Fantasy Football Bounceback Candidate: Allen Robinson
WR Allen Robinson | WR | Jacksonville Jaguars | 4th Year
2016 Stats: 73 receptions for 883 yards, 6 TDs
After a big 2015 season (80 catches for 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns), Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Allen Robinson was one of the most disappointing fantasy wide receivers last season. He was a high volume target again, with the same 151 targets as 2015, but big drops in yards per catch (12.1, from 17.5) and yards per target (5.8, from 9.3) led to 883 yards and six touchdowns on Robinson’s 73 receptions in 2016.
Robinson’s 2015 campaign was a unrepeatable fluke in a lot of ways, but last year looks like a major negative over-correction even taking into account the ineptitude of Blake Bortles. So can Robinson bounce back into WR1 territory for fantasy owners this year?
With an improved defense and the addition of Leonard Fournette, the Jaguars are trying to reduce Bortles’ number of pass attempts. He was third in the league in attempts last year with 625, after throwing 606 times in 2015, but if Jacksonville is not trailing significantly as often that volume will drop automatically.
But something seemed to click for Robinson last year after Doug Marrone took over as head coach. He had his second 100-yard game of the season in Week 16, on nine receptions (12 targets), and followed that up with five receptions (on 12 targets again) for 82 yards in Week 17. After that Week 16 game, Marrone chalked up that increase in production to moving Robinson around the formation. That seems fairly trivial, but it’s also a good sign with Marrone in place as the permanent head coach.
Robinson had almost the same amount of red zone targets last year (19 from the source I want to cite, but I’ve seen 22 too) as he had in 2015 (21). But after catching 14 of his red zone targets in 2015, he caught just eight of his red zone looks last year. He also had the worst overall catch rate (48 percent) among receivers in the top-50 in targets.
Something between 2015 and 2016 looks right for Robinson this year. Not a top-10 fantasy wide receiver, but not a low-end WR3 either. His ADP on Fantasy Football Calculator has him at WR20 (pick 4.08) in 12-team standard leagues, and Robinson is in a similar spot (WR19, pick 4.05) in 12-team PPR leagues. That ADP has dropped a half-round in the past month, including a more dramatic drop thus far in August, which points to Robinson as a potential value pick.
Allen Robinson 2017 Projection: 80 receptions, 1,100 yards, 9 TDs
Bounceback Percentage: 85%
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