After the Ravens drafted him 25th overall, Brown hit the ground running a rookie in 2019. He had four catches for 147 yards and two touchdowns (47 and 83 yards) against the Miami Dolphins in Week 1 last season. The he followed that with eight catches (on 13 targets) for 86 yards in Week 2 against the Arizona Cardinals. Through Week 5, he was WR14 in standard scoring leagues.
Brown then missed Week 6 and 7 with an ankle issue, returned in Week 9 after Baltimore’s bye and then when 4-80-1 against the Bengals in Week 10 on 18 snaps as he added a thigh injury to the mix during that practice week. In his remaining seven games, Brown never topped 50 yards. He needed touchdowns in Week 12 against the Rams (five catches for 42 yards and two touchdowns) and in Week 15 against the Jets (four catches for 45 yards and a touchdown) to register a relevant fantasy week.
Week 13 against the 49ers (one catch for one yard), Week 14 against the Bills (three catches for -2 yards) and Week 16 against the Browns (one catch for six yards) were particularly ugly.
People who played playoff fantasy football were happy with Brown’s showing in a Divisional Round loss to the Titans (seven catches for 126 yards).
Brown is a small receiver (5-foot-9, 170 pounds). But he was targeted 13 times in the red zone and six times inside the 10-yard line with four touchdowns inside the-20.
Brown’s game is rooted in speed, which affords him plenty of cushion (6.4 yards average, per NextGen Stats last year) to operate in as corners play off. His route tree is hardly complete, but it doesn’t have to be. He was 10th in target share from the slot last year, and 25th in yards per route run from the slot (h/t to Ben Solak of The Draft Network).
Ravens head coach Jim Harbaugh has said Lamar Jackson has to improve as a deep-ball passer. As Ben Solak of The Draft Network assessed, that doesn’t seem to be an issue of being good at it as much as willingness to let it fly.
On passes of 20-plus yards downfield, Jackson’s adjusted completion rate was 41.8 percent (12th among quarterbacks with at least 50 deep attempts). But he only attempted such throws on 15 percent of his pass attempts, barely above league average, despite favorable coverages as opponents attempted to stop the running game and the weapons to attack downfield.
The Ravens aren’t going to suddenly become an aerial show offensively. But a bit more passing might be in order this year, and simply being healthier can push Brown toward a projection of 90-100 targets.
Brown is coming at WR30 (pick 6.08) in 12-team PPR mocks right now, with a bump up to WR27 (pick 6.02) in 12-team standard. WR3 range looks perfect to take the plunge on Brown, with upside to land firmly in WR2 range.
The weekly boom or bust aspect of Brown will be present until further notice, without huge target volume to raise that floor. If the threshold for 2020 is a 1,000-yard season, a full-on breakout for Brown may have to wait until Year 3.
2020 Projection: 59 receptions for 921 yards, 8 TD
Breakout Confidence Level: 50%
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