Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Jonnu Smith
TE Jonnu Smith (Tennessee Titans) | 4th Year
2019 Stats: 35 receptions for 439 yards, 3 TD; 78 rushing yards
For his first three NFL seasons, Jonnu Smith has been an example of untapped upside. But last year, with Delanie Walker out and Ryan Tannehill offering a higher level of quarterback play, he did take a step.
From Week 1-Week 6 Smith had six receptions (on eight targets) for 97 yards, and that yardage was inflated by a 57-yard reception against the Buffalo Bills in Week 5. Over that span Walker had 21 catches on 31 targets.
But in concert with Tannehill’s first start, Week 7 against the Chargers, and Walker leaving that game very early after aggravating an ankle injury, Smith became the Titans’ No. 1 tight end. He had three catches for 64 yards against the Chargers, and from Week 7 on he was TE12 in standard scoring.
Smith’s snap shares of course went up with Walker out, at least 72 percent in each of the final 10 games. He topped 60 yards in four of them, with a touchdown in one of the other contests. Narrow to Week 14-16, the fantasy playoffs for most people, and Smith was TE7 in standard scoring with at least 60 yards or a touchdown in all three games (both in Week 16).
The Titans threw the ball the second-fewest times in the league last year (448), and that is not going to change dramatically this year. But the Titans also don’t have a lot of depth and wide receiver, with A.J. Brown and Corey Davis the only guys commanding any significant target share. It should be noted Tajae Sharpe (35 targets in 2019) is gone.
Tennessee targeted their tight ends 25 percent of the time last year (107; eighth-highest share in the league). Walker’s 31 targets from last year are gone, as he remains unsigned, and a chunk of the 24 targets that went to Anthony Firkser in 2019 would ideally go elsewhere.
According to Pro Football Focus, Smith was eighth in yards per route run among tight ends who were targeted at least 25 times in 2019. Among that same group, he was third in missed tackles forced (14, behind George Kittle and Travis Kelce). PFF also gave him a receiving grade that put him 11th among qualified tight ends.
Jonnu Smith
Give this Man MORE Targets in 2020
(Catch Rate – Passer Rating)Vs. Zone: 80.7% – 135.9 🤯
Vs. Man: 70% – 127.1
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In Slot: 78.5% – 98.5 pic.twitter.com/yC8UXtv7pk
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) March 1, 2020
The Titans’ passing game is ripe for regression this year, but some of that is lined up to be offset by more volume. In any case, Smith is in line for a larger share of whatever there is to be had. In his projection for Smith and a residual projection for Tennessee’s passing game, Kyle Yates of Fantasy Pros gives Smith 102 targets (a 22 percent share). That would be a close second to Brown on the team (107 targets, per Yates’ projection).
I’m not ready to project 100 targets for Smith in 2020, but close to double last year (80-85) is a comfortable range. Let’s give him roughly a two-thirds catch rate, and a slight drop in yards per catch based on more volume.
Smith is an easy target for those who like to wait to draft a tight end. Right now, Fantasy Football Calculator has his ADP at TE16 (pick 13.09) in 12-team full PPR and TE22 (pick 14.05) in 12-team standard.
With all the positive in his direction as the icing on what he did in last year’s final 10 games, it would be an upset if Smith doesn’t finish as a top-10 fantasy tight end this year. The breakout season that has seemed destined for a year or two, as Walker aged out, is either here or it will never come.
2020 Projection: 56 receptions for 644 yards, 6 TD
Breakout Confidence Level: 77%
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