarterbacks
Embed from Getty ImagesMatthew Stafford, (@ GB) – $7,200.
Stafford is a great value this week as he goes up against a Green Bay Packers defense, that just allowed Kirk Cousins to throw for 259 yards and 2 touchdowns on only 25 attempts. It’s safe to say that Matthew Stafford had to shake off some rust as he only completed 57% of his passes in week 1. Stafford has thrown for more than two touchdowns vs Green Bay in only 5 of the 18 games he has played against them. However, in their last 5 meetings, he has 9 touchdowns and 0 interceptions and has averaged 280 passing yards. Just based off averages, Stafford’s floor this week should be 20 points, which is essentially what Kirk Cousins did last week. Add the fact that Detroit’s secondary is ailing injury after injury, Stafford can very well exceed his overall projection and bring in great value as the 14th most expensive quarterback.
Dak Prescott, (vs ATL) – $8,300.
Dak Prescott will be the chalk play of the week. Much like he was last year, I believe Dak’s floor in week 2 is the QB2 only behind Lamar Jackson. Dak threw for 266 yards and one touchdown in last week’s lost to the Rams. He also ran for 30 yards and had a long ball completion called back on a bogus OPI call (and I am a Giants fan saying this) that would’ve led to overtime and even more opportunity. The Atlanta Falcons did not start the year on the right foot, as they continue to be a QB favorite matchup, allowing Russell Wilson to finish as the weeks #1 fantasy football quarterback. CeeDee Lamb looked great in his debut, Michael Gallup is possibly the perfect stack and Amari Cooper dominated the 4th quarter in week 1. I expect Kellen Moore to allow Dak to cook this week.
Running Back
Ronald Jones Jr., (vs. Car) – $5,900
Week 1 felt more like Rojo week than any other week in 2019. In a Tom Brady led offense, Ronald Jones Jr. had 17 carries for 66 yards (3.88 YPC) with only 2 receptions and 16 yards but, and he out touched Leonard Fournette by 13. The Carolina Panthers, like I stated in week 1, are going to have a bad defense this year. Josh Jacobs rushed for 97 yards, 3 touchdowns and even added 4 receptions for 46 yards; there is no reason why Ronald Jones Jr. and the Tom Brady led Bucs can’t score 35+ on this team in week 2. I look for Rojo to be a top10 running back this week with major cash play appeal (bonus thought) as he is going to be, at the very least, 30% owned; that tells a lot.
Wide Receivers
Embed from Getty ImagesAmari Cooper, (vs ATL) – $7,000
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Nope! Not Michael Gallup! If I had to play one of these Dallas wide receivers to stack with Dak, I can’t help but visualize the disrespect of Amari Cooper’s pricing; which sits at the 12th most expensive wide receiver in the main slate for FanDuel. Amari Copper started right where he left off in 2019, finishing week 1 with 14 targets, 10 receptions and 81 yards. Cooper received 6 receptions and 48 yards in the 4th quarter last week, which tells me, that when its crunch time or when Dak needs to put together a drive, Cooper is his guy. Cooper will not fumble this week, and he will score this week, multiple times. He is a great value stack this week, where a lot of plays will feature Gallup and Lamb at cheaper cost.
Marquise Brown, (@ Hou) – $6,200
By no means did Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs passing game destroy Houston in week 1. It did however, look like the Chiefs couldn’t be stopped as both Hill and Watkins scored touchdowns. I expect a similar productive day out of Marquise Brown for the Baltimore Ravens. Skill set wise, Marquise Brown is as similar of a wide receiver as those Chiefs players as anyone else in the league. The only difference is that Marquise Brown doesn’t have any other wide out on his team taking targets away. Despite Willie Snead getting the touchdown last week, Brown looked like the clear WR1 in Baltimore. He accounted for 35.50% of the teams total receiving yards and tied with Mark Andrews in leading the team in both targets and receptions. Brown is priced as the 26th most expensive wide out this week, that’s WR3 range. Those of you anticipating that 2019 week 1 Marquise Brown breakout, will get that in week 2.
Tight End
Hunter Henry, (@LAC) – $6,100
Last week was a good start to the season for Hunter Henry. The injury plagued tight end hopes to continue his early success in what looked like a very limited offense last week against Cincinnati. Henry led the Chargers in both receptions and yards but was tied 2nd with 8 targets. Aside from the chalk plays at the position this week, Henry is priced around other great options like Engram, Higbee and Hurst, but I feel like he is much safer than all those guys. Higbee, for me personally, is still hard for me to get around to, Hurst ran the most routes at the tight end position but it didn’t equate to much and Engram I expect a MUCH better week 2 and is probably worth the $100 savings. But Henry is in a great spot to return 2.5x value where he in linked to an offense where he played the 2nd most snaps led by a quarterback who favors the tight end position. The Chargers will be playing catchup all evening in a game I expect the over, 47.5, to hit.
GUT FEELING PLAYER
Saquon Barkley, (@ Chi) – $9,000
It could be my Giants fandom coming in, or it could be my gut telling me Barkley will not, by any means, replicate what he did in week one with 15 carries for 6 yards. Barkley faces a Chicago defense that allowed ageless Adrian Peterson to rush for 93 yards on 14 carries. The Detroit backfield did decent in the passing game as well and would have been better had D’Andre Swift caught the game winning touchdown. Barkley is EXPENSIVE, but will pay dividends this week. He has a decent history against Chicago averaging 4.5 YPC in the 2 games against them
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