Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Ian Thomas

TE Ian Thomas | Carolina Panthers | 3rd Year

2019 Stats: 16 receptions for 136 yards, 1 TD

Since 2011, Greg Olsen has been the Carolina Panthers No. 1 tight end and a primary target for Cam Newton for most of that time. He was a top-10 fantasy tight end five straight years from 2012-2016. But he is gone to the Seattle Seahawks, and the baton has been passed to Ian Thomas.

In the nine games Olsen missed over the last two seasons, Thomas totaled 35 catches (on 54 targets) for 348 yards and three touchdowns. He averaged 9.7 PPR fantasy points per game in those games.

Before Week 13 last year, Thomas barely played and had one catch for four yards on four targets. An uptick in playing time came after that, but he still cleared 50 yards (or 30 for that matter) just once in the last five games. There a small variance in his credited target total for the season, 30 in most places but 31 in others. But the broader points to come will stand regardless.

At first glance, Thomas is well down the pecking order for targets in Carolina. Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson and Curtis Samuel are ahead of him. But there’s a chance Samuel is traded, and Anderson is primarily a deep threat who doesn’t look like a great fit with Teddy Bridgewater.

Thomas, at 6-foot-4 with a 85 percentile catch radius (via Player Profiler), profiles as a good red zone target. That gives him the potential to fill an open niche in the Panthers’ offense. Per Player Profiler 22 of his 31 targets in 2019 (71 percent) were deemed uncatchable, which created a 21.1 percent gap in his actual and true catch rates. At 30 targets, the uncatchable target rate was 73.3 percent.

Thomas was credited with three drops last year, and he’s been credited with six or seven drops on 79 career targets depending on the site you are looking at. But as a rate/percentage, he has had too many drops on the whole.

The draft price is right on Thomas, as he doesn’t even come in the top 21 tight ends in Fantasy Football Calculator 12-team full PPR ADP. He’s only in the top-22 in half-PPR (TE21, pick 14.01-12 teams). Fantasy Pros ADP Consensus, in standard scoring, has Thomas at TE21. TE21 in standard scoring last year was Tyler Eifert (43 catches for 436 yards, 3 TD)

Thomas might put it all together, with 50-60 catches with 5-10 touchdowns, and finish as a top-12 fantasy tight end this year. While he is a great target for those who wait to draft a tight end, a breakout of that kind is hard to confidently project.

2020 Projection: 46 receptions for 456 yards, 5 TD

Breakout Confidence: 40%

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