Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Mecole Hardman

WR Mecole Hardman (Kansas City Chiefs | 2nd Year

2019 Stats: 26 receptions for 538 yards, 6 TD; 17 rushing yards

With Tyreek Hill‘s situation up in the air, the Kansas City Chiefs added a reasonable facsimile when they took Mecole Hardman in the second round of the 2019 draft. Hill wound up avoiding league discipline, but he suffered a collarbone injury in Week 1, and missed the following four games.

Those four games were Hardman’s highest target totals of the season.

Week 2 (at Raiders): 6 targets-four catches for 61 yards, 1 TD
Week 3 (vs. Ravens): 5 targets-two catches for 97 yards, 1 TD
Week 4 (at Lions): 5 targets-two catches for nine yards
Week 5 (vs. Colts): 6 targets-four catches for 79 yards

From Week 6-8, helped by touchdowns in Week 7 and 8, Hardman only needed nine total targets to post 8.5, 10.8 and 13.5 fantasy points (full PPR). Through Week 8, he was a respectable WR27 in standard scoring (WR36 in full PPR) with 20 receptions for 374 yards and four touchdowns.

But over the final eight games, Hardman’s role dried up. He had just six catches on nine targets over that span, with seven zero or one-catch games. If not for 63 and 48 yard touchdowns on his only catches in Week 10 and Week 14, he would not have topped 30 yards in any of those eight games.

Hardman seemed lined up for a Year 2 breakout heading into the offseason. Then Sammy Watkins took a pay cut to stay with the Chiefs, and they re-signed Demarcus Robinson. So even with a prolific offense to provide opportunities for multiple guys, there are a lot of mouths to feed. Week-to-week fantasy consistency stands to be elusive for anyone this side of Hill and Patrick Mahomes.

Hardman should see some more opportunities this year, but what that will yield is hard to know. His 20.7 yards per catch and over 11 yards after the catch from last year aren’t realistically sustainable, but more volume would offset that.

Hardman is a dynamite dynasty prospect, and looking toward 2021 he’s a legit top-end third-year breakout candidate. For this year he’s best left as no better than a late-round flier on draft day, with surefire priority add on waiver wires if he shows himself as the best Chiefs’ wide receiver after Hill.

2020 Projection: 48 receptions for 770 yards, 6 TD

Breakout Confidence: 25%

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