Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Daniel Jones
QB Daniel Jones (NYG)
2020 Stats: 2,943 passing yards, 11 TD, 10 INT; 423 rushing yards, 1 TD
Over his first two seasons, New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones accounted for a league-high 39 turnovers (22 interceptions, 17 lost fumbles). The 83 sacks he has taken also ranks among the most in the league over that span. In his second season, as the Giants set of skill position players was hampered by injuries, his protection was bad and he battled his own injury for a stretch, Jones regressed in many respects.
According to Pro Football Focus, Jones was pressured on 40 percent of his dropbacks last year (second-highest rate in the league). On the positive side, PFF credited him with 18 big-time throws and just two turnover-worthy plays on 20-plus yard throws.
Heading into his third season, Jones has no excuses. The Giants invested big free agent money in wide receiver Kenny Golladay, while also signing tight end Kyle Rudolph. They were lined up to take Alabama wide receiver DeVonta Smith with the 11th pick in the draft, but they traded down and instead got Florida wide receiver Kadarius Toney at No. 20. Running back Saquon Barkley is apparently making nice progress rehabbing from his torn ACL, and if he’s not quite ready to roll general manager Dave Gettleman has professed confidence (warranted or otherwise) in free agent signing Devontae Booker as a three-down back.
Here’s what the Giants depth chart now looks like:
RB: Saquon Barkley, Devontae Booker
WR: Kenny Golladay, Darius Slayton, Sterling Shepard, Kadarius Toney, John Ross
TE: Evan Engram, Kyle Rudolph
It would’ve been nice to see the Giants sign or draft a notable offensive lineman, but the return of offensive tackle Nate Solder from his 2020 opt-out should help.
Jones missed two games (Week 13 and Week 15) due to a hamstring issue, and playing at less than full strength he was benched the game in-between. Over his last six games of the season he threw just one interception in 176 pass attempts with two fumbles lost. Five of his six total fumbles over that stretch came in two games, including three in that aforementioned Week 14 game against the Arizona Cardinals. That run of cleaner football shouldn’t be forgotten.
From when he took over as the starter in Week 3 as a rookie in 2019 to the end of that season (13 games), Jones was QB15 in fantasy. Remove his first start (336 passing yards, four total touchdowns), and that dropped to QB22 from Week 4-17. But over that latter stretch (Week 4-17) as a rookie, among quarterbacks who played at least nine games, he was QB15 (QB14 if you make it a 10-game minimum).
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Consistency will be critical for Jones in 2021, and having all the talent around him healthy together (which it has remarkably rarely been to this point) will go a long way to making that happen. His running ability, while not Lamar Jackson or even quite Josh Allen level, is a cheat-code for extra production. There’s built-in upside and value in an ADP that will surely sit in QB2 range (QB29 at this early stage, according to Fantasy Football Calculator). The only question is if Jones cashes that upside all the way in.
A full third-year breakout for Jones is a low-end QB1 finish, nothing less. Even with general optimism, as reflected in my projection, it’s hard to have a ton of confidence it’ll happen.
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Daniel Jones 2021 Projection: 4,025 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, 17 INT; 530 rushing yards, 3 TD
Breakout Confidence Level: 58%
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