Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Laviska Shenault
WR Laviska Shenault (JAX)
2020 Stats: 58 receptions for 600 yards, 5 TD; 18 carries for 91 yards
Laviska Shenault landed on the scene as a sophomore at Colorado in 2018, with 86 catches for over 1,000 yards, over 1,100 yards from scrimmage and 11 total touchdowns (five rushing) in nine games. He wasn’t as dominant in 2019, but 925 yards from scrimmage (764 receiving yards) and six total touchdowns over 11 games is nothing to sneeze at.
Shenault declared early for the 2020 NFL Draft, and landed with the Jacksonville Jaguars in the second round (42nd overall). In 14 games as a rookie, he finished third on the team in targets (79) and tied for the team lead with five receiving touchdowns. He was used in the slot and on the outside a fair amount, with more than 70 snaps in all four spots (right and left-outside and slot) and over 130 snaps in three of the spots (via RotoWire)
After having one of the league’s worst offenses last year, the Jaguars should be better under new head coach Urban Meyer. If rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence is merely solid, he’ll be an upgrade. Shenault is among the weapons who’ll make Lawrence’s job easier.
Shenault missed two games last season with a hamstring injury, and he barely played in the game he was injured in (Week 9 against the Texans). In the other 13 games he played, he played more than 60 percent of the snaps in 10. He played 57 percent of the snaps in Week 2, and had 72 total yards (WR46 in full PPR). In Week 4 against the Bengals (54 percent snap share), he finished as WR31 in full PPR (five catches for 86 yards). In Week 13 against the Vikings, with a 35 percent snap share, Shenault had 68 total yards (three catches for 38 and a touchdown) with a finish as WR24 in full PPR.
Narrow back to the 10 with at least 60 percent of the snaps, and here are his stat lines with fantasy finish (full PPR).
Week 1: three receptions for 37 yards, 1 TD; two carries for 10 yards-WR29
Week 3: five receptions for 33 yards; one carry for one yard-WR55
Week 5: seven receptions for 79 yards-WR25
Week 6: three receptions for 10 yards; one carry for one yard-WR71
Week 7: three receptions for 44 yards; one carry for zero yards-WR60
Week 12: three receptions for 31 yards; one carry for six yards-WR59
Week 14: six receptions for 49 yards; one carry for two yards-WR37
Week 15: five receptions for 43 yards; two carries for one yard-WR46
Week 16: five receptions for 48 yards, 1 TD-WR21
Week 17: six receptions for 68 yards, 2 TD; one carry for -2 yards-WR11
From Week 12-17 last year, Shenault was WR23 in full PPR (WR24 in standard scoring).
With Meyer’s offense as the common theme, it’s easy to draw comparisons between Shenault and Percy Harvin as an offensive weapon/slot receiver. The Jaguars’ OTA plan to use rookie running back Travis Etienne as a wide receiver was a buzzkill for that idea, but NFL Network’s Nate Burleson is still buying into a breakout. So is our own Bo McBrayer.
Fight My Five is back!@nateburleson's Top 5 Breakout WRs for 2021.
— Good Morning Football (@gmfb) June 7, 2021
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“I just love the way he plays. I know there are some concerns about him being a full-time wide receiver. Well, he proved he could be,” Burleson said. “My dude had 58 receptions, that is no slouch. I wish as a rookie I put up almost 60 catches. He had 600 yards.”
Shenault (6-foot-1, 228 pounds) is built like a running back and catches the ball like a wide receiver (73.4 percent catch rate as a rookie. He led all NFL wide receivers by forcing a missed tackle on 28.9 percent of his touches last year. All wide receivers in the league, not just rookies or any other cutoff criteria that might make it seem better than it is beyond the minimum of 50 touches.
DJ Chark and Marvin Jones are lined up to be Jacksonville’s two most-targeted wide receivers. But sprinkle in the possibility of 25-30 carries, and Shenault is a virtual lock to see 100-125 opportunities (targets and carries) with a push toward 70 catches, 800 yards and 5-10 total touchdowns.
I’m tempted to be conservative with Shenault, and his current ADP agrees with me (WR40 in 12-team PPR and WR47 in 12-team standard, via Fantasy Football Calculator). There are so many mouths to feed in Jacksonville’s offense, and they will have a rookie quarterback after all. But if that ADP sticks in WR4 range through the summer, Shenault will be a steal in the teeth of draft season.
A top-24 (WR2) finish is the breakout line for Shenault in his second season. In PPR formats he’s more likely to get there, but there’s definitely a path to it in standard scoring.
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2021 Projection: 68 receptions for 825 yards, 6 TD; 28 carries for 119 yards
Breakout Confidence Level: 61%
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