Fantasy Football: 3s a Crowd – Packers RBs

3’s a crowd: that’s the expression right? Ok, maybe it is actually 3 is company, but in fantasy football, sometimes 3 can be 2 crowded (too crowded I know, but let me have some fun with numb3rs). With several positional committees popping up all over the NFL, it is important to look at which players can emerge from those situations and have productive fantasy seasons in 2018.

In this edition of 3’s a Crowd, we will look at the RBs from the Green Bay Packers. The foundation for this position group was set last season. After letting Eddie Lacy and James Starks walk as free-agents, the Packers transitioned one of their WRs to RB full-time and also drafted 3 RBs in the 2017 rookie draft. With several capable bodies to serve in the backfield, we are trying to figure out which one, if any, can be a valuable fantasy asset for 2018. We will look at the main 3 candidates in Green Bay.

Profiles

Aaron Jones | 2^nd season

Jones was drafted by the Packers, along with 2 other RBs, as part of the team’s 2017 rookie class. He was the first RB to break out after week 1 starter Ty Montgomery suffered an injury. Jones led the backfield from weeks 4- 7 but then lost carries as the season wore on. He will be suspended for the first two weeks of the 2018 season for violating the league’s substance abuse policy.

Ty Montgomery | 4^th season

Montgomery was originally a WR when he came out of college. During the 2016 season, when injuries rattled the Packers RB corps, he made the switch to help out with a position that he played in high school. He had some strong performances in 2016 leading as well as in 2017 when he transitioned full-time to RB.

Jamaal Williams | 2^nd season

Williams was the first RB the Packers selected in the 2017 rookie draft, 48 spots before fellow NFL freshman Aaron Jones. Williams led the backfield from week 10 on, and was productive with the heavy workload. He showed his capacities in all facets of the game (running, receiving, pass protection).

From Lead Back to Committee

Mike McCarthy has already said that the Packers will employ a running back committee in 2018. This would be a stark contrast to 2017 when most games had one RB dominate playing time. To begin the season, Ty Montgomery had 3 games in which he had at least 16 touches. After a rib injury, he lost the lead job to Aaron Jones who had 13 and 19 carries in weeks 4 and 5 respectively. Jones also had a heavy workload in week 7 with 17 rushing attempts and 3 receptions.

The only two weeks of the season where the workload was split were weeks 6 and 9. In the former, Montgomery had 11 touches while Jones had 14. Week 9 potentially provided us with an early viewing of 2018. All 3 RBs had almost an equal amount of touches. Jones had 5 carries and 2 receptions, Montgomery had 5 runs and 1 catch, while Jamaal Williams had 3 total touches (1 carry, 2 catches).

After week 9 however, it became the Jamaal Williams show in terms of workload. In the last 8 games of the season, he had double digit rushing attempts every game and had 20+ touches in 6 of those 8 weeks. Williams’ well rounded game (running, receiving, pass-protecting) means that he is capable of expanding upon his snap count and would be a safe fantasy asset if he was on the field more.

However, Aaron Ripkowski played in 17.19% of the offensive snaps in 2017, and I would not count on that number to decrease. Also, there is a chance that Joel Bouagnon, Joe Kerridge or Devante Mays eat into the RB snaps. All to say, I do not believe any Packers RB will see snap counts like Montgomery (90.00%) Jones (72.00%) and Williams (76.49%) averaged during their respective turns as the bell-cow throughout 2017.

2017 Results

Last Packers’ season can easily be divided in 3, one for each portion of 2017 where an RB dominated playing time. How did each of those players produce with those opportunities? Well, Williams finished 2017 with the most rushing attempts (153) as well as the most attempts per game (9.56) for the Packers. In his injury riddled season, Montgomery was not far behind on a per game basis with 8.875 carries per game. Jones ran less, with 6.75 attempts per game, but he was by far the most effective with his chances. Jones had 5.5 yards per carry, compared to 3.8 for Montgomery and 3.6 for Williams. One of the things that made Jones so great was his explosiveness on a limited number of touches. He had 9.9% of his runs go for 15 yards or more, second in the league behind only Alvin Kamara, of the New Orleans Saints, who had 10.8% of 15+ yard carries.

While Jones was the most effective of the 3 RBs on the ground, he was the least effective catching the football. He only had 2.4 yards per reception, while Montgomery had 7.5 YPR and Williams had 10.5 YPR. As a former WR, it is not surprising to see Montgomery’s effectiveness in the passing game. What might be surprising is that Williams greatly outperformed Jones in terms of receiving. We shall see in 2018 if that trend continues or if Williams and Jones’ numbers both regress to the mean.

Red Zone

The common element in the fantasy production of the Packers RBs is the TDs. The weeks where each scored highly, it was usually due to them getting into the end zone.  For RBs especially, getting Red Zone touches (inside the opponent’s 20 yard line) is an important part of TD production. In 2017, Williams lead the RBs with 1.31 Red Zone carries per game. Montgomery was not far behind with 1.25 RZ rushes per game, while Jones only had 0.92 RZ attempts per game. Of his 11 RZ carries, Jones only had 2 of them inside the 5 yard line, which is where players are more likely to score on the ground. Meanwhile, Montgomery had 5 of his 10 RZ carries inside the 5 and Williams had 9 of his 21 RZ rushes in that same area.

While there was a disparity between Jones and Williams in terms of Red Zone workload, their TD numbers weren’t that much different. Jones had 0.33 TDs per game, while Williams had 0.375 TD’s per game. Montgomery paced the RB group by averaging a TD in half of the games that he played. One element that aided Montgomery was the amount of Red Zone targets per game. He had 0.5 while Jones and Williams were further behind with 0.25 and 0.19 RZ targets per game respectively. If one of them becomes the main RB Red Zone target, that player will be in a valuable position.

