Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Jalen Reagor
WR Jalen Reagor | Philadelphia Eagles | Rookie
2019 Stats (College-TCU): 43 receptions for 611 yards, 5 TD; 89 rushing yards
After Henry Ruggs (No. 12 to the Raiders), Jerry Jeudy (No. 15 to the Broncos) and CeeDee Lamb (No. 17 to the Cowboys), Jalen Reagor was the fourth wide receiver off the board in April’s draft, No. 21 to the Philadelphia Eagles.
Reagor’s lackluster numbers in 2019 at TCU was largely the product of wretched quarterback play. As a sophomore in 2018, with merely competent quarterbacks, he had 72 catches for over 1,000 yards with 11 total touchdowns (nine receiving). He did have two punt return touchdowns last season.
Per @PFF, only 30.7% of Jalen Reagor's targets were charted as accurate in 2019.
Only three other receivers in college football had it worse.pic.twitter.com/dPw56K2fhJ
— Austin Gayle (@austingayle_) April 24, 2020
No rookie WR saw an accurate pass more often than Justin Jefferson (69%) per PFF. No WR saw fewer accurate passes than Jalen Reagor (31%).
Eagles clearly graded Reagor's separation ability on a curve when they went took him over Jefferson (who lined up in slot 99% of the time).
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) April 29, 2020
By the end of last season Greg Ward and JJ Arcega-Whiteside were the Eagles’ top two wide receivers. So the position was a top need this offseason. After Reagor, they took John Hightower in the fifth round and Quez Watkins in the sixth round of the draft. They also traded for Marquise Goodwin during the draft. With Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson back and hopefully healthy, suddenly Carson Wentz seems loaded with options.
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All indications are Jackson is healthy, but he’s 33 years old and has missed at least two games in four of the last five seasons. Jeffery (foot) is working his way back from a Lisfranc injury, and he’ll open camp practices on the PUP list. Suffice to say his status for Week 1 is in doubt, and at 30 years old it’s not like he’ll suddenly become a picture of durability.
On top of Jeffery’s lingering injury and any questions about Jackson’s ability to stay on the field, Goodwin has opted out of the 2020 season due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Among rookies, Reagor has an unrivaled path (this side of Ruggs?) to being his team’s No. 1 wide receiver. Tight ends Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert are going to take a huge target share, and running back Miles Sanders should also be heavily involved as pass catcher. But 100 or more targets is within reach for Reagor as a rookie.
In 12-team PPR leagues, via Fantasy Football Calculator, Reagor is coming off the board at WR47 (pick 11.01). In standard scoring, somehow, he’s all the way down at WR62 (pick 14.06). For a comparison, Jeffery is optimistically at WR48 (pick 10.12) in standard scoring on FF Calculator.
WR47 in full PPR last year (through Week 17) was Tyrell Williams (42 receptions on 64 targets for 651 yards, six touchdowns). Reagor should be able to outdo those target, catch and yardage totals easily, and six touchdowns is a reasonable expectation.
WR24 in full PPR last year was Stefon Diggs (63 catches for 1,130 yards, six touchdowns). I’ll set the breakout threshold for Reagor there, bumping up the catches and dropping the yardage to create a wash while keeping the touchdowns in the same range.
Unless things change dramatically in the coming weeks, Reagor is lined up as a draft value independent of his breakout outlook. At that low-end WR2 line in full PPR for a breakout rookie season, I’ve got him falling short.
2020 Projection: 60 receptions for 848 yards, 6 TD
Breakout Confidence: 50%
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