Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Anthony Miller
WR Anthony Miller (Chicago Bears) | 3rd Year
2019 Stats: 52 receptions for 656 yards, 2 TD
After scoring seven touchdowns as a rookie in 2018, Miller seemed set for a breakthrough last year. But offseason surgery on his left shoulder led to a very slow start (17 receptions over the first nine games), and he never fully recovered on his way to 52 receptions for 656 yards and two scores.
Milller injured his shoulder again in Week 17 last season, and had surgery again this offseason. He has been using his rehab time to study some other wide receivers, and he has professed 2020 will be his “best year yet.” Those words belong in the same category as a player saying he’s in the “best shape of his life”, but Miller did finish 2019 pretty strongly.
Over the aforementioned first nine games, Miller played more than 75 percent of the snaps just twice and more than 60 percent three times. From Week 11-Week 16, he played more than 85 percent of the snaps in five of six games.
Over that six-week span, Miller averaged 5.7 catches, nine targets and 72.2 yards per game. He was firmly a fantasy WR2 over that span, as WR17 in full-point PPR, WR19 in half-point PPR and WR21 in standard scoring. Narrow down to Week 11-15, where Miller had at least nine targets in four of those five games (double-digit targets three times), and he was WR8 (full-point PPR), WR9 (half-point PPR) and WR12 (standard) over that span.
Miller succeeded with Mitch Trubisky as his quarterback down the stretch last year, so even the marginal upgrade that is Nick Foles is good news. The departure of Taylor Gabriel, and his 48 targets from last year, is also good news for Miller’s target share as the Bears’ No. 2 wide receiver behind Allen Robinson.
Tallying 85 targets last year, when he started as slowly as he did, practically locks Miller into 100 targets this year over 16 games. If he can combined that volume with more of the scoring from his rookie season, here’s low-end WR2 potential that’s coming in as a WR5 on Fantasy Football Calculator ADP right now (WR49, pick 10.08-12-team PPR). That WR2 ceiling is where the expectations for a full breakout are easily set in 2020.
2020 Projection: 70 receptions for 949 yards, 6 TD
Breakout Confidence Level: 65%
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