Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Joe Burrow

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QB Joe Burrow (CINC)

2020 Stats: 2,688 passing yards, 13 TD, 5 INT; 142 rushing yards, 3 TD

Buoyed by a rushing touchdown, but also robbed of a touchdown pass on an iffy offensive pass interference call, Joe Burrow finished as QB20 (17.32 fantasy points, -1 for an interception) in fantasy in his NFL debut last year. Then he went on a nice run, with three straight 300-yard passing games, 300 or more yards in five of his next six and over 300 yards and/or multiple passing touchdowns in six of his next seven. Over that seven games, Week 2-Week 8, he finished as QB10, QB13, QB20, QB29, QB14, QB4 and QB11 each week and he was QB9 for the total stretch.

After a Week 9 bye, Burrow struggled in tough matchups against the Pittsburgh Steelers (213 yards, one touchdown) and Washington Football Team (203 yards, one touchdown). That Week 11 game against Washington was also the game he suffered a torn ACL in, ending his season.

Burrow was pressured on a league-high 32.3 percent of his drop backs last year. He was sacked 32 times in almost 10 games, a pace of 51 sacks taken over 16 games. So offensive line had to be an offseason priority for the Bengals, and they signed offensive tackle Riley Reiff after he was cut by the Vikings. Oregon offensive tackle Penei Sewell felt like a pick ordained for them at No. 5 overall, but they took Burrow’s college teammate wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase instead. They didn’t ignore the line in the draft though. Second-round pick Jackson Carman is lined up to step right in at left guard, which will help.

If Burrow can be kept upright, he has an enviable trio of wide receivers in Chase, Tee Higgins and the underrated Tyler Boyd. The question of his availability for Week 1 coming off his torn ACL is trending the right way, with ESPN’s Adam Schefter reporting Burrow is “all systems go” for the season opener against the Vikings.

The Bengals defense is still going to be bad enough to force Burrow to throw the ball plenty this year. By either of his paces last year, over his nine full games or all 10 he played, he would have led the league in pass attempts by a good margin over actual league leader Matt Ryan (626 attempts). By pass attempts per game (40.4) Burrow finished narrowly second to Ben Roethlisberger (40.5).

Over his last three starts as a rookie, Burrow totaled just 21 rushing yards. Those last two tough matchups against the pass rushes of Pittsburgh and Washington have to be noted, and it’s not as if Burrow is Lamar Jackson. But that fade as a runner, in line with the drop off in passing output, points to being a little banged up.

As we stretch toward late-May, Burrow is coming of the board at QB10 in standard scoring 12-team mock drafts (via Fantasy Football Calculator). Fantasy Pros’ current rankings has him at QB12.

Burrow will be a solid draft target for those who wait to take a quarterback, with the potential to finish as a top-5 fantasy signal caller. Setting the breakout line at a more reasonable top-10, volume gives him a good chance to get there.

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Projection: 4,160 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, 14 INT; 255 rushing yards, 2 TD

Breakout Confidence Level: 61%

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