Fantasy Football Bounceback Candidate: Baker Mayfield

QB Baker Mayfield (Cleveland Browns) | 3rd Year

2019 Stats: 3,827 passing yards, 22 TD, 21 INT; 141 rushing yards, 3 TD

After a very good rookie season in 2018 (3,827 yards, 27 touchdowns, 14 INT in 14 games-13 starts), things couldn’t have been much worse for Baker Mayfield last year. He threw the second-most interceptions in the league (21), with 22 touchdowns and a completion percentage below 60 percent.

The Browns have made another head coaching change, as Kevin Stefanski has replaced Freddie Kitchens. A more refined offensive scheme seems sure to come, and one particular area stands to benefit Mayfield.

According to NextGen Stats, nine of Mayfield’s 22 touchdown passes last year came on play-action and his passer rating was 36.8 points better on play-action attempts. The league leader in touchdown passes off play-action in 2019 was Kirk Cousins, who of course was the Vikings’ quarterback with Stefanski as the offensive coordinator.

The Browns upgraded both offensive tackle spots this offseason, signing Jack Conklin in free agency and using the 10th overall pick on Jedrick Wills. Mayfield took 40 sacks (at least three in a game seven times, five or more four times) last year, so upgrading his pass protection was a priority. Tight end Austin Hooper was also signed in free agency to bolster that spot and add another weapon.

Through the first four weeks of 2019, Mayfield had four touchdowns and six interceptions on his way being QB23 in fantasy over that span. Then came a Week 5 dud on Monday Night Football against the San Francisco 49ers (8-for-22 for 100 yards, two interceptions and one lost fumble). Depending on scoring, Mayfield netted zero or negative fantasy points in that game.

But all was not necessarily lost from there. From Week 6-17 (via Fantasy Pros), Mayfield was QB13. From Week 8 on, he was QB9. From Week 10 on he had multiple passing touchdowns in six of eight games, and he was also QB9 over that span. Two of his three rushing touchdowns on the season came from Week 10 on as well.

From Week 10-17, with the caveat that some didn’t play a meaningless Week 17 for their team, here’s who Mayfield outproduced in fantasy (with ranking over that span, via Fantasy Pros).

–Patrick Mahomes (QB11)
–Matt Ryan (QB13)
–Carson Wentz (QB17)
–Deshaun Watson (QB19)
–Russell Wilson (QB21)
–Tom Brady (QB23)
–Aaron Rodgers (QB24)
-Kirk Cousins (QB25)

Even narrowed to Week 10-16, Mayfield still put up more fantasy points than Ryan, Watson, Wentz, Cousins, Wilson, Brady and Rodgers over that span.

It’s practically impossible for Mayfield to be worse than he was in 2019, and even then he wasn’t useless to his fantasy owners late in the season.

Mayfield’s highest ADP right now, via Fantasy Football Calculator, is QB11 (pick 8.02) in 12-team standard scoring. Otherwise he’s QB12 in half-PPR and 2-QB leagues, and QB14 in full PPR.

One example. Van Pelt says out of shotgun he’s going to have Baker put his left foot up (last year, had his right foot up). Thinks that will help Baker be more fluid in 3-step drop out of the gun https://t.co/362dYcFMwQ

— Jake Trotter (@Jake_Trotter) February 19, 2020

It would be nice if Mayfield ran a little more. But any bounceback in 2020 will be rooted in improvement as a passer, better pass protection, better chemistry with Odell Beckham and an offense that should suit him better.

2020 Projection: 3,860 yards, 29 touchdowns, 15 interceptions; 150 rushing yards, 2 TD

Bounceback Confidence Level: 75%

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