Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Gabriel Davis
http://gty.im/1291125366
WR Gabriel Davis (BUF)
Stats: 35 receptions for 599 yards, 7 TD
Coming off a 1,200-yard season during his final year at Central Florida, Gabriel Davis was an interesting mid-to-late round NFL Draft prospect in 2020. The Buffalo Bills took him in the fourth round, adding him to their mix behind Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley and John Brown.
Davis caught his first NFL touchdown in Week 2, but he had just three catches for 22 yards over the first two games of his career. He had four catches for 81 yards in Week 3 and five catches for 58 yards in Week 5, with a touchdown in-between on his lone catch of Week 4. Then over the next three games, he totaled three receptions on six targets.
From Week 12-17 six games), with Brown out through Week 16, Davis averaged over 20 yards per catch with four touchdowns (one in four of the six games). In the seven games Brown missed last year, Davis had double-digit PPR fantasy points four times. His 17.1 yards per catch average on the season was fourth in the league, and 20 percent of his catches went for touchdowns.
Davis had at least four targets in nine games as a rookie. He scored or topped 80 yards in six of those.
Will be fun to see how this one shapes up. Gabriel Davis averaged 2.21 fantasy points per target last year. Highest on the Bills and 11th most in the NFL. 👀 #Bills #FantasyFootball pic.twitter.com/cGubUUlfHE
— FantasyData (@FantasyDataNFL) May 24, 2021
Gabriel Davis proved to be a reliable, downfield target for Josh Allen last season pic.twitter.com/20fskdMnoo
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) May 21, 2021
Gabriel Davis: 5 REC TDs on deep targets in 2020
— PFF (@PFF) May 13, 2021
Led all rookies📈 pic.twitter.com/t9TJF0rPlT
Brown was released by the Bills this offseason, but he wasn’t replaced in parallel fashion. Emmanuel Sanders is more similar to Beasley as a short area guy, but the competition for targets from Josh Allen is notable. That said, Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception chart shows Davis is more than just a deep threat.
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NEW #ReceptionPerception profile on Bills WR Gabriel Davishttps://t.co/VAr51xR88e pic.twitter.com/3BhN3jZ1qr
— Reception Perception (@RecepPerception) May 25, 2021
Davis is coming in at an ADP of WR65 in 12-team standard leagues on Fantasy Football Calculator right now, and Fantasy Pros current consensus ranking in standard scoring is similar (WR60). Fantasy Pros full-point PPR ranking for Davis is WR70 right now.
In Davis’ case, there’s a distinction to be made between being a sleeper and a breakout candidate. In WR5/6 range in 12-team standard leagues, if that ADP holds anywhere close to that, he’s definitely a big-time sleeper. But setting a second-year breakout line at a top-36 wide receiver (WR3), that’s a tough sell with such a hard ceiling based on the Bills’ other wide receivers.
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2021 Projection: 60 receptions for 825 yards, 6 TD
Breakout Confidence Level: 20%
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