Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Noah Fant

TE Noah Fant | Denver Broncos | 2nd Year

2019 Stats: 40 receptions for 562 yards, 3 TD

The Denver Broncos made Noah Fant the 20th overall pick in the 2019 draft, but he was the second tight end drat bind college teammate T.J. Hockenson. Fant set Broncos records for a rookie tight end with 40 catches and 462 yards, but he cited the inconsistency he battled last year in recent comments to the team website.

“I saw that (need for consistency) all over the place,” “I was a rookie. I was up and down, I was side to side — any direction you could go. I flashed really good plays of greatness and some really bad plays. I feel like as a rookie putting up almost 600 yards and three touchdowns, that was a good starting point for me, but I also wanted to do a lot better. I left a lot of yards and a lot of touches out there on the field.”

Whether you credit him with four of five drops last year, Fant’s drop rate (6.2 or 7.6 percent) was too high. Two of his three touchdowns were from 25 yards out or more, and his two 100-yard games (three catches for 115 yards and a touchdown in Week 9 against the Browns; four catches for 113 yards and a touchdown against the Texans in Week 14) were highlighted by catch-and-runs of 75 yards (for a touchdown against Cleveland) and 48 yards (against Houston).

The Broncos used three quarterbacks last year, and here’s how Fant’s stats were split.
With Joe Flacco-Eight games: 20 receptions for 185 yards, 1 TD (33 targets); never more than 37 yards in a game
With Brandon Allen-Three games: 10 receptions for 189 yards, 1 TD (19 targets), over 50 yards twice
With Drew Lock-Five games: 10 receptions for 188 yards, 1 TD (14 targets), over 50 yards twice

If you landed on Fant as a streamer in Week 4 (two catches for 31 yards, 1 TD), Week 9 (three catches for 115 yards, 1 TD), Week 11 (four catches for 60 yards), Week 14 (four catches for 113 yards, 1 TD) or even Week 15 (two catches for 56 yards), you got something out of him. But he topped 5.0 full PPR fantasy points in just three other games, and they all came with Flacco under center on or before Week 8.

With an eye on surrounding Lock with more talent, the Broncos signed running back Melvin Gordon and used first, second and fourth round picks respectively on two wide receivers (Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler) and a tight end (Albert Okwuegbunam, Lock’s college teammate at Missouri). Courtland Sutton is still the No. 1 wide receiver in Denver, and now there are more mouths to feed.

That Fant was much of any use in fantasy at all last year makes him a rare breed among rookie tight ends. A better Broncos’ offense, assuming Lock takes the step he’s expected to, will benefit everyone. New coordinator Pat Shurmur has typically made good use of tight ends, and Fant is as athletic as they come at the position.

Via Fantasy Football Calculator, Fant is going at TE12 (pick 11.02) in 12-team full PPR and TE11 (pick 9.09) in 12-team standard scoring. He finished as TE16 in standard and full PPR scoring last year, so a jump to essentially a weekly starter feels within reach this year.

Any faith in Fant, or any of Denver’s skill players this year, is firmly rooted in the level of faith someone has in Lock in his first full season as the starter. Fortunately for Fant, he has an easier path to being a top-10-12 player at his position, rooted in better consistency and getting more looks in the red zone (nine red zone targets last year, four in one game). Still, he’ll have to maximize his opportunities down the pecking order for targets.

2020 Projection: 55 receptions for 693 yards, 5 TD

Breakout Confidence: 62%

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