Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Hunter Renfrow

WR Hunter Renfrow (Las Vegas Raiders) | 2nd Year

2019 Stats: 49 receptions for 605 yards, 4 TD

After what felt like a Van Wilder-esque college career at Clemson, the Raiders drafted Hunter Renfrow in the fifth-round of the 2019 draft. His first six games weren’t great, with 14 receptions for 115 yards on 26 targets in (eight targets in one game).

Over the next five games Renfrow built some momentum, with 22 receptions for 281 yards (12.8 yards per catch, 10.4 yards per target) and two touchdowns. But a rib injury in Week 12 sidelined him for the next three games.

Renfrow returned in Week 16 against the Chargers, and posted seven catches (on nine targets) for 107 yards and a touchdown. He followed that by catching 6-of-9 targets for 102 yards and a touchdown in Week 17 against the Broncos.

Over his final seven games in 2019, Renfrow had 35 receptions for 490 yards and four touchdowns (14 yards per catch, 10.9 yards per target). He had more than 17 PPR points four times in that span, with only one (the injury-shortened Week 12) where he didn’t top eight PPR points. Per game over that span (Week 7-17) in full PPR, Renfrow was WR26.

With a h/t to Pro Football Network, Renfrow was a top-12 receiver in both average yards after the catch (6.8) and average yards of separation (3.5) last year. By PFN’s Offensive Share Metric (OSM), Renfrow’s 39.0 grade was the highest among all wide receivers with four weekly “elite” grades (40 or better)

The Raiders had a significant need at wide receiver, so they attacked it. Free agency brought Nelson Agholor. But more significantly they drafted Henry Ruggs 12th overall, then they drafted wide receiver/running back hybrid Lynn Bowden and wide receiver Bryan Edwards in the third round. So there are suddenly a ton of options for Derek Carr, including free agent signing tight end Jason Witten.

That being said, it’s easy to see Renfrow as the third receiving option for Raiders, behind tight end Darren Waller, Ruggs. Tyrell Williams will also be vying for a role, but his status as more of a downfield guy stands to limit his consistent impact with Carr’s tendency to throw short. The Raiders were also a bottom-10 team in pass play percentage last year (55.8 percent).

Renfrow’s value is greater in PPR formats, and even there he’s basically free right now (WR63 in 12-team full PPR, pick 14.09, via Fantasy Football Calculator).

If we put a breakout for Renfrow in the WR3 range in PPR, the high end of which he was per game during his best stretch as a rookie, the path to it is available but not without roadblocks.

2020 Projection: 52 receptions for 675 yards,  4 TD

Breakout Confidence: 35%

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