Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Blake Jarwin
TE Blake Jarwin (Dallas Cowboys) | 4th Year
2019 Stats: 31 receptions for 365 yards, 3 TD
In three seasons with the Dallas Cowboys since going undrafted, Blake Jarwin has 58 receptions for 672 yards and six touchdowns while not reaching a 40 percent snap share in a season yet. Those numbers would have been TE8 in full PPR last year.
But things are looking up for Jarwin. After unretiring last year, Jason Witten is gone to the Las Vegas Raiders. He’s leaving behind 83 targets from 2019, and numbers (63 catches for 529 yards and four touchdowns) that made him TE11 in full PPR.
Per Graham Barfield of Fantasy Points, Witten led the Cowboys inside the 10-yard line last year (six, h/t to Rotowire), with the eight-most receptions and the 10th-most targets among tight ends. He was also top-15 at the position in air yards (551, according to Air Yards.com, despite a mediocre 6.4 yards per target) and expected fantasy points. Witten did that as a 37-year old, and that No.1 tight end level work will now be the soon-to-be 26 year old (July 16) Jarwin’s (8.9 yards per target last year, 333 air yards).
At 37-years-old and coming off of a year-long retirement, Jason Witten led Dallas in red-zone targets (inside-10), finished 8th among TEs in receptions, 10th in targets, 13th in air yards, & 13th in expected fantasy points per game.
Imagine what Blake Jarwin will do. ADP: TE19.
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) June 23, 2020
The Cowboys also showed their faith in Jarwin with a three-year, $24.25 million contract extension. But there is a fresh potential fly in the fantasy breakout ointment.
Cleveland Browns tight end David Njoku has reportedly asked for a trade, with a report from Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com suggesting the Cowboys might have interest. A report from SI.com’s Mike Fisher said the Cowboys don’t want to trade for Njoku, right down to that they didn’t know he changed to Drew Rosenhaus as his agent still less than a week ago now.
If that initial report is not just Rosenhaus’ way to spur interest and the Cowboys do acquire Njoku, and that “if” is a huge one, he would surely be on the wrong side of a timeshare with Jarwin. But losing anything significant would hurt Jarwin, who could also absorb a chunk of the 107 2019 targets left behind by Randall Cobb and Tavon Austin.
Despite the positive developments for him, Jarwin is coming in dirt cheap at TE17 (pick 13.10) in 12-team full PPR and TE20 (pick 14.02) in half-PPR (via Fantasy Football Calculator). All the mouths to feed in Dallas’ offense is the driving factor for that. But if a fossil like Witten can post a starter-caliber fantasy season as the Cowboys’ No. 1 tight end after a year off, Jarwin can surely do it himself this year.
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2020 Projection: 58 receptions for 657 yards, 6 TD
Breakout Confidence: 68%
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