Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Derrius Guice

RB Derrius Guice (Washington Redskins) | 3rd Year

2019 Stats: 42 carries for 245 yards, 2 TD; seven receptions for 79 yards, 1 TD

Over two NFL seasons, Derrius Guice has played just five of 32 possible games. A torn ACL cost him his entire rookie season, then a torn meniscus and a sprained MCL sidelined him at two different points last year.

The Redskins would surely like to unleash Guice this year. But they can’t be blamed for bringing back Adrian Peterson, signing Peyton Barber and J.D. McKissic and drafting the multi-faceted Antonio Gibson to give themselves ample backfield options. But Peterson, Barber, McKissic and Gibson are all limited in some way, while Guice is easy to tab as the most complete of the Washington backs.

Over 42 carries last season, Guice had three runs of 20 or more yards and four runs of 10-plus yards. His 5.8 yards per carry and 11.3 yards per catch showed his big-play ability, and as cited by RotoWire his after contact numbers were strong in 2019. His seven red zone carries were a solid share considering he only played five games (15.2 percent), and they all came in the three fully healthy games (Week 11-13) after he returned from the torn meniscus.

Peterson is not going away, for better or worse, and the Redskins seem to have plans for Gibson and his Christian McCaffrey-like skill set. But if Guice can stay healthy, he should have little trouble displaying that he’s the best running back on the Redskins.

Until he shows he can stay on the field though, health will be the biggest “if” with Guice. The talent is clearly there, but availability is the greatest ability and he hasn’t measured up.

The prospect of a frustrating backfield committee, and in particular Peterson siphoning value like what Carlos Hyde might do to Chris Carson in Seattle, harshes any breakout buzz around Guice. But the ADP price looks right in 12-team full PPR, at pick 6.09 (RB31). In 12-team standard the cost is a little higher, at pick 6.01 and RB26. In that RB3 range in drafts, on the assumption it holds, the risk is reduced.

Guice’s ceiling, if he manages to play close to 16 games and he seizes the Redskins’ backfield, is high. Like, a finish as a top-12 or even a top-10 fantasy running back kind of high. But the risk-laden, injury-dampened floor is on the other end, ready to leave us projecting what might have been. A breakout to the full extent may have to wait until 2021, but my 2020 projection is rooted in a mostly healthy season for the third-year man out of LSU.

2020 Projection: 180 carries for 815 yards, 7 TD; 25 receptions for 188 yards, 1 TD

Breakout Confidence Level: 33%

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