Since Aaron Rodgers became the Packers starting QB in 2008, the team has only ever had 3 seasons where more than 30% of their offensive TDs were rushing TDs. Those seasons were last year (34%), 2013 (40%) and 2009 (40%). In two of those seasons, 2013 and 2017, Rodgers was injured for an extended period of time. When Rodgers is on the field, the Packers pass the ball a lot, including in the Red Zone.

Fantasy Points

With all of these stats that I have presented, most fantasy owners will want to know how all of this affects the fantasy points for these players. In both Standard (0 points for a catch) and PPR (1 point for each reception) formats, Montgomery had the most fantasy points per game with 8.575 and 11.45 receptively.  Williams was second in both formats with 7.36 fantasy points per game in Standard and 8.925 points in PPR. Jones brought up the rear with 5.92 points in Standard and 6.67 points in PPR.  Jones was the least productive catching the ball of the three RBs, so it makes sense that he did not even register a full point difference between the two formats.

According to FFtoday.com’s Consistency Rankings, an Elite Performance for an RB in Standard scoring is 17.92 Fantasy points in a week. Williams had the highest amount of Elite weeks, with 21.43% for his 2017 season. Jones was close behind with 20.00%, followed by Montgomery with 12.50%. However, they also define a #1 week (a week where a player performs well enough to be a starter on a fantasy team) as 11.64 points. Montgomery actually had the highest amount of #1 weeks with 37.50%, while Williams had 21.43% followed by Jones with 20%. In PPR scoring, the definitions of Elite and #1 rise to 23.04 points and 14.75 points respectively.  The PPR consistency percentages remain the same for Montgomery while the other two saw drops in their Elite weeks. Williams only has 14.29% Elite weeks during 2017 while Jones did not have any. Montgomery had a better consistency as a starter in fantasy lineups but did not have the same upside as Williams and Jones. However, the latter two lose that upside advantage in PPR formats.

ADP

According to Fantasy Football Calculator’s Average Draft Position (ADP) for 12-team leagues, all 3 Packer’s RBs are going between the 8^th and 10^th round. Currently, in Standard scoring settings, Williams and Jones are basically equal with ADPs of 8.01 and 8.07 respectively. Montgomery, who receives a lot of his production from catching the ball, is going at 9.12 on average. In PPR settings, Williams again has the highest ADP at 7.10, followed by Jones at 9.01 and Montgomery at 9.04. Considering his skill set, it is not surprising that Montgomery closes the gap in PPR ADP.

Jones’ recent ADP status in 2018 has been interesting. According to FFC’s ADP, in June, Jones was being drafted in the 7^th round, with a peak of 7.04. However, since the NFL announced that Jones would be suspended for the first 2 weeks of the season, Jones’ ADP has started to drop.

While Jones appears to be trending downward, Williams is naturally moving in the opposite direction. His peak ADP of 2018 was in late May when he was being drafted at 6.10. In just over a month, his ADP fell to it’s lowest point of 9.12. That was on July 3^rd, the day that Jones’ suspension was announced. Since then Williams’ ADP has risen and will probably continue to do so.

Verdict

I have outlined how Aaron Jones, Ty Montgomery and Jamaal Williams all performed in 2017, but we should not necessarily expect them to repeat that production. Most games last season featured one RB dominating the touches and with some of the comments that Head Coach Mike McCarthy has made during this offseason, we can expect more or less an even split of the workload.

With Jones’ efficiency and explosiveness, he most likely the RB that will be most productive in an equal time share. However, Montgomery and Williams will both probably see an increase of touches during Aaron Jones’ 2 game absence to start the season. Based on how Williams finished in 2017, I am guessing that he will see double digit carries in those weeks, with Montgomery seeing the majority of the passing-down work. If Williams excels in that role, McCarthy might ride the hot hand and continue to feed him a solid workload. However, if he averages less than 4 yards per carry, like he did last season, I expect more of a 3-way split upon Jones’ return.

At the point in the draft where all 3 Packers RBs are going, I like drafting players for upside to match my early high floor investments. I can see that upside with Jones and Montgomery but not as much with Williams. Considering that he demonstrated the ability to be an every-down back, he probably has the safest floor for all 3. As a result, for those who make several high ceiling picks early, Williams is the Packers RB to target.

In terms of drafting players in committees, I also prefer going with the cheapest option.  I would closely monitor their ADPs and if Jones continues to fall, he would be the player that I would target in Standard scoring settings.

Montgomery has the most pass catching pedigree and I believe that the Packers will use him in that role even more than they did last season. Williams demonstrated that is a capable receiver, but he only got that opportunity when Montgomery was hurt. Unless he is injured again, I believe that Montgomery will get the majority of the pass-catching snaps, thus limiting Williams upside. In a Green Bay offence that will likely go through the arm of Aaron Rodgers, being a consistent target will go a long towards fantasy production. In PPR formats, Montgomery is the Packers RB that I would seek, especially if he continues to have the lowest ADP of all 3.

As you can see, there is an argument to be made to draft any of the 3 main Packers RBs. The best move is for the drafter to decide what role that they want to fill. You can get explosive upside (Jones) PPR production (Montgomery) or a safer floor (Williams).

I hope that I was able to Pack all of the necessary information in to this article. I am happy to help with difficult draft decisions and can be contacted @nyama_ks for comments and questions. As always, enjoy all of the great Goingfor2 content.

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