Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Calvin Ridley

WR Calvin Ridley (Atlanta Falcons) | 3rd Year

2019 Stats: 63 receptions for 866 yards, 7 TD

Before an abdominal injury cost him the final three games of last season, Calvin Ridley had a touchdown in three of his last four games, In the other, he had eight catches for 91 yards (on 10 targets). His 16-game pace was 77 receptions (on 115 targets) for 1,066 yards and eight touchdowns.

With those full-16 game numbers, Ridley would have been WR14 in standard leagues, WR16 in full PPR and WR15 in half-PPR. As it was he was WR23, WR27 and WR25 respectively.

After Mohamed Sanu was traded to the Patriots last year, Russell Gage stepped into a bigger role (45 catches over the final nine games). But Ridley produced a bit better himself, with 34 catches (on 49 targets) for 493 yards and three touchdowns over the six games he played after Sanu was gone.

Some projections that are out there, including my own early one elsewhere, have the Falcons going over 600 pass attempts and Ridley coming in at 123 or 124 targets with a share somewhere in the 19-20 percent range. New tight end Hayden Hurst is unlikely to repeat Austin Hooper‘s 119-target pace from last year (97 targets in 13 games), so there are some stray targets for someone to pick up.

The convenient comp for Ridley is Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin. He finished as WR2 in standard, full PPR and half-PPR last year, after finishing as WR25, WR27 and WR25 respectively in 2018.

Julio Jones is the clear No. 1 guy in the Falcons’ passing game, with 150 targets a lock if he’s healthy. But he has a tendency to be banged up, often playing hurt and occasionally sitting out short stretches of games. If Jones were to go down to a major injury this year, Ridley’s upside defies explanation as the newly anointed No. 1 target for Matt Ryan.

The breakout bandwagon for Ridley this year has pushed him as a top-10 fantasy wide receiver this year. But his ADP doesn’t yet reflect that, at WR16 (pick 4.04) in 12-team full PPR (via FF Calculator) and WR18 (pick 4.07) in 12-team standard scoring. So there’s actually some potential value be had, if Ridley’s ADP holds close to where it is.

An out of the box draft strategy for someone with a mid-to-late first-round pick in a PPR league could go like this: Round 1: Jones. Round 2: Best available RB. Round 3: Best available running back. Round 4: Ridley.

2020 Projection: 82 receptions for 1,086 yards, 8 TD

Breakout Confidence Level: 92%

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