Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Matt Breida
RB Matt Breida | Miami Dolphins | 4th Year
2019 Stats: 123 carries for 623 yards, 1 TD; 19 receptions for 120 yards, 1 TD
As is par for the course when playing for a Shanahan, Matt Breida had 381 carries in three seasons (43 games) with the San Francisco 49ers. An offseason trade to the Miami Dolphins puts him into another likely timeshare, with free agent signing Jordan Howard.
Breida averaged over five yards per carry in each of the last two seasons, and last year he literally registered he fastest speed for a ball carrier in the entire league.
Matt Breida ran over 22 MPH on this 83-yard TD run 🏎
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/4VGz6Czu3d
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) October 8, 2019
Breida was derailed by an ankle injury last year, an upon returning from a three-game absence in Week 14 he never had double-digit carries in a game again all the way through the real-life playoffs. Narrowing to his first nine games, he had double-digit PPR fantasy points five times. In 2018, he had at least 12 PPR points in seven of 14 games played. Considering he totaled a pretty meager 46 receptions in 2018 and 2019, that PPR production is notable.
Howard will be the early-down “thunder” to Breida’s more versatile “lightning” in Miami’s reshaped backfield. The Dolphins had wide receivers Allen Hurns and Albert Wilson opt out of the season this week, so there are some vacated targets available. Preston Williams, who led the team in targets at the time of his torn ACL last year, was cleared for football activity this week but he’ll surely be eased into action with very little ramp up into the season.
From Week 1-10 last year, the peak of his season, Breida was RB29 in standard scoring, RB31 in half-PPR and RB32 in full PPR. Project his per game average over a full 16 games, and that would have been RB25 in full PPR.
They are two completely different backs. I usually prefer Howard’s style. I like big bruisers. But I’m told Breida’s work ethic – which is stellar – will draw me in, and one of my trusted sources told me he’ll be the lead back. https://t.co/v0Uvt8bEYq
— Omar Kelly (@OmarKelly) August 6, 2020
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The term “lead back” can mean a lot of things. For the Dolphins it could literally mean Breida getting just more than a 50 percent snap share in most games, with the parallel percentage of the backfield work compared to a little less for Howard and stray scraps left for Patrick Laird and/or Myles Gaskin.
Breida is sure to cede most of the goal line work to Howard, so his touchdown scoring will be largely subject to the randomness of longer runs. But there is some hay to be made as a pass catcher out of the backfield with Howard offering little in that area, and Breida’s career-high of 27 catches is in line to be comfortably bested if he’s healthy.
Fantasy Football Calculator ADP has Breida at RB39 in 12-team PPR (pick 8.06) and 12-team standard (pick 8.11). There’s path to an RB2 finish as the Dolphins’ No. 1 back, and maybe even a top-20 finish for those that want to be a little more optimistic. But draft day value/sleeper appeal is not the same as confidently predicting a full-on breakout. If the breakout bar is set at the top-20 or low-end RB2 area, Breida is basically a coin-flip based on a backfield split and his ability to stay on the field.
2020 Projection: 150 carries for 695 yards, 3 TD; 40 receptions for 310 yards, 1 TD
Breakout Confidence: 53 percent
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