Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: D’Andre Swift

http://gty.im/1229156244

RB D’Andre Swift (DET)

2020 Stats: 114 carries for 521 yards, 8 TD; 46 receptions for 357 yards, 2 TD

In his first four NFL games, D’Andre Swift totaled 12 carries. He offset that a little with passing game usage (13 catches on 16 targets), but the gap in usage between he and Adrian Peterson (54 carries in the first four games) was downright malpractice by the Lions’ offensive coaches.

After a Week 5 bye, Swift topped 100 yards with two touchdowns against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 6. He scored again against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 7, with 48 total yards on 13 touches. Then, with a nod to game script in a 41-21 loss, Swift had just six carries for one yard along with three catches for 22 yards against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 8.

Swift got back on a good track in Week 9, with 97 total yards (on 13 carries and three catches) against the the Minnesota Vikings. In Week 10, his first NFL start, he had 16 carries for 81 yards and five catches for another 68 and a touchdown against Washington.

But a concussion in that Week 10 game cost Swift the next three games. He led the Lions’ backfield in touches (11) when he returned in Week 14 against the Green Bay Packers, with 50 total yards and a rushing touchdown.

In 46-25 loss to the Tennessee Titans in Week 15, Swift was a bright spot for the Lions with 15 carries for 67 yards and two touchdowns along with four catches for 15 yards. The Lions were further dismantled by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 16 (47-7), but Swift managed 70 total yards on 14 touches. To finish things off in Week 17 against the Vikings, Swift had 70 total yards again (54 rushing, 16 receiving) with a rushing score. 

For the season in 2020 (through Week 17), Swift finished as RB20 in standard fantasy scoring and RB18 in full PPR. That’s despite missing three games, and not getting the touches he should have in a least four others. From Week 9-17 among running backs who played at least five games in that span, he was RB9 on a per-game basis in full PPR (RB12 in standard scoring).

With Peterson a free agent, and the recently-waived Kerryon Johnson rendered irrelevant, the tracks were cleared for the D’Andre Swift breakout train this year. Head coach Dan Campbell professed a desire to deploy him in the slot, while offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn and running backs coach Duce Staley professed the idea of 20-plus touches per game.

Then the Lions signed Jamaal Williams in free agency. The former Packer gets just enough work and does just enough of everything (70 catches and nine total touchdowns over the last two seasons) to have an impact on Swift’s production as the lead back. Swift proved he could produce with less work last year, and a significant uptick is still in play. Williams’ presence just comes off as annoying for those who are optimistic on Swift this year. Then the context of a bad team in Detroit is added.

The Lions lost Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones in free agency, and replaced them with Breshad Perriman and Tyrell Williams. They also drafted Amon-Ra St. Brown, but the wide receiver group in Detroit is now far less talented than it was. The top two options in the passing game may very well be tight end T.J. Hockenson and Swift.

Swift gets a bump up in value in any PPR format, and all eight of his rushing touchdowns as a rookie came from six yards out or closer. That touchdown rate, given that he had just 114 carries, is not sustainable. But the promise of more carries would help offset that regression.

ESPN ranked Swift as RB12 in their post-draft projections. Fantasy Football Calculator’s 12-team full PPR ADP has him coming in at RB14 (pick 2.09) right now (RB20 in 12-team standard; pick 3.12).

Swift’s ADP will be worth watching as the volume of fantasy drafts grows. He belongs firmly in RB2 range, with RB1 (top-10) upside and breakout potential.

FREE SHIPPING ALWAYS + Up To 3 Bonus Gifts Now At Craft Beer Club – Shop Now!

Projection: 205 carries for 920 yards, 7 TD; 61 receptions for 458 yards, 1 TD

Breakout Confidence Level: 60%

ATTN Dynasty Commissioners: Do you want to do something cool for your league? How about a 1-hour live show dedicated to YOUR league? Team-by-team breakdowns, rankings, and more. For details and to book a show, visit: GoingFor2.com/plp